The truly deceptive fact that is ignored herein, is that the vote was stopped at a point by each of the Democratic polling places in swing states where voting irregularities took place, that had President Trump leading by wide margins. These coincidental time stoppages, (mid- 4am) enabled pollsters to be able to determine just how many votes were needed to be added by the mailin ballots to over come Trump's lead. Then they resumed the count bringing in ballots (likely that generally only had a single presidential vote for Biden on it, with no other down ballot vote, also likely an illegal vote), proving that those were likely illegal votes, just because of that suspicious indicator! Either we fight for only the honest votes or we might as well never trust any voting again!
No. The GOP knows how to cheat and make up complete misleading bullshit all on their own. I would love to discuss issues and policy. Obviously, you know nothing about the subject.
the Democrats (a criminal syndicate masquerading as a political party) has been stuffing ballot boxes since 1868; they've got a 152 year head start. So take your indoctrinated schizophrenia and go suck ChiCom wiener.
bull shitskies. TFG, on his egotistical power trip, couldn't conceive of the possibility of losing (losing isn't a possibility for a narcissist ) so seven months before the election he cooked up a rationale for what if he did lose? Well it couldn't happen, so if it appeared that he lost it had to be because of massive fraud. He spent seven months building up that, conning his base, so they were all on board with his bull shit when he did lose. Problem was, he had NO - ZERO- credible evidence. But he conned you and much of the country that he was right, lack of facts be damned.
I’m on your side. Trump will be re-elected, even if it has to be a reverse Coup. A Coup of the Coup.
It’s funny they used the same language with the initial Hunter Biden story. “Baseless claims”, “disinformation”, and it has backfired.
It takes the truth a little time to push through the lies. FB, Google, and Twitter will not succeed in suppression. Section 230 will be repealed and they will immediately get hit with a steady stream of lawsuits. There will not be enough lawyers to defend them all.
he doesn't care if he's elected or shoved in in a coup - as long as he has power. then welcome to the FSA - FASCIST STATES OF AMERICA, because all he cares about his himself and his power trip.
Go ahead. Discuss. I am quite versed in all this and I will take you up on it. Go first. Oh, I do not mean advanced math so stay away from all of that.
The "fact checkers" point out that all these spikes were due to the largest cities in these states all reporting their absentee votes in one batch that was heavily skewed to Biden. This ignores the fact that these ballots were counted in secret without party observers and may well have contained unregistered, illegal, or multiply counted ballots. The Wayne county recount found 171,000 votes that did not correspond to registered voters but were certified anyway. The fact that they all showed up at the same time looks more like the old-fashioned "bums rush" approach to ballot stuffing. Without thorough audits of these ballots no one can be sure this was legitimate at this point.
Yeah they cheated heavily and now they lie. Coming up with all sorts of mental gymnastics to justify this. Yet in summary, this whole thing is so off that the committed fraud is obvious to everyone with two eyes. I really hope they strike this down in the Supreme Court.
Says this BentOver one on a page full of credible evidence. As Another One said, and I paraphrase, "if you were blind then you'd have an excuse for not seeing the truth, but since you insist that you can see, then you are simply a liar."
If TFG had actual verifiable facts, he wouldn't have has to beg, plead, and harass election officials to change the counts. but he didn't. He lost, fair and square. .
SCOTUS will strike this down and Trump is coming out on top. He will not let them get away with this. 98.5% of his base do not want him to concede because he did not lose. He is actually winning electorally if the country was run legally. It is contested and there was no deadline constitutionally and until SCOTUS rules, nobody officially won any of those states that Google wants to censor and claim is over. It is actually funny because nobody is noticing or fighting for the obvious. The entire situation should have stopped at the poll watchers being persecuted all over the swing states in a strategic Hitler like method, which they always forget to hold a mirror in front of their face when they make accusations. The problem we have is that we let them change the subject and then go along the rabbit trail that leads nowhere.
It is like:
Rep: You killed this person
Dem: No I did not
Rep: We have footage
Dem: you guys cheat
Rep: No we dont
Dem: How about 20 years ago
Rep: that was a one time thing
Dem: You are in trouble you murderer
Rep: No. Im not
Social Media: Rep fact checked and proven to be murderer
MSM: Rep are murderers
General Public, Academia, Hollywood: Rep are murderers. You guys are racist and you are trying to stage a Coup
No whichever side you are on facts and fact checkers are a positive . let the data challenge your perceptions and free you from your prison cell echo chambers. Were all in them.Most people on both sides of this are good people. I made mistake of engaging deeply a few weeks back and can already sense I'm getting annoyed and ruder with my posts
The ballots were not counted in secret and there were republican and democrat observers. trumps lawyers have admitted this in court because they cannot lie there the way they can in the media.
And funny how these only happened in swing states. You would think NYC or LA or Chicago, or some of the other heavily urban areas would have similar vote dumps.
These swing states are where Republican controlled legislatures prohibited any absentee ballot processing before election day. The spikes happened long after election-day in-person votes have been counted, leaving absentees, which already lean blue, but furthermore are from heavily blue large population centers. Not saying audits or recounts shouldnt happen, but to say that thspikes prove fraud is simply insufficient. Quite the contrary, if audits and recounts turn up no large disparities, and courts ultimately rule against Trump then all sides should abide by the election. Same goes if the supreme court rule for Trump
Most of the states have rules that don't allow any processing of ballots until election day. Pennsylvania has this law but in the larger heavily Democrat cities it was ignored and ballots were opened before election day. Voters whose ballots had errors were called and allowed to come correct their errors. That in itself is not illegal but it can't be done before election day. The rural areas, more Republican, followed the state law. Having extra time to do this is a big advantage. Furthermore, not every state counts ballots in the same order. Some count mail-in/absentee ballots first, some last, and some don't follow any order. The one huge vote dump in MI or WI had a 95%-5% ratio. That big of a ratio could only be seen in DC and even there it wouldn't be all at once. In a state that was close or very close it just doesn't happen without a lot of ballot stuffing.
The spikes happened in the early morning hours of Wednesday. There was no meaningful oversight of paper ballots coming in or the tallying of the non-paper votes.
Sending millions of unsolicited ballots left millions left over for the election officials to play with. Democrats and their values are disastrous to the continuance of our republic.
This is a communist(=globalist) movement embedded in our society that needs to be dealt with.
Democrats improved from 2016 to 2020 by 2.7% in non battleground states and 2% in swing states on average. Much of new York just came in last week post this study which is why lead now 7 million plus. No clue on LA. Detroit hugely democrat and the dump percentage actually better than Republicans normally do.
Detroit. 3% republican 2016 2% 2012. 1.8% 2008. Trump did better in than dump than that and you don't even have to factor maiI in so he did considerably better than I would have expected. Just straight percentage...sense I'm becoming obsessed ..posted this 100 times and still waiting to see if one person who didn't already lean toward my view of the analysis would find it compelling
This is math not science. There are no testable hypotheses in this piece. The only thing their math shows is that it takes longer to count votes when they are in bigger groups(i.e. cities) and that each of the 4 states has a big city with lots of democratic voters.
I’m a Mathematician/statistician. Yes math is science. And data follows a smooth curve when there is enough of it. When it doesn’t, that alone is evidence of fraud. Not to mention all the rest. Tell me you science credentials. And if you don’t think math is science then don’t ever see a dr or get the vaccine or believe Covid etc... because we’re the guys that do all the science there.
There is also a more fundamental way to resolve the question of you received more votes. It's called an audit, which Georgia did, a recount which Wisconsin and Georgia did, and extensive controls like 3 memeber(democrat, republican, indecent) teams to count votes and certify votes which every state did.
Not at all impressed with your engineering degree as it relates to mathematics/statistics. I’m married to an engineer and have a son that’s an engineer. I also worked with all engineers with a DoD contractor for many years. You guys are not too good with math and statistics. And no nothing like that happened. They simply recounted the fraud. There were no controls. It was a duplication of election night.
Exactly right. Yes, the ballot stuffing was done. The envelopes were not preserved. It was impossible to verify the ballots. They just re-counted. It was not a forensic examination.
Your husband/son must be environmental or sanitation engineers or perhaps one of the many backyard engineers that make perpetual motion machines. As for your abilities you've stated none but I'm certain my skills are far better than yours. While I know it's difficult to face the reality that to actually steal a presidential election, “the size of the conspiracy would have to be enormous”. It would require a mole in 1000's of election precincts or the Postal Service, such a conspiracy would require a coordinated, mailbox-to-mailbox operation, one with access to a huge stolen database of voter signatures and Social Security numbers. This simply did not happen. If you can't fathom that, you are simply going to have to sulk because Biden will take office on January 20, 2021 and you will have participated in making the country less great not more.
Circular reasoning. You have no evidence of fraud. The Trump campaign hasn't introduced any evidence in court. They can assert any old nonsense in the media, but not in court.
Georgia merely recounted already counted fraudulently entered ballots. And...they prevented observers from observing. Oh, and then there are the commercial PO Boxes having multiple absentee ballots associated with each, resulting in a multiplier. Oh...and then there are the people who found out someone had voted for them, and their provisional was not counted. Apparently you have not looked at the non-compliant things GA officials did.
Audits would need to compare paper ballot counts against machine tabulated numbers, I am not sure that this has been done or can be done! The statistical analysis of the data, assuming the 50 States use similar procedures is useful to identify counts that don't conform. It points out anomalies to target further investigations. The report clears most of the States and points to areas for further scrutiny. There was fraud, this has been proven, the next step is to determine if it was enough to affect the election.
U clearly passed the stupid exam and failed common sense. In the Audit GOP wanted signatures verified because counting fraudulent votes is still fraud. This FRAUD is centered on the basic premise of include fraudulent votes into the mix where they cannot be discerned from legitimate votes. Only option all votes not verified are failed - option sue the election committee (all Democrats)
Disagree your math. 1000 small dumps of little townships and one big dump of a large city such a Philadelphia. How do you compare these different data dumps mathematically? Philadelphia has 94% for Biden, is that not allowed?
Hypothetical test: let's redo voting in the disputed areas. it's not going to take a lot of both time and money and would remove any doubts. now name a single democrat who would support this.
Yeah its not allowed because you could go to literally any precinct in the entire country and if you run an audit and verify and only count the legal registered votes in that precinct there is no way in hell Biden is taking 94 percent of the vote. So no it's not allowed.
Watch a video explaining the anomalies. I can’t possibly educate you here. And no it’s not just mathematically and statistically improbable, it’s impossible. 1/62,000 chance is 0 chance. It’s math. Clearly you can’t do arithmetic.
Philadelphia went 85% for Obama, 82% for Hillary. This year, Philly shows 81% Biden(95% reporting). So, yes, a single LARGE dump showing 94% for Biden would be suspect. A small report from Philly showing 94% would be expected and is accounted for in the analysis. The article compares margin and log-ratio for this reason. In fact, nothing from PA shows up as anomalous in this particular analysis (which isn't to say there was no cheating in PA, if you watched the PA legislature hearing from the end of November, you'll see a forensic analyst claiming PA had suspicious updates happening consistently throughout the day-- but I haven't done a close look at those claims yet).
In the article above, you can see a HUGE dump from NY shows up in the outliers with the swing state updates. But some boroughs of NYC went 88% for Hillary, and even then outlier update in the NYT data is still only around 80% for Biden. Also, the big NY update happened around 9:00 PM, not in the middle of the night, so really no surprises there. Plus, it's New York. The city alone has 8 million people, only slightly less than the entire state of Michigan.
Let's go into details. The article analyzed four abnormal data dumps, two of them in MI:
"An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump".
"An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump".
Let's add the two MI dumps together, it is 195,755 votes for Biden, 10,686 votes for Trump. That is 94.8% for Biden, 5.2% for Trump.
Let's look at Detroit, according to https://detroitmi.gov/webapp/election-results , Detroit as whole, 233,908 votes for Biden, 12,654 votes for Trump. That's 94.9% for Biden, 5.1% for Trump.
Now, do you really think the two abnormal data dumps are indication of fraud? Or do you think these two large dumps are both come from Detroit?
Mathematics is a language of numbers. While a language, it is a hard language, not a soft-philosophical one. At its core, mathematics is the stuff of the matrix which expresses the interrelatedness of all things. And yes, non-conforming points from data curves can indicate anomalies (which could be interpreted as identifying suspect data points...and in this case, fraud.)
Excuse me, neither a scientist nor mathematician, but smart enough to know that this is bs: "When [data] doesn't [follow a smooth curve], that alone is evidence of fraud."
I agree with you except for the "evidence of fraud". Their is evidence of an outlier that cant be explained. The next step would be to identify all the factors that may cause the outlier to test if these factors can in fact explain it. Unfortunately with only four observations this isnt going to be likely so we have four outliers that we cant explain. This in itself does not prove fraud.
They appear pretty easy to explain. Also analysis would no longer show them close to biggest outlier I believe anymore ...I did not rerun this analysis. .big chunk of New York just came in earlier today and bumped Biden's lead by additonal 600k to 6.94 million dwarfing these others but for same general reason....areas of hugely democratic big cities.
Correction my 600k increase in lead was right and Biden now up 7.05 million but my ratio is off and it wasn't the largest as I implied. Nothing needed , double checked all the Detroit data I posted and that was correct. Trump outperformed historically in that data dump
Wrong. These don’t represent single data points but 1,000’s of votes. That proves massive fraud. There’s also many other points. Such as the physical impossibility of inputting these at the rate they were tabulated.
Exactly right. It's amazing to me that so many self-professed geniuses in this discussion only accept a single possibility for whatever statistical anomaly they think they've found. The irony is this: By accepting only a single possible explanation, they show how little they know about statistical analysis. That includes you Jared. You too T-B-V.
Yes, math is science, that's not the problem here. Explain to me how a "smooth curve" is applied to the "REPORTING OF VOTES" timing. This analysis isn't "complaining" about the physical count of votes, but the UPDATES. The process of REPORTING VOTES is dictated by the office of the secretary of state in each of these states. That's not to imply that the process is fixed and unchanging. So, I'll ask again, how do you curve fit that process?
Smooth curve applies to reporting of votes because votes are reported in batches of different size. The relevant expectation here, which you would understand if you had spend more time reading the article instead of posting disingenuous attacks in the comments, is that as the margin of victory for any given reported batch of votes increases, the probability of an extreme ratio decreases.
In theory, it doesn't really matter the mechanism for sorting the report batches. So long as the reporting mechanism is agnostic with regards to the content of the vote totals, the assertion should hold. Take 2016 San Francisco as an example. It went 85% for Hillary, with about 400,000 votes. Imagine 100,000 votes are reported in a batch. What are the odds of 96,900 of those will all be reported for Hillary? Almost zero. It does not matter where they came from at this point. The ratio is just too skewed to be believable for a sample of 100,000 votes, even in a place where we know is already heavily skewed.
What you need to explain, is why anyone would any state selectively withhold reports of Biden votes, only to report them all in the dead of night under circumstances that immediately makes everyone suspicious of fraudulent activity?
I fully understood the "expectation" as you call it. I don't know that the homogeneity of the batches must follow the expectation that you have. It's been a while but shouldn't a confidence interval calculation have been done here? The author uses the phrase "almost impossible to believe" which, honestly, you don't see in papers that would be submitted for peer review. I hope this work is thoroughly reviewed by experts who also have access to the data needed to do a proper review. As to your question about "witholding" the reporting, I hope a thorough investigation provides you with an answer.
I’m not sure what your asking. But a large vote dump with a distribution of 99% to Biden between 1 and 4 am, that couldn’t be inputted at the rate it was, where the ballots can’t be produced is fraud. Just the 99% alone is fraud.
I can't speak to the "rate of input" but the posts here by "Ross Stalker" touch on factors that could explain it. I tend to agree that 99% of any particular batch, of a significant size of course, would raise eyebrows. I just haven't researched that particular claim enough to be able to comment.
It points out anomalies to target further investigations. The report clears most of the States and points to areas for further scrutiny. There was fraud, this has been proven, the next step is to determine if it was enough to affect the election.
Actually there is. There are only two reasons a curve isn’t smooth: not enough data or fraud. The more data, the more smooth the curve. And we have plenty of data here. And “non-random discrete data” is complete gibberish. Is that something the Ministers of Propaganda told you? Discrete variables have nothing to do with actuals. Lol.
You've already made clear in other posts that you are almost certainly lying about your background. If you think that "discrete data" is gibberish, you are obviously not a mathematician or statistician. I'm only being combative because of your attitude toward other comments here.
Discrete data can only take on specific values. You can't have 0.52852 votes. In this data, some ranges of values are less frequent than others. Most of the updates were very small. The top tenth percentile in the Edison data were around 30,000 and they range up to over 1,000,000. If you look at the distribution of update sizes (I have) it is not Gaussian. It's not even log-normal and may follow a power law distribution.
So in a sense it is sort of true that it is due to a lack of data, but not because of sample size but because of either how things happened to be reported or, if it is correlated to counties, because there is not actually a smooth distribution of populations in reality.
The updates themselves are not random samples of state-wide votes; an update might be heavy on mail-in ballots from part of a city, each of which might be biased toward one candidate. Together, it could make it very biased. But that would vary from city to city. The variation in vote ratio goes up with size. This is evidence supporting variation between cities and suggests that there are confounding variables.
Combine those factors, you will probably see large sudden jumps in any cumulative plot of total votes. Since larger updates are also more rare, there is not enough data to be confident enough to call any of these anomalies.
Your statement: "When it doesn't, that alone is evidence of fraud." This is 100% incorrect. It is evidence of a yet to be explained influence. You, and so many others, want to believe it is fraud but it may be something else.
The only safe way to explain it is to tell the 6 states that they must not certify results. Trump is then the President.
Biden should be allowed to challenge on the basis that all 6 states hand over the machines ballots envelopes and any video etc to a special investigator with bi partisan control. The scope will be to charge ANYONE found guilty of any fraud with TREASON.
I would put money on Biden saying he is just going to moan for the next 4 years. None of the senior party or the heads of Google/Facebook/Twitter etc etc and 90% of the press would dare risk the death penalty
If you saw data that showed trump outperformed republicans in this dataset for detroit since.at least 2008 would that change your mind on that one item. I'm having similar discussion with someone not online and trying to figure.out how to reach them. Also on the other side I have someone that has went the other way and literally thinks trump is controlled by the devil and I'm trying to reach them as well. These are both good people and feel like they are.both going.down a rabbit hole and trying out logic and data on a.bunch of sites to see what resonates and.feels.like nothing does with either extreme and its really depressing
You're bringing up some very "big picture" issues and I'm trying to stick to this particular mathematical analysis and interpretation. And states didn't "stop the voting". Let's see your proof they did.
Your statement: "When it doesn't, that alone is evidence of fraud." This is 100% incorrect. It is evidence of a yet to be explained influence. You, and so many others, want to believe it is fraud but it may be something else.
That's not what this math shows...it shows that the vote counting AND reporting in high populous battleground state cities were vastly anomalous to almost every other precinct in the US. It's highly suspicious that these extremes in counting/reporting would exist in key battleground state cities.
There is no VAST anomaly in these datapoints. They're just the most extreme values which are expected in any sampling study. Statistically speaking, it is not unexpected to see outliers this large based on the overall distribution. The author likely knows this and provided p-values based on an illegitimate null hypothesis. Based on the overall handling of the data manipulation (term intentionally used), I would be very surprised if the author didn't do this intentionally as a way to mislead non-or lay- scientists.
Votes coming in by mail will NOT be randomly distributed and that's the whole point (and where this author made their critical error/attempt to deceive)!
At 6:31AM there was a report in Michigan of Biden getting 141,257 votes vs 5,968 for Trump, a 96.9% ratio. You have failed to explain that. You can't just dismiss a sample that large as an "outlier." That's roughly the population of Kansas City.
Er, that's what the whole analysis is about. A practicing statistician would not pinpoint that datapoint as an obvious anomaly. In fact, it's no more of an outlier than the Fig 10 datapoints at -1,9 or -8,-1. Now those three datapoints at x = -1, and y < -8 are SUSPICIOUS - we do not expect three values grouped so far beyond the tail - I wonder what kind of hanky panky was going on there...?
But did they also have high volumes of mail in votes, AND have state laws that meant those ballots couldn't be processed before Election Day? Because that's an important difference between these states and other states.
Would that window happen to be in the middle of the night? I think so and not so odd. Please tell me why reporting has to stop when counting stops. I think we can agree that reporting must occur after counting. How much time delay do you think is reasonable between the ending of counting and reporting?
It's actually the opposite. Counting continued all night long. There wasn't any reporting because counts aren't reported until the large absentee counting boards were completed and reconciled. A lot of people don't seem to understand that the results from ballot counting don't happen in real time.
Counting is very important...the TIMING of reporting is much less so. So, for the moment, may be focus on counting? In what ways was vote counting "vastly anomalous"?
The problem is the elimination of the verification stage by the Dems through litigation before the election and that can't be fixed. Once you get a ballot post verification (signature, ID, etc.) and it is separated from its envelope, it is unidentifiable. If it is fraudulent, then you have succeeded in getting it into the process with no way to retrieve it. So a recount would just recount the same fraudulent votes introduced into the system. The only way to fix it is to void the elections in these states and have a snap election, in person, with ID. If Biden won by these margins, then he will win again. If there were hundreds of thousands of fraudulent votes, however, Biden will lose bigly.
That's the thing about conspiracist ideations, there is always a "gotcha". So, what you are saying here is that a massive fraud has taken place by which illegal votes were injected into the system. But the perpetrators, while masterful at injecting those votes, screwed up on the timing of the act? In other words, they should have "spread it out"? Of course, your statement about elimination of verification is just plain false.
The authors visually suggest that the certain updates in MI, WI and GA look anomalous (e.g. in joint extremity of vote ratios and vote differences, in update times, etc.), relative to other updates from the counties and states in question, as well as to updates from other counties across the country, including other urban Democrat strongholds.
The next step would be to test whether the claims made in the visual demonstration are statistically significant, given reasonable assumptions about the data generating process. With almost 9k updates across the country, including multiple updates per county and a large number of urban counties, it might be feasible to do that.
Your claim is that urbanisation alone explains these apparent anomalies. If it does, then updates from similarly urbanised counties elsewhere in the country should appear to be similarly anomalous. Based on the authors’ visual story, that doesn’t seem to be the case. To be convincing, that visual argument should be supported by a model that produces testable hypotheses about the extremity of updates, given all of these variables like urbanisation, state law, etc.
An important variable many people are ignoring are when ballots are counted and reported. For example, in Michigan, absentee ballots couldn't not be counted before Election Day. With a record breaking vote and a record number of absentee ballots, it was going to take long into the night and into the next day, in some cases, to count all the ballots. That delayed the reporting of results in some jurisdictions. In states that allowed those ballots to be counted before Election Day, like Florida and Ohio, those results were reported almost immediately, no matter the size of the jurisdiction. Most of these "anomalies" are nothing more than artifacts of how and when the votes were reported.
So I’m curious, do we know when the absentee ballots boards reported? Are these reports published? If there are 1500 AB boards, did they all report at the same time?
Mathematics and logic is 1 of the 4 branches of science. Both show this was a Fraudulent election as does probability. like Trump won 26 of the 27 40 year bellweather counties,51 of the 57 10 year and all of the 27 seats the democrats targetted! would be the only sitting president to get more votes and lose(11 million)only president in 150 years to win Ohio & Florida and lose.Biden won with more% votes in 4 cities than Kim jong Un,Sadat and Sadam Hussein! but did not have the same results in other cities of comparable population make up. when 24 pallets of votes are transported (evidence says even more) from NY-where they would not be needed to PA where they almost certainly became a 4.30am dump that had to be entered without vetting.
When u have something with scales, gills,swim bladders,cold blooded or live in water it is probably a fish. When it has all 5 IT IS A FISH!
BIden did.better in no battleground states than battleground in improvement from 2016 2.7% to 2%. These anomalies dumps include percentages where trump performed better than any Republican had since at least 2008. Detroit's vote increase from 2016 far less than Michigan or US average. The only president to lose by over 7 million votes....it doesn't look like a fish
Point is that fraud could make sense if trump did worse than historic in anomalies. where he did better that would be a sign of no fraud or trump fraud. 2nd point is people keep saying fraud was in Battleground states and on Nov 5th you could see that Biden did better in improvements from 2016 in battleground states but vote counting kept increasing in non battleground and the reverse is now true as we pass 7 million Biden lead. Showing that this data at least doesn't support some of the narrative.of fraud. Thanks for asking
When you talk about "science" or use the word "science" to refer to something concrete, you are doing hypostasis. The "part" is muddied in the "whole" or the whole in the part. Mathematics is not "science", mathematics is one of the sciences among others; therefore "mathematics is a science" and not "mathematics is science". Problems are not solved by science but by one or more specific scientific categories: math, physics, chemistry, & c. To make a lens you do not resort to medicine, nor to "science", you resort to optics, mechanics, and chemistry (for coatings). When people say that science has solved the origin of the universe: this is pure metaphysics or scientific fundamentalism. Very similar to the use made of other words like "humanity", "democracy", & c.
Wrong. Mathematics is the foundation of all science. Mathematics is the science on which the whole world is based. Man doesn’t invent Mathematics, he discovers it.
In many ways, math is closely related to science. ... Mathematics is such a useful tool that science could make few advances without it. However, math and standard sciences, like biology, physics, and chemistry, are distinct in at least one way: how ideas are tested and accepted based on evidence.
No, math uses logic. Theres a distinction between what Mathematics claims as proof in contrast to science. For a scientist, ten experiments with consistent results might constitute proof, For a mathematician, a million successful experiments is not enough proof. Instead, mathematicians rely on logic. Mathematics is very often inspired by nature, but it is a purely intellectual pursuit. It is just a bunch of ideas in our heads, like philosophy. Pure abstract reasoning. Someone who has a degree in Mathematics is call a mathematician and someone you has a degree in physics, biology, chemistry is call a scientist.
Wow, you actually think math is not science? You think that math was not developed using the scientific method? That statistics was not developed using the scientific method? Statistics itself is the backbone of every higher scientific endeavor. Math is the root science of all other science. Math is the fundamental science that holds all other science together. I'm amazed that you think math is not science when it is the foundation science of all other science.
Science could not exist without language. language is not tools of science... It is the basis for it.
Meaning there is no such thing as scientific evidence without language... And language is itself scientific evidence.
The above is a false augment. Regarding what should be considered as science, please check with the most influential philosophers of science Karl Popper.
No, that's false. The article's import is that highly "anomalous" voter ratios, particularly in comparison with 3rd party results, are strongly indicative of fraud. Statistical evidence of this type is admitted into evidence in voter fraud cases all the time. Whistleblower affidavits also indicate exactly how it happened.
The analysis is a tool to identify anomalies to target further investigations. The report clears most of the States and points to areas for further scrutiny. There were other lines of evidence that identified fraud, this has been proven, the next step is to determine if it was enough to affect the election.
Science is math, How do you think Scientist can figure out how long it takes to go tot the moon and orbit the earth thru Math. As they say it is scientifically mathematically impossible.
You're assuming each data dump is a random sample of ballots, but that isn't how the process works.
Verification of mail-in ballots. Ballots sent for adjudication. Transcribed ballots. All reasons that batches of ballots might not be reported in the same order that they were counted. And that's all perfectly normal.
There's no expectation of uniformity between counties on how they will report their unofficial results.
Also if someone just put numbers in manually, that would be discovered during the state elections board canvass of counties.
What you're ignoring is that these winning vote dump anomalies only happened in the 4 swing states in 4 updates in the middle of the night. If it was legitimate we could expect to see similar midnight reporting spikes in many other states and big cities like L. A., New York, Seattle, etc. where tons of democrats also used mail in voting. Nope, we only see it in the" too close to call "swing states where Trump was winning before the dumps happened. Fraud.
What you're ignoring is that results reported on election night are always unofficial, and are separate from the official tabulation for certification by the state canvassing boards, and also that different states have different rules around the processing of ballots.
You wouldn't expect to see a "midnight reporting spike" in New York. Why? Because New York didn't even start processing mail-in ballots until November 6th! And their process for verifying mail-in ballots is particularly slow as well. NY was called for Biden by the networks on the basis of early and on-the-day in-person voting. But it took more than a week for all the House races to be called.
As for Seattle? Almost everyone in Washington votes by mail, and ballots are alloweed to arrive as late as November 23 (so long as they are postmarked in time). In Washington the counties can start processing mail-in ballots as soon as they receive them, and they release updated totals once at the end of each day. With the vast majority of ballots being mail-in, and with them being processed and reported on a rolling basis, mail-in ballots don't cause a "spike" here, midnight or otherwise.
As for Los Angeles; California has a long history of mail-in voting. It is another state where mail-in ballots can be processed before Election Day. They aren't counted before Election Day, but if they arrive early enough that staff aren't totally focused on Election Day prep (i.e. before the weekend preceding Election Day) they are verified and ready to count. So in most counties, the first votes reported will be mail-in votes that arrived early, then in-person early votes - and THEN in-person on the day votes. Followed by mail-in votes that weren't processed before Election Day. So again, mail-in ballots in California don't cause that same "spike"... middle of the night or otherwise.
So no. Not fraud. Just low information on your part.
It’s important to add that we don’t see similar anomalies in all of the key swing states. PA, AZ and NV don’t appear have them. Neither do FL and OH.
If what appear to be anomalies were simply artefacts of mass mail-in voting in swing states with Democrat-dominated urban centres, then we’d expect to see similar patterns in other such states, including states that Trump won. The fact that we don’t at least suggests that the explanation isn’t as simple as a combination of mass mail-in voting and Democrat-dominated urban centres.
all mail in ballots have to have observers of both parties watching the envelope opening. at 011 to 0700 there were none so not a single vote in these batches was legal. That is a loss of hundreds of thousands of votes for Biden in every state. In any case the legislatures cannot certify unless there is a complete investigation and only Trump will do that
As I already said, the unofficial vote totals are not updated in real-time, a batch could be added to the unofficial totals after it has actually been counted. That's the nature of the unoffical totals, although they are updated in batches there's no expectation that the counties need to try and do this in real-time. Adding numbers to those unofficial totals isn't what makes those numbers 'legal'. There's a separate process of tabulation for the state election board's canvassers which is what makes the numbers official.
But on the issue of mail-in ballots, you are even more wrong. Because the ballot envelope opening, and verification of whether or not the ballot should be accepted, is a separate process from the counting of the mail-in ballots that have been accepted.
I think you should stop speculating on these things until you go and actually look learn about how the process works on the ground. Maybe watch some of the videos from the different counts - there are many. Because knowing that the validation and the counting of the mail-in ballots are two separate processes, that could happen hours apart (or in the states where they're allowed to validate them before Election Day, could happen days or even weeks apart), is a REALLY basic bit of knowledge about how the process works.
And honestly, it's frankly embarassing for you that you didn't know this, and yet in another comment you said with absolute certainty that we should "accept that there was probably fraud" so it's "on balance better to keep the current incumbent". You are really in no position to allege that the things you're noticing are evidence of fraud when you clearly lack this very basic knowlege of how the count process works generally.
Believe it bitch.....I took 2 statistics courses as part of my major in Mechanical Engineering (Bachelor of Science t*rdface). And I aced both the 200 level stats course and the 400 level Statistics for Engineering. Statistics is cake.....as if I care what you think of me. Moron.
But they aren't in many cases. They are images standing in for ballots. Electronic "image" ballots that were recorded by humans who were not the original voter.
Ok, you're telling me that the original hard copy ballots are no longer available in these states? If true that is a surprise to me and it doesn't seem wise. But, as others like Miss1776 have pointed out, if the ballots themselves were fraudulent then the recount is meaningless. So, at the end of the day, I withdraw my suggestion to recount.
Straw man argument that you make over and over again. Once the ballots are removed from the envelopes they are untethered to an actual, legal voter. Counting illicit ballots over and over again is how we got here and why the anomalies exist.
How convenient for your side. You just described a situation that appears unwinnable. This statistical analysis isn't enough in court. If there was fraud, you need to provide more than statistics.
So then you go to precinct level data in Detroit and find precincts with over 95% voter turnout and many with over 100% of registered voters. So tell us again?
You'd have to supply a link or reference. I believe many of the >100% reports are explained by on-site Election Day voter registration. In my opinion this is terrible public policy: (1) undermines integrity of voter rolls, (2) encourages voting by people who don't care enough to bother registering beforehand.
But the article is a statistical approach to identifying potential fraud, and I'll try harder to keep my comments on-topic.
Nope. That's not what it is. Pattern analysis is a statistical analysis that requires data from many many elections (when applied to elections) and does not work for anomalous elections like this one (i.e. unprecedented turnout). In addition, as with all stats analysis, the result is a possible answer and not the ground truth because, when dealing with people, there's a huge element of randomness.
You are uneducated fool for thinking this analysis is garbage. If you think having a candidate of your choice sit as President is more important than the future of our elections then you deserve to lose your citizenship. Millions of people have died protecting our constitution. I used to always vote Democrat but over the years the party has been taken over by criminals who are trying to destroy our constitution. As America wakes up the Democrat party is falling apart and more people are moving away from them which is why they cheat. Trump rallies would have 10’s of thousands show up with traffic backed up so badly many thousands more couldn’t even get in and the most people Biden had at any rally was 14 people. That was a good turn out for him too. Wake the fuck up man
Biden voters didn't and don't need to go rallies. As a republican, I will also say that rallies are stupid, and serve no purpose. They were basically voting against Trump, not *for* Biden.
- People who voted for Biden are very concerned about Covid19, tend to wear masks and socially distance. Of course they would follow the advice to avoid big crowds.
- People who voted for Trump were generally less alarmed about the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, his tightly packed rallies left high numbers of infected people in their wake.
This also explains the mail-in votes skewed for Biden (aside from people who were very clear that they wanted to get rid of Trump perhaps also wanting to vote in advance so they could say, been there, done that.... vs. whatever might happen on Election Day)
Well, and trump literally told his supporters not to vote by mail because their votes wouldn't get counted... That maybe played a role in why mail in was skewed toward biden. Just a thought, you know, because reasons.
I don't think this analysis is garbage, but after a lot of thought, I don't think it points to anything meaningful. I think there has to be better evidence out there and this is a distraction from finding it. I just wish it would come out. I've so far been very let down by what has been presented as evidence and was really disappointed after watching the star witness in Michigan, particularly during her interview with Lou Dobbs. Maybe our president has the wrong people running this. Interesting side note, while I lined up to vote for our president, I do know more than a handful of my republican friends voted for biden by mail, not because they like him, but against Mr Trump. I can't imagine what they were thinking, but they did. Purely anecdotal, but it did make me wonder.
Did you read Joe's remark? "Millions of people have died protecting our constitution." Is it reasonable to assume that would be comprised of all the men and women killed in our many wars?
That’s the mirror pal. It’s science. I’m an actual scientist. Go back to your barista job. And these numbers aren’t just improbable, they’re impossible.
You don’t sound like scientist. I am a guy with 2 masters and one PhD in control systems engineering. So I am must be good at math . There is no correlation between time of vote reporting and number of vote .The number of votes reported are depends on sample size. Higher the sample size , higher the vote . Now, these vote may be mail in ballots counted on side by 100s of machine and aggregated and reported . You can’t correlate timing of votes and numbers to look for patterns. Its equivalent to correlating cars with bread . Two completely unrelated things . Go back to your Geology
Maybe good a math - not at English - and absolutely no common sense! how could these votes happen at 0300 - 0640? there was no counting and no observers so any votes processed at that time would be illegal?
"votes happen'" ? What exactly do you mean by that. You need to learn the entire process. Counting is not the same as release of information. Pretty basic....
Control systems engineering? That isn’t even a real engineer. Lol. Ok. You push paper. What a joke. No you’re not good at math. You suck at math. Absolute gibberish. There is no “sample size” or correlation conversation here. 🤡 The election isn’t a statistical/mathematical exercise, the audit should be. And yes, everything follows a pattern. Everything.
As someone who studied control systems as part of a BSME program, I have to point out that you are clueless. The math involved in this field is very complex. And that specialty is seen in various engineering curricula, Mechanical, Aerospace, Electrical, etc... And this entire thread is mostly about the statistical analysis presented here. This is why those terms are being used. And finally, not everything follows a pattern. At its foundation, statistics teaches us there are "outliers". This is fundamental to the study.
Excellent post and to underscore: "there is no correlation between the TIME OF VOTE REPORTING and NUMBER OF VOTES". By the way, I love those PID control loops. I also focused on control theory but only achieved a lowly BSME.
Wrong again. Amazing. There are things that are mathematically and statistically impossible. Like this election. Maybe do some research about mathematics.
Trust comes from seeing authors/reviewers/editors/journals stake hard-earned professional reputation on the validity of results. Here I see an anonymous blog post.
Math and science do not become "trustworthy" because of the name attached to the work. The name of the author (and credentials, for that matter) should be irrelevant. The data is public, and the analysis is laid out clearly for anyone to refute.
The lack of a name attached to the work means the poster has nothing to lose from being wrong. That doesn't mean he _is_ wrong, but from my standpoint he is _more likely_ to be wrong than someone with an incentive not to be wrong (incentive being the protection of hard-earned reputation).
I am right-winger, but I agree without a name less convincing.
In some cases you do need to publish anonymously - but in this case you just need to own up to it. This site has no real information on who runs it, etc. If they are anonymous because of fear of reprisal just say it in site information.
As a professional, it raises much suspicion that this is an anonymous published paper that is not backed by a legitimate organization. A legitimately published piece would have an author in order to establish that persons credentials. Additionally, the public should be aware of how the effort was funded to understand the presence or lack or influence. For all we know, this could have been authored by a foreign national with interests in creating discord in the US, which it clearly seems to be doing by this post. I understand the premise of the work and it is logical, but don’t agree with the conclusion, in that these anomalies show fraud. Anomalies can be created by a mathematical analysis based on the wrong set of variables, or in other words, by a lack of understanding of how the votes were counted. I am interested in seeing something similar to this from a legitimate source.
You can't apply sophisticated math to a turd and turn it into a gold bar. Read the many posts here from the real engineers, mathematicians, and scientists. Their counterpoint is consistent. Also, at the end of the day, all that matters is the actual physical count of ballots and NOT when the reports were issues.
Surprised you don't understand the scientific method. Did you claim to be a scientist? If you really were a scientist you would know that the S.M. demands that these results must be verified by others.
Mathematics is a very disciplined science unlike the physical sciences. Mathematics proves itself. And many mathematicians are coming to these same conclusions individually which is superior to any “peer review” or white paper. Which are mostly garbage these days.
Well, math "results", like scientific results must be verified. Right? Look at the solution of Fermat's Last Theorem. The initial proof submitted by Wiles was close but not quite correct. Peer review revealed there were problems. Eventually, he provided a rigorous proof.
There is no science here - this is presentation of data in a way that wishes to tell a particular story. The "anomalous" data points shown here are totally expected in any sampling study and statistically-speaking aren't that extreme at all.
Actually no. I’m glad you brought this up. Almost all statistical data is being used as propaganda today so it’s important to understand the difference. Real statistical data always uses raw data, the complete data set, sources the data, and reports the methodology. Propaganda uses manipulated data (or data that has had calculations performed on it), leaves out data, doesn’t source the data and doesn’t report and show the methods. You’re welcome.
Incorrect. Look at the curves and find one other vertical jump even half the size of these. If everyone was looking at these objectively it would jump off the page. Imagine you are looking at a cost of goods analysis for a business instead of such an emotionally charged topic, and you would not be trying to rationalize the irrational.
Er, you're looking at data for two states. I'm originally from England and even I know there are 50 states!!! I guess you totally ignored the data for all 50 states - which is what the authors are hoping. They realize that the mathematically inept will focus on the those charts and forget that the data is cherry picked.
Incorrect. He clearly states that these were specifically picked due to the fact that these were the states that had the largest outliers. Other states did not have these anomalies. Again, dismissing data and ironic name calling due to your emotion attached does not dismiss it.
Depends on the business. In my specialty (medical) crazy outliers for the cost of a good (a specialty drug or an inpatient stay) are very much expected. If I saw this in my own data, I might research it further, but "fraud" (something that's also common in my field) would come after a lot of other benign explanations. The author didn't do nearly enough research to reach any conclusion.
But in those cases, each input can have a drastically different value. A vote is a vote and all are equal value. Even those that point out that it is Detroit which is a larger city and weighted heavily toward Biden votes are forgetting that the author compares Michigan to every other state (with publicly available data). There are several "Biden heavy" states with more densely populated cities like LA, NYC, Chicago, and Boston that did not see these anomalies occur in the middle of the night. I would like to see more data, but if there is a correlation between these being the only "Biden-heavy" urban areas that were in states that were clearly heading toward a Trump victory prior to the stoppages, then it would be naive to dismiss multiple unusual patterns happening in the same manner. And all resulting in the same outcome. This is statistically significant. Not a conspiracy theory. Remove the emotions and just look at it objectively.
The average Democrat and Republican counties differ greatly in size, population, speed of counting, and ratio of absentee vs in person votes. So no the statistics of Trump and Biden county/precincts do not always show the same characteristics. Anomalies are worth investigating, but as the article itself points out, they by themselves are not proof of fraud. The determination of fraud or lack thereof must be made based on the results of th4 investigations and argued out in courts
Clumps? How big a "clump" is 700,000 ballots? a ream of paper is 500 sheets. A case of paper (10 reams or 5,000 sheets) weighs about 20 pounds. 700,000 one-page ballots is the equivalent of 140 cases of paper (2,800 pounds). So a U-Haul truckload of ballots miraculously "materialized" early in the morning in Philadelphia and pushed Biden over the top after trailing by 670,000 votes?
The question is, do they normally report the votes from each machine or do they wait to report a total for a certain time period. If their normal procedure for the night is to report every 6 hours then yes there can be a large jump in a urban area with Amie dense population. If they had been reporting every 30 min then jumped to 6 hours, then there is a problem.
Because they aren't reported in real-time. Counties could report them hours after they actually counted them. That's how unofficial vote totals work. There's no requirement that they be reported real-time.
No, there isn't, because there are many reasons a batch of ballots would be reported later. If the ballots were set aside for adjudication, for example.
This is not science. Science proves a theory by repeated experimentation and testing. Leaving out known critical data is not "science". All these claims are nothing but conjecture and speculation designed to deceive those that do not actually understand statistics or the scientific method.
This is not science. Science proves a theory by repeated experimentation and testing. Leaving out known critical data is not "science". All these claims are nothing but conjecture and speculation designed to deceive those that do not actually understand statistics or the scientific method.
Wrong. Mathematics is all scientific proof. In every science field. The whole universe is founded on mathematics. From outer space to DNA. If you can’t prove your scientific hypothesis through math, you can’t prove it at all.
Yes we do. Science also shows the COVID-19 Pandemic has become HYPER politicized, which is the reason most trump voters cast their ballots in person and most Biden supporters voted long before by mail. Science also shows in person votes are tabulated first and mail in ballots are voted at the end. Let me know if you need more info. Oh, and please don't feed us unproven allegations that even a Trump appointed judge will not entertain.
To the LEFT, RIGHT and MIDDLE... We should ALL be thankful that what is keeping the USA from falling apart are non partisan judges who hold sacred their duties to call balls and strikes, no matter who is throwing the pitch.
You premise of non-partisan judges that are complicit in the biggest crime in US history is an extremely faulty one.
All that considered there was still massive fraud. If you refuse to see mountains of evidence, you refuse to see.
A massive problem was the illegal changing of election laws in all these swing states by a criminal executive branch and judiciary. Of course they want to bury that.
Elections can’t be audited. Recounting the fraud isn’t an audit. This is also illegal. There must be a chain of custody, production of records, reconciliation within a reasonable margin etc...
The voting machines installed by executive fiat is also illegal. Foreign companies should not be given any part in our elections. Machines and software should be available for audit. We do it with casino software all the time. It should not be accessed by anyone after inspection. They should not be on any network. We need to go to a paper ballot system only.
Not allowing GOP poll watchers to observe or harassing and removing them through a complicit police force is also illegal.
I won’t even go into the actual massive fraud that’s been uncovered and documented for the sake of brevity.
No actually I was in honors. I took trig in 8th grade. Calculus my senior year. But you go. Pretty sure you’re the one that failed math. Mathematics is science. So trust the science.
You're missing the point. What's important is the count of votes, not the "updates" or in other words, when they are reported. Go ahead and recount all of the votes in as many states as you want. Oh, wait, that is already underway. In the meantime, this is conspiracist ideation wrapped in a bunch of mathematics. The application of the math doesn't validate any important hypothesis here.
What’s important is not merely a “recount” but verifying that each vote cast against registered voters database and matching the data with appropriate legal voter info
Biden being the only dem voted on a ballot make all the sense in the world. Trump was reviled by many Republicans. They voted for Biden but kept the rest of their ballot Republican.
Say who? But regardless, broken patterns mean broken patterns. Could be fraud, could be something else. Some person (not you) in this discussion brought up 19 counties that have picked the presidential winner correctly for the last X years, etc....except this year of course. In his mind that is evidence of fraud. So, here is my question. How are the people in those counties able to always pick the winner? And more importantly, through what mechanism are they always guaranteed to pick the winner? That chicken-shit was willing to put that crap out there but unwilling to answer these two questions.
Single vote ballots are tracked in Michigan for sure. Look it up.
Those counties are very significant.
They don’t always vote the same.
There are typically 2 or 3 that stray and get it wrong.
The populations of those counties represent a strong statistical. correlation to the Electoral College of the United States.
It’s just a Very high Probability, like 98%, that without very significant change they vote how the electoral college votes. So they vote with “Swing states”.
Of course if the stars align and things could change. But this year way to many stars are aligning. Waaaaaaay to many.
If you want to ignore all the fishy numbers and eye witness accounts. Fine. You’re guy won so no o problem for you. Right?
But, if these numbers and happenings are real.
You had no say in this election. You’re vote did not count. You lost the constitutional right to vote. As did all other Americans. Which is very very bad in the long run for everyone.
Yet another person unwilling to answer my two questions. How do they do it? Why must the win streak never end? Others in this forum are offering this as proof of fraud. Are you? Regarding your question to me. As I've stated plenty of times in my various comments, if fraud did take place it should be prosecuted. In the meantime, I will watch our idiot president continue to berate the republican governor of Georgia, demanding that he "do things" that are outside the scope of his powers.
My view is that the lateness of most of these updates is a scandal in itself. Consider how hard Democrats worked to make the nation think it would be a natural occurrence that the big Democratic margins would get counted very late. Did anyone push Carville and the others to offer a data-based hypothesis for why that would be so? I know Wisconsin and the best hypothesis for why Milwaukee had a very major update at 3:42 AM (7h 42m after the polls closed and 20h 42m after the law authorizes counting to start) is that the Democrats that control Milwaukee wanted it that way. Seriously, Milwaukee had as well-staffed and equipped elections team per vote counted as those counties that were coming in with their results at 10 PM. 11:00 PM? Okay, I buy that. Midnight? Gut feels pretty funny, but possibly. 3:42 AM? Nope, ain't buying what they're trying to sell.
Some counties don't even start counting until the next day, but nobody usually notices because it's possible to call the result before then. Did you even see how long it took all the results to come in from New York?
If you had statistical analysis training, you would not be making this comment. These anomalies are glaring and need to be investigated and determined as to the cause.
The cause is the abnormal number of Trump poll watchers reporting legitimate Biden votes ad fraudulent.
This causes the vote cast to be held until it can be verified and counted by another group of poll workers. The poll watchers, particularly in these battleground states, did this at a very high rate while Democratic poll watchers continued to flag at a normal rate.
The secondary certification typically all get updated once a review session has completed, so if 1000 votes were flagged, all 1000 would be counted once the review for all was completed.
No. The point is that Republican poll watchers were not allowed to see hundreds of thousands of mail-in/absentee ballots in the early hours of Wednesday. Specifically, they were not allowed to verify outer envelopes, signatures, registration status, etc. Look at the videos online that show cardboard being put on windows of people trying to watch from the outside in both PA and MI.
The canvassing process simply reruns separated ballots or uploads the same voting files from flash drives or hard drives, which is why the vote tallies rarely change significantly. The main point is that once a mail-in/absentee ballot is separated from the envelope, there is no way to verify if it is a legal ballot.
The spectators in the room were limited or non-existent. The cardboard video is misinformation to convince you the right is crazy. Some on the right think that’s illegal. They are also confused.
It’s a misinformation campaign designed to confuse everyone while the real theft is more clever. Dig deeper.
Why would people outside of the room not be allowed to see in the room if everything is "transparent" as we have been told?
There are sworn affidavits from people who were there to be poll watchers that contradict your statements. They were there. You and I were not. In a democratic republic, shouldn't people willing to be prosecuted for lying under oath have an opportunity to be heard?
That is untrue. Republican and Democratic observers were in the Detroit vote counting center at all times. It was only on the morning after the election, when mail-in votes reported from Detroit began to be released, that Republicans rushed to the TCF center and demanded to watch the remaining votes be counted. There is a legal limit to the number of people allowed as observers. That limit had already been reached. Some Republican observers left the counting area and were replaced by other Republicans. Later, they attempted to re-enter the counting room, but as the legal maximum un]ber of both Democratic and Republican observers had already been reached, they were denied admittance. This claim - that Republicans were not permitted in the room to observe the vote count - has already been made in court and rejected.
Maybe so, maybe not. As I stated above, "there are sworn affidavits from people who were there to be poll watchers that contradict your statements. They were there. You and I were not. In a democratic republic, shouldn't people willing to be prosecuted for lying under oath have an opportunity to be heard?" So far, most of the judges have not let any evidence be presented.
The judge in Michigan read the affidavits, heard from all sides and rejected the claims as baseless. There's documented evidence that people who were not registered to be poll watchers were told to rush down to the TCF Center and demand to be allowed in. That's not allowed under Michigan state law. Are you saying that the laws should have been ignored?
Ummm...yeah it does. See mail in ballots come in via....the mail (or in boxes where they were deposited). But they all get mixed together as they come in over time - some for Trump and some for Biden, whatever the ratio between the two may be in certain area. So it is like shuffling a deck of cards between face cards and number cards - you get a more or less standardized distribution between the two sets. What this data indicates is that over 100,000 votes in each of these areas was deposited as a batch at the same time (as they all stayed together with no sorting) and that they were picked up together at the same time - not over a series of days as they came in and got mixed with Trump votes. THAT is what this shows - the improbability of that vote distribution in a standardized number set of supposedly randomly distributed values.
Couple that with the fact that 1) tens of thousands of these were ONLY marked for President and 100% of them were for Biden and 2) the difference between down ballot votes and the Presidential vote and - if you know anything about probability and statistics - this jumps off the page at you.
That is correct, you would have Trump votes still going up and Biden votes going up. more for Biden in the more populated areas but what you see in all the swing states is a huge spike for Biden and Trump is abnormally small, almost, not going up at all. Which is impossible when his votes from all ethnic groups are more for Trump, and more in all of history! The largest turn out in history too? Only in the key states that Biden needed too, is impossible. The chances of all the planets lining up and stars disappearing for 5-6 hours is a possibility too, but will it ever happen....No. Well, how do you know? Because it has never happened.
Vote by mail in most states was still done by district. You mailed your vote into your county or city ballot location. Or you dropped it off there. So mail in ballots will be no different than physical voting in that regard. The only difference was that there was a behavioral difference between Republican and Democratic voters when it came to mail in voting because the Republican nominees was telling Republicans to NOT vote by mail.
There is nothing unique about top of the ticket voters. They've existed in every election since 1788.
Except more. Mail-in ballots came in than went out. And Pennsylvania broke the law and the constitution. I know it’s a small thing when it comes to math. Trump won Florida and Ohio. Look up benford law.
You mistake DISTRIBUTION for total number of votes. There are still Trump votes...they would be mixed into the Biden votes over time in ANY distribution. It is third-world dictator stuff when you get 99 to 100% turnout and over 100% of registered voters and ALL of the votes are for one candidate. There is a HUGE difference in "top of the ticket" voters number a few thousand (in agreement with prior election percentages) and a huge lump of tens of thousands of such votes in a tranche, all together. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html
Are these urban area results inconsistent with other urban areas? Are they inconsistent with past results? You have no baseline so you have no way of knowing whether these results are anomalous or not. When the Democrats routinely get 85% of the black vote, it should surprise ANYONE that areas that are overwhelmingly black will be above the mean. It would be surprising if they weren't!
You are digging into voter data to see what you want without trying to get any context or understanding of past historical precedent. Hillary Clinton won Wayne county 66-29. Joe Biden won Wayne county 68-30. Hillary got a HIGHER percentage in Philadelphia than Biden.
Was it fraud that Biden won Manhattan 85-14?
When you look at specific counties and claim that our elections are similar to dictatorships, it suggests you don't understand how data distributions work.
flyerhawk wrote: "You are digging into voter data to see what you want without trying to get any context or understanding of past historical precedent."
Exactly. The correct method for evaluating said "voter spikes" is to assess said spikes at the county level.
The analysis is mostly independent of time. There's no time component in the scatter plot. The top explanation here is that those anomalies are heavily democrat cities. Ok. But does that explain the extreme ratios? Biden won those 4 cities 10:1, but not other big cities with similar demographics in other states? I think we would need an explanation of those ratios in those cities anyway. Compare to other states. Compare nationally. Compare historically. Compare demographics. Etc.
Also what about the Other to Trump ratio? How is that explained?
If this were an honest analysis, they would have done actual baseline testing using other states that weren't battleground states. They didn't do that. So there is no way to know if this is really anomalous or consistent across the board.
Oh, the ratio is actually 23.67:1 for the first anomaly - that would be Detroit according to the prevailing explanation in the comments section. Is that plausible?
Anyway apparently the author does compare to other states. So other populous, blue, diverse, vote-by-mail cities are indeed compared to. I guess you can still point out differences in vote counting and reporting, that would result in extremely different batch properties.
How wonderful it must be to be such an untroubled and simple person so as to be able to disagree with all contrary views as “garbage “- how nice it must be to live in such an undisturbed bubble!
I’m going to guess you’re single, long history of getting pumped and dumped (either that no one is into you), and you have daddy issues. Such a nasty woman you are.
I have no idea who you’re talking to but this is a really vile comment and a reflection of who you are. Maybe rethink that. You liberals are satanic. You really are.
Clumps? You mean massive DUMPS. Someone entering ballots 3-5 times is fraud. Unauthorized personnel using a thumb drive that is also unauthorized is fraud period.
Obviously, you know NOTHING about data analysis and computing. I've been in IT, computing, and data analysis for 20+ years, am an independent, and this clearly show's there were anomalies that are impossible to happen and cannot be explained away!
If you actually read and understood the report the author takes into consideration the possibilities of varying report quantities from separate precincts to possibly explain the abnormalities. It turns out that the math says that for the precincts that have such wide variance from the norm, which also have the highest possible populations of Biden supporters, would have had to report 100% of their votes cast in one single data dump. That's just not how large precincts report on the progress of their vote counting.
Now if someone can show that those outlier precincts mentioned in this report did, in fact, report their hundreds of thousands of votes in a single data dump then it's possible, not probable, but possible it was a true count. But zero percent of large population precincts count and report their votes this way so it's highly unlikely. And if those large precincts didn't count and report that way then the math shows that that is HIGHLY SUSPITIOUS.
Someone here pointed out that the source data used here is from a group called Edison Research (https://www.edisonresearch.com/election-polling/#two) which NYT used for their ongoing vote data. Note that this is separate from their exit polling data.
These counts are NOT raw, real time numbers from the machines. Batches reflect numbers pieced together by some analysts at Edison from various sources with rolling corrections (which is why there are over 600 entries with negative values in there).
That alone invalidates this entire analysis because the batches don't necessarily correspond to any meaningful unit.
This analysis is math, not science. The science part is using math to test hypotheses. That was not done here. The math was done to try and prove the author's point. When the data are treated from a scientific perspective, the "extremes" aren't that extreme at all. In any sampling study you're always going to get extremes at the high and the low ends, the big question is: how unlikely are the extremes? In this case, not unlikely at all. That's why the author didn't report P-values.
Well, no. See, he ran the math and that led to the conclusion. You can't know what the conclusion will be BEFORE you do the math - the test hypothesis IS the math. It either shows something or it doesn't (proving the null hypothesis). Probability and Statistics, and statistical analysis, is the basis of multiple disciplines of science, though most outside of hard sciences, forensic analysis, and economic/financial analysis don't use or understand it well (individually).
Quick primer in scientific method: i) develop a hypothesis BEFORE doing the experiment: Here - extremes in vote tally updates cannot be explained by random variation (an indication of fraud); ii) do the experiment/analysis: analyze vote tally distributions and ask if outliers cannot be explained by random fluctuations; iii) examine results and ask if hypothesis is accepted or rejected. Extrapolating from the p-values reported in this study the hypothesis is almost certainly not supported - i.e. these outliers can reasonably be expected to occur by chance.
Quick review of statistical analysis and the scientific method. You have data. You run a series of statistical tests to see if there are anomalies - linear regression, normal distribution, inferential analysis, etc. If there are no anomalies, then there is no issue and the data is valid - it either is or is not. If there are anomalies then you look for the explanation, as you see the author has done here. THAT is when you have to make hypothesis about the CAUSE for the abnormalities, but the FACT THEY EXIST has been determined.
You hit the nail on the head, but - and a big BUT, the author did not test for anomalies, they tested for outliers. Yes, I totally see there are outliers, but are they anomalies? Unless you have access to the data, it's not possible to tell because the the critical analyses that should have been performed to test this were not presented. Very doubtful the OP doesn't know this and so one can only assume that they held back these data because the results did not support the main thesis. It appears you know something about statistics - are you not concerned about the lack of P values (or the inappropriate null hypothesis underlying the closest thing they got to a P-value?).
"zero percent of large populations precincts count and report their votes this way". You seem to be stating this as a fact. Please cite your sources. Also, it's spelled "suspicious".
Actually, the analysis is pretty sound with respect to identifying anomalous statistical behavior of the updates. But that doesn't mean there was fraud. The truly awful polling that occurred before the election shows us the limitations of trying to draw conclusions from data in a close election.
Correct. When. data scientist, working say in healthcare, discovers one Doctor billed Medicare 100K for gloves (to make up an example), he or she has discovered an outlier that may be interesting to the fraud team for further research. One doesn't prove fraud from math. You find areas of interest. Later prosecutors bring the Doctor into court and prove the fraud. I'm not convinced I care about today's data, but it was an interesting read. However, those who are arguing about whether math is science or whether math proves legal fraud - are literally saying nothing important at all. That's where the conversation falls off a cliff and people repeat their understandings of what words mean or where data analysis falls in the big picture.
problem is u have to make a decision! accept there was probably fraud. Trump wins. say fuck the evidence Biden is the winner. If Biden wins the evidence will be put in the bin with hunter's laptop and Tara Reade etc! on balance better to keep the current incumbent
What the hell are u talking about????? What part of the laptop story was false? Nothing It was Hunter's he asked for it to be returned so did his solicitor. so everything on it was his the photos 99% not yet public show him with underage girls they refer to money to be paid to his father and people came forward to verify his dealings with China
ONLY A NUT JOB DEMOCRAT WOULD COME UP WITH THAT? ASK WHY DURING THE NIGHT. MOST CRIMES APPEAR UNDER THE COVER OF DARKNESS WITH NO OBSERVERS. THIS WAS FRAUD
It's garbage, you dickhead. So, counted results from mail-in ballots were reported in clumps, so the fuck what? How else are they going be be reported, in dribs and drabs? Jeez, some of you ass clowns are so fucking stupid.
Absolutely true. And if people actually look at the data, there are tons of so-called anomalies where, until you look closely, the data makes it look like something unusual has happened. This poster had to look pretty deep, filter pretty tightly, and make up a few theories to create some anomalies... More blatant "anomalies" that would serve to help Trump, here:
* Trump winning counties where more voters than the entire 2010 population voted !
* Counties that has third world dictator like combos of vote %'s for Trump plus nearly every eligible citizen voting !
* Counties where Trump did better in absentee ballots than he did in his overall winning %.
The election is best broken down in this statistical analysis presented in AZ testimony. Listen and see if you don't agree, or at least question your prior thinking. https://youtu.be/kU5tQDwjOF8
Yeah, sample your blue neighborhood and see if you find 96% Biden, you may in your home, but as you get further out and poll 147K, you find it much harder...
This is as good as it will ever get. There can be no other audit or proof of ballot stuffing simply because the system is designed to be unauditable. Ballots are generic untraceable pieces of paper, which once separated from their envelopes are unprovable as legal, illegal, real, or fake. The toothpaste cannot ever be put back into the tube and that is the whole point of the mail-in system. No ID, no verification, no chain of custody, no observers, no audit trail, no backup, no integrity, and therefore no court can ever find proof beyond a reasonable doubt. The only remedy for this is an auditable re-do of the vote in the questionable states.
Not in the constitution ..This whole election becomes fraudulent do to 6 states..It goes into a singe vote per state..Trump wins once it gets to this point.
"Proven beyond a reasonable doubt" applies only to criminal cases. The presidents challenges are "civil litigation," the bar being met is "a preponderance of the evidence," to win the case.
But there were laws in place for mail in ballots ID check, signature verification, and a deadline to be received. Those laws were changed illegally and in some cases ignored altogether in WI and PA. In at least two states I know of WI, AZ a non profit by run by Mark Zuckerberg gave $400M to these and maybe other states with instructions to push mail-in voting. The money would be taken back if certain conditions weren't met. This is a violation of election law.
None of that is true. There were observers from both parties, if your state has voter ID laws, you had to provide a copy. Verification is done through signature match. Virtually impossible to forge. Mail in voting has .006 rate of fraud. The GOP had a chance to pass the #SafeAct. THREE TIMES! Let’s do the same for Senate races in Maine, Texas, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.
No there weren’t. GOP pol watchers were blocked in all these swing states in the urban areas where all the fraud occurred and caused the state to go blue. Signature matches weren’t done. Lots of witness testimony to that. They are refusing to audit that and not allowing Republicans to view the ballots. That illegal. Mail-in voting is not the same as absentee voting. Mail-in voting has a nearly 100% chance of fraud. I’m an actual mathematician/statistician. Tell me what’s your expertise or that moron your watching on the boob tube. You don’t illegally change election laws 90 days before an election because you’re conducting an honest election. We are looking at the entire country. But for now we have fraud to overturn.
The swing states in question have Republican controlled legislatures, and did NOT change election laws 90 days before election, unless Republicans did it. Swing states with universal mail-in voting, like Pennsylvania, passed the law over a year ago, again by Republican controlled legislatures. Some governors and election committees did try to change election rules but those have been blocked by courts, either not implemented or the votes affected by the blocked changes segregated, without affecting the election outcome.
The swing states are precisely the states that DID change election laws 90 days prior to the election ILLEGALLY through the executive and judiciary branches. Which is why it’s no surprise these same courts are striking down objections or efforts to correct the crime. You are correct that only the legislatures can change these laws and those legislatures are Republican controlled. They went around them. AGAIN ALL THE SWING STATES HAD ELECTION LAWS CHANGED ILLEGALLY. The PA Supreme Court threw out the case on the most absurd basis, that the time had passed (1 year) to remedy it. If they had brought it up at the time, the court would have ruled no standing (injury). SCOTUS will reverse and these judges should be impeached. Maybe get all the information first.
Just who are, and how many are there of these signature matchers, and what are their qualifications (i.e., handwriting experts)? Only a fool would believe millions of signatures could be verified in such a short period of time. That is the fallacy of the low fraud rate you mention for the mail-in ballots.
It's like fingerprint verification or facial recognition. The threshold on the number of points that have to agree can be set at strict scrutiny or at no scrutiny.
Much of the signature matching is conducted by optical scanners. Witnesses have signed affidavits stating that election officials in the four states in question all turned the sensitivity settings of the matching algorthyms way down. That means, in effect, while the signatures were "checked" almost any scribble could pass. The result is that rejection rates in those states were around 0.1% for this election, while histporically they have been between 2%-2.5%. These officials knew the mass mail in voting was designed for fraud, and opened the gates to maximize it. This cheat all by itself gave Biden the election.
There is absolutely no way Joe Biden won. He barely left his basement and when he did, he was incoherent. They talk about Trump being an embarrassment, how can Biden lead this country? For the first time in my 59 years, I'm ashamed of my country.
I'm from Sweden and while I think Trump was damaged by the COVID (I'm not saying he did anything wrong) I did still think he'd win considering how weak and bleak Bidens campaign looked, at least to someone outside the states. Biden offered very little concrete politics, it just sounded like a lot of mumbling and hedging the bets as opposed to Trump who genuinely seemed entthusiastic and optimistc about jobs, energy independence and yes even COVID. It was surprising.
I agree with you. But I have lived in the USA long enough to tell you that the political corruption is overwhelmingly terrifying. Specially with what the Clintons and what OBAMA DID.I woke up when the F.B.I ended up deliberately setting up Mr. POTUS, gral. FLYNN etc... I suspected from the begining, I couln not believe it because it was taking place in the US. I was born in Colombia, druglords land, terrorists groups, corrupt GA office organized crime, kidnapping as a way of life...you name it. This helped me noticed behaviors in the US by politicians that were a red flag.SPeaking different fireign languages, heloed me realized how the strem media and news were translated without accuracy. Realuzed the bug world wide media manipulators, then how latin countries are mislead and made HATE certain politicians as a result of the inutial manipulation. DISGUSTING.
All along the major law enforcement agencygot caught making up 17 fake crimes against the US PRESIDENT to disappear him through the FISA courts by lying and persuading judges.... she retired 3 mis. earlier ..... anyways... considering the chinese virus and what GEORGE SOROS has through his ONG's destabilizing countries I can tell you, TRUMP WON, there was a massive fraud, even statisticians abroad are saying the same.
BIDEN has dementia, well known. He was used and IF he remains as new elected president he will be removed by his own people by using one of thethe 4 options in Article 25.
The media and corrupt WA DC Deep State, have gone to extremes to remove and soon hurt the President of the USA. Remember what happened to ex president Reagan?
I am extremely sorry the USA got so corrupt and their people INDIFERENT. All the violence and marches, torching of properties, businesses, destruction of statues, aggresion, vulgarity was planned. Bad people infiltrated and they only person who seem to be concern for that 4th country behaviour is their president, some politicians while the supposedly ''democrats'' mayors are extremely permissible ordereing the police to do NOTHING!
Pityful what their own people are doing to the USA. Once this First worldwide Biological warfare is over, the economy destabilized, reduction of the population, job scarcity, weak armed forces and medical body we, all (worldwide) are going to be manipulated and obligated to get a SHOT, VACCINE, to hurt humans DNA and their health to weaken each country labor force and be easier target of dictatorships.
What happened in Venezuela
is spreading in some Latin American countries, Africa etc
One of the worstbpeople on earth is GEORGE SOROS.
America in hands of TRUMP a second term, may survive. But I am afraid deep state and fake media will meka people sovangry that a JON DOE WACO may kill ..... And that may be thevend of what once was a nice country with a very unique, special Constitution and Amendments. May GOD BLESS MR TRUMP AND THE USA!
If your for Trump you aint black..Or how bout the 80 year old man he wants to arm wrestle with...Cant form a sentence and cant much read off a TelePrompter...Brings a VP in over skin color not actual experience..Lives in basement...No crowds at any rally's he did .... Trumps huge rally's over whelming...Threatens other country's with billion dollar deals.
Son is caught in a huge pay to play scam....Was suppose to be 3 debates but he only shows up for two...The list goes on an on...Hillary tells Biden not to concede no matter what .... no one says a word..Te media is obvious bias...The Scotus is also bias...Your watching the destruction of freedom in real time..and this will have a WORLD effect on everyone...No one will come to the rescue no matter what their country does to them.
Any connection you have to reality is “obviously “purely coincidental. Even if any of that were true, it pales in comparison to the actions of GOP legislators and the rapist squatting in the White House. wanna Milligan?
Supreme court is biased really? 6-3 conservative majority and 3 Trump apointees, and they are biased for liberals i assume you would say? In that case maybe truth does sometimes have a liberal bias, because justices must serve the truth and the constitution before party.
This article carefully analyzes 9000 dumps of data. The best the people trying to discredit can do is try to claim that 'big cities' lean Biden and therefore these anomalies don't indicate a real issue. But this is the data. It does create a scatter plot that shows a relationship. And when you look at the most abnormal data points out of 9000, you find 4 massive dumps, in the middle of the night with extreme ratios for Biden. Ohio has many large cities, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, Akron, Canton, Hamilton. None of those behaving abnormally. The same for Texas, Florida, ..and pick your State....it's not simply the size of the data being from a Biden friendly city...these specific critical places performed at a mathematical extremity that Biden required to win.
But there are much bigger issues. As you pointed out, Mr. Biden was a recycled failed candidate with no enthusiasm at all. In only the critical swing states do we find Mail in Ballots with an extraordinary low rate of rejections. This is not even discussed in this article. But Mail in being the least secure form of voting, is normally allowed a higher level of scrutiny, where an observer can verify that it appears the Ballot envelope was signed by the registered voter. Yet, in the very areas where the giant dumps for Biden occur, we find them shutting down the voting centers, preventing observers and dumping these huge Biden counts. In Pa. where we would expect a 3-5% rejection rate of Mail in, we find 0.3%, in Ga. only .25%
So suddenly the confluence of Odd datasets and critical swing states with Democrats controlling the counting and denying Republican Observers further suggests something amiss.
But it goes even further. Ohio, since it does have large urban areas as well as suburbs and farms is a classic Bellwether. It had no odd behaving data sets, Trump won it easily, as he did Iowa, another Bellwether. Trump won Congressional races, held the Senate (which they expected to lose), and State Legislatures. Again, from a statistical point of view, Trump seemed like a record setting candidate.
Only those massive Data dumps in those critical Swing areas in the middle of the night seem to have given Biden the electoral college.
And I've not even touched on Mr. Biden's supposed performance in Black Voting districts in the Swing areas relative to 1. the history of White Democrat Candidates never generating more than 59% black turnout and 2. how that history seemed to hold true in all those big cities in Ohio, and in other non-swing states areas.
Again, we come back to Mr. Biden's remarkable good fortune of having statistically improbable results sets in the specific places he needed to have them occur in the middle of the night with no one watching.
You’re very stupid and should stay out of American politics. The Republican Party *literally didn’t have a platform* for the 2020 race. Democrats, of course, had a comprehensive and progressive one based on evidence. But as usual, Dems get trashed for being an actual political party while Republicans get away with grifting instead of helping anyone. Jesus.
The DemocRAT platform consisted of: Higher taxes, wiping out small business, locking everyone in their homes, driving the cost of gasoline to $10/gallon, throwing open the borders to terrorists and freeloaders - in short, "Make America DEAD again."
"The DemocRAT platform consisted of: Higher taxes, wiping out small business, locking everyone in their homes, driving the cost of gasoline to $10/gallon, throwing open the borders to terrorists and freeloaders - in short, "Make America DEAD again.""
so you still voted for a party that has a trash platform? lol you americans are just a bunch of deluded idiots. at least do us a favour and tell biden to continue the trade war and pressure against china, rally the ASEAN allies you left behind under Obama, and pull out american troops from wars. if you do all that, maybe the rest of the world can take the dying west seriously
The trade war literally fucked over *American* farmers. Please describe ANYTHING Trump did other than tariffs with respect to China? Literally nothing. He did nothing. He got a Phase One trade deal that China didn’t even abide by. How are you possibly this deluded? By the way Trump dropped more bombs than Obama and Bush combined. Enjoy your narrative you fucking idiot.
Dems ? lol... A Communist wannabe, lets try something that have never ever worked in any country as since time started, but this time, this time it will be different, because all democrats are pristine, and even their farts smell like flower, and no one ever have to work again, unless they want to. no one ever have to pay any taxes, but lets give everyone $1000 a week in spending money...
Google it you dumbass. The fact is the GOP had no platform and the Dems had one. It’s my opinion that it’s a good platform, you don’t need to agree. Why can’t you admit that a political party should have a platform? If Dems didnt have one you’d be all over it. But guess what you’re a hypocrite like all the conservitards. Sheep.
Seek Help! Typical libitard. No evidence of logical reason. Actions speak louder tha Propaganda. It not your fault that you do not have wisdom, and without, you do not know your a fool. Keep up the name calling, Liberals are pro's at it.
Biden's platform was spelled out on his campaign website with detailed plans on more than 40 issues.
"concrete politics" aka proposed National policy can not be communicated in 30 second sound bites. That's one reason trump lost, all rhetoric, just single word claims and nothing substantial. He shoots from the hip, he's never proposed or followed an actual plan. Even his loyal inner circle says from one day to the next trump kept changing his mind.
Trump's response to Covid-19 was seen as horrible in many countries. Maybe not in Sweden - horses for courses.
I admit I had fears Biden might not be charismatic enough. But his policies were sound. He placed much emphasis on following scientific advice again. For the most part, he tried to not go to Trump's ad hominem level (the first debate being the exception, but that was a mess anyway). And he's not as controversial as Bernie Sanders, whose self-description as "socialist" puts a lot of Americans off (even if his idea of socialism is closer to Social Democrats in many countries).
A friend posted links to the programs of Trump and Biden and there was about 100x more information on the Dem's policies. Trump's site consisted of little else than sloganeering and "hard man" statements.
Centrist politics isnt bad politics yes its boring uninspiring and difficult to garner votes under normal circumstances. But the COVID situation plus Trumps bombastic tweeting habits made enough people long for a return to 'normal', boring politics i suspect. The media twisting and taking out of context much of Trump's words certainly played a role
If the media is so tough on Trump, then let me ask you, did you ever hear about the fact that Trump didn’t even have a platform for the election? Probably not, because they’re incredibly easy on him since he lies at such scale they simply gave up calling him out on it. Come join us in reality. Stop the grift.
The platform was more of the same from his first term: Strong economy, tough on unfair trade, lock out criminal invaders, keep America's energy independence, America FIRST.
Joe had a platform too: Higher taxes, a country-destroying "green new deal", eliminating energy independence, locking down the Country until all small businesses fail, confiscate firearms (thereby starting a civil war).
You are insane Martin. Biden didn’t win anything and neither did Hillary. Wonder why Democrats aren’t insisting on audits of red states? Fraud all over.
Actually Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by >3 million. And that was WITH republican cheating. Biden won despite republican cheating. Diaper Don thought the fix was in which is why he is going insane right now. We voted in numbers that overcame republican cheating. If you want to see fraud, look at the tossup house and senate races that republicans won this year. McConnell won re-election with a 14% approval rating? Lindsey Graham won? Yeah, right.
McConnell’s approval rating is national. The nation doesn’t vote for McConnell. What was grandma Nancy’s approval rate again, halfwit? You leftists are incapable of math or logic, it’s why you’re leftists.
If you count libertarians, more people voted against Hillary than voted for her. Unless you’re silly enough to think libertarians would vote for Hillary. We don’t have a popular vote in the US. Get over it.
How do you explain 27 races in congress viewed as "toss ups" and the Republicans won all 27 races and we're supposed to believe these ballots had Biden for their president?? You know it's bullshit, everyone knows it's bullshit, and on January 20th we aren't going to see this fraudulent bullshit determine the leader of the free world.
LA County was 3.6M in 2016 and 3.4M in 2020. 1.5M illegal voters taken off the rolls after 2016. That’s their count. So fraud. The other 1.5M off another blue urban area. I can’t remember anymore. All these blue urban areas are corrupt and overrun with voter fraud, with only sham elections.
Someone lifts your wallet, takes your cash. You demand it back saying he stole it. He says it's his and tells you to get over it. You'd be okay with that? Didn't think so.
America was stolen over a 100 years ago via the Federal Reserve. If this is the first time you're ashamed by your country, you have been in a dreamland for far too long.
As an economist I have no idea what “America was stolen over a [sic] 100 years ago via the Federal Reserve” means. However, even if I stipulate that assertion is correct, it’s a non sequitor to the issue at hand — which means the author knows this is analysis is valid, but does t want to accept it
Do you work for the media? He didn't say this was the first time he was disappointed with the country. YOU made that up. Now why would you do such a thing?
He’s a poor choice at best. That being said, magnitudes better than a career lying , money laundering, thieving, treasonous rapist. 59? He should’ve been embarrassed tens of thousands of times by now. Dumb fuck
Votes count, not cult worship attendance or flags & red caps.
You must have limited yourself to just one source of info., since only trump claimed Biden was in his basement.
trump lost the popular vote in 2016, our Nation has become even more sharply divided since. This election could have gone either way. There is no logical reason anyone who was paying attention should be surprised that trump lost again inn 2020.
In my 59 years, I've never been prouder of this Nation! We've had a black POTUS, a huge minority voter turn out, a woman VP-elect, and We The People prevented an attempted fascist takeover!
There is no denying the oddity of this election. It goes well beyond direct statistical analysis. It is extremely atypical when compared to past presidential races...abnormalities including the amount of single race voting, 18 of 19 bell weather counties fail to make the correct pick, overall republican success when the republican incumbent president appears to be losing. It goes on and on. Those are facts. Does that prove that Biden is a fraud? No. But combine: 1) historical anomalies, 2) statistical anomalies, 3) the rush by the left -media/party to confirm Biden, 4) refusal of the media to consider any alternative to a Biden presidency, 5) past statements by dems questioning election security/mail in ballots, 6) unanswered questions about Dominion Voting, 7) direct testimony from hundreds of poll workers of instances of questionable activity and, 8) five years of unrelenting hate, badgering and vicious anger against President Trump... and then ask WHY SOME OF US QUESTION THE SUPPOSED RESULTS.
I notice that when people enumerate the oddities of this election, they totally ignore the huge difference between polls and actual results, particularly in swing states that Trump needed to win. There was a poll in WI in the last week before the election that had Biden up by 17 points. And he barely wins the state. So who is more likely to be committing fraud?
Unfortunately, though, the worst fraud is legal: the electoral college. That there could be any remote question of who won the election when Biden had six million more popular votes is just sick, sick, sick. I'm so tired of people in a few swing states holding the rest of the country hostage.
"I'm so tired of people in a few swing states holding the rest of the country hostage."
The last president to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote before Bush in 2000 was Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and only 5 presidents in history have had this same outcome. There have been 33 elections since 1888 and only 2 have won the electoral college without winning the popular vote: Bush (already mentioned) and Trump in 2016.
So 94% of elections since 1988 have had the winner of the popular vote win the electoral college. I would say that's a pretty far cry from "people in a few swing states holding the rest of the country hostage," even if those two have occurred in the last 2 decades.
The Founders studied democracies throughout history and found that mob rule was the result as direct popular vote often led to tyranny. This is the exact reason why we have the electoral college. Without it, New York City, Chicago, Los Angelas, Houston, and a handful of other cities would hold the rest of the country hostage pretty much all the time.
The electoral college isn't fraud. It's actually, when understood the way it was intended, a safeguard against tyranny so that we don't have 51% of the population constantly dictating what 49% of the population can and can't do and what is right and wrong in a society. Just because something is popular among the majority of people doesn't make it right. The electoral college helps to protect that, but the way our entire government is set up is supposed to have safeguards all over the place. Sadly, the Constitution is more of a suggestion in the minds of many Rs and Ds in Washington so it isn't always followed.
Wilson, Lincoln, and Quincy Adams received less than Clinton when it comes to the percentage of the popular vote (Q Adams received 30.92%). In fact, 19 presidents have received less than 50% of the popular vote.
I'm confused at why this is relevant? He still won the popular vote and the electoral college. He isn't the only one who received less than 50% of the popular vote.
As far as the comment I made regarding 51%/49%, the context is talking about why we aren't a direct democracy. It wasn't relating to popular vote in our presidential elections.
Would you rather them focus on specific states or about 6 specific cities? I think it's unrealistic to assume a candidate can visit all 50 states and campaign in both rural and urban areas in the limited amount of time he/she has before an election. But without the electoral college, you would see POTUS candidates focus on NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, and a handful of other cities because he/she would know that the populous cities is what he/she would need to win. And because swing states do vary, it causes candidates to have to choose which whole states (not just cities) would be most strategic for him/her to visit.
As far as the issue of polls, there were independent pollsters warning the MSM polls for weeks that their data was wrong, but they were laughed at and criticized. And it was these independent pollsters who were right. So your question, "So who is more likely to be committing fraud?" is based off the assumption that the MSM polls were right. They were wrong in 2016 and they were wrong in 2020. One would hope they would fix their methods/metrics, but that remains to be seen. They didn't fix them from 2016 to 2020.
We can't use polls (which can easily be bias) to determine whether someone is committing fraud. We use data analysis, which is what is happening. The statistical anomalies are overwhelmingly benefiting Biden. There are also tons of irregularities that have been the norm for decades that at least should make us pause a bit. It could just be a random election cycle. But combined with statistical analysis, it's definitely throwing up red flags. And it should. If this was the other way around, we know the media would be in an outrage and demanding investigations, as they should.
The polls were all wrong again. Pretty much everyone agrees on that. They either poll more Democrats, use incorrect party affiliation percentages, or skew the percentage of the assumed vote. It's done intentionally to discourage supporters from voting as well as the candidate from thinking he can win.
maybe because actual data trumps polls (no pun intended) and the fact that polls even the best of them are hipshots. But its obvious from your ignorant comments throughout this blog that common sense logic means nothing to morons like you.
If you have evidence of voter fraud, then bring it on. The issues you cite are a reflection of your biases, not objective analysis. Do you even know what Dominion voting machines do, or how they work?
The facts he cites are just facts. Many are literally impossible. 2 + 2 = 5 situation.
If the population were 4 people he would say that doesn't make sense, and you would yell at him to prove that 2+2 does not = 5. Because you are sure it could maybe, if we hate Trump enough, 2+2 could be 5. but it cant. Literally impossible. Same as the results of this election.
PA sent out 1.8 million mail-in ballots and recorded they received 1.4 million back. However the final count for mail-in ballots was 2.5 million. Worth looking into maybe? Similar issues in MI, WI, GA, AZ, NV.
3) and 4) dont make much sense. What are they (media) supposed to do? The number points to a Biden win, and historically the elections were called based on those preliminary numbers long before the electoral vote, so they did the same thing for this election. That Trump and supporters have doubts shouldn't prevent the media from calling the election, unless the media share those same doubts (some do, others dont), or unless courts award the election win to Trump. That the left media report based on their version of events (and right media doing the same) isnt evidence of a conspiracy. Otherwise you make a good argument. But remember burder of proof is with the accuser/plaintiff. Doubt is just too easy to manufacture (remember the Russia thingy) which is why we should always ask for proof
Exactly. It was the media who manufactured, and hyped the doubt in the Russia thingy, when all facts and common sense indicated to the contrary. Had the media exposed the Russia thingy to even the slightest ctitical scrutiny there would have been no Russia thingy. Not to mention there would now be numerous conspirators rotting in prison for the rest of their lives, as they should be - including members of the media who the facts have demonstrated were among those conspirators participating in an attempted soft coup against a duly elected president. The point is that the media once again are ignoring what all facts and common sense are screaming, and this is an indicator of something smelly afoot.
Please let me know a single person who went to jail for anything having to do with Russian "collusion" with the Trump campaign. Every case brought was for unrealted matters, by an FBI cabal using the power and resources of the Federal Government to squeeze innocent people (except Manafort, who had legitimate tax issues, but unrelated to anything Trump) for politcal purposes, hoping to shake people down for dirt, any dirt, true or fabricated against the President. THAT is actually a crime. In fact, I'll be happy if you can quote a single sentence from the 2.5 year Mueller investigation - staffed entirely by partisan Democrats - confirming a single instance even close to Russian "collusion". You don't hve to answer right away, you can wait until after the $75 million lawsuit Carter Page just filed against the FBI, Comey and his cohorts is resolved.
Numbers dont add up folks. How about a place that experienced 200% in voting. More people voted than the number of registered voters. A five year old can understand what it means. For God sake, just redo this election. It takes few weeks but there is no other choice. People have to manage to show up in person this time,
The Constitution details how this must be settled, including deadlines along the way. A new election cannot be completed by the deadlines. Rather, the evidence of impossible results, together with witness testimony and other evidence of fraud/illegality, must result in SCOTUS declaring key state vote certifications invalid, preventing an Electoral College majority, and leaving the final vote to the House of Reps, by state delegation, where Trump should win.
So, let an unqualified, extremist, highly political stacked court override the will of the people?Um..... aren’t you guys the party up “no court legislators“?
Hypocrite much. Oh BTW there is no evidence of any of that manure you’re slinging.
Yea, meanwhile leftist shill Obama judges refuse to convict Dems caught massively breaking the law and think the bill of rights is toilet paper. The only right you commies care about is the “right” to murder unborn babies.
You’re proposing letting completely unqualified, mostly right wing nut jobs, in heavily gerrymandered states to overturn the results of an election where there is no hard evidence of fraud. Not what the framers had in mind. I assure you.
Mail in ballots have a fraud rate of .006%. By far, the most full proof and secure way to vote in the entire country. We don’t have access to any of the coding software by any voting machine manufacturing company.
secondly, no one should have to risk their health and life over casting a ballot. Especially when they are not hand mark, hand counted, paper ballots.
Ben Dover you are assuming that the correct processes are followed. The assessors couldn't even do a process audit in PA. They were too far from the action. Yes, the voting machines are design to commit fraud, and were used that way. That is why they were bought!
The 200% turnout is fake news that was already debunked. They weren't the county's official figures, it was literallly just something that some blog said.
No, America should not "just redo" the election based on a bunch of Internet misinformation. You're suggesting, without any evidence to justify it, that the election should be held again, but without absentee voting.
If you held the election again, but without absentee voting, you're not actually holding the election again. You're holding a new election under different rules - rules that makes it more difficult for some people to vote. That, my friend, is called voter suppression. Changing the rules so that people who you don't like find it more difficult to vote is the very definition of voter suppression.
Like most things that autocrats do, voter suppression is usually completely legal, but always immoral.
I completely agree. Let’s legislate every vote in America be cast on a hand marked, hand counted, paper ballot. Then, forensically analyze every code of software of all voting machines. The GOP Senators would have to vote from Leavenworth.
That is 100% absolute bullshit from a registered certified purebred Angus. Give me one legitimate source to anything you just commented on. That is 100% absolute bullshit from a registered certified purebred Angus. Give me one legitimate source to anything you just commented on. There will be snowballs in Hell first
I am an engineer, i understand this white paper, many people won't. Fortunately, it does not take a mathematical mind to know our election was stolen. It is quite obvious to anyone due to the outlandish, systematic cheating on display right out in the open.
The bigger question is what are we going to do about it when the tiny number of people who actually get to have a say about it do nothing?
The founding fathers in their great wisdom gave us one final check on an illegitimate government and lawless people.
And what was that? Let’s get busy on the #OngoingCriminalEnterprise And what was that? Let’s get busy on the #OngoingCriminalEnterprise that is the GOP!
I was a telecommunications traffic engineer for ten years. These kinds of data anomalies are ALWAYS suspicious. Early in my career I was able to find $18,000,000.00 in misrouted telephone calls. There is a thing called least cost routing and when the expensive circuits are pounded while the cheap circuits sit idle, that is a clue that either the calls are being misrouted or the switch-site technicians have busied out the circuits. I wrote up an estimate of the damage that was being done and it ended up in the in-boxes of the Board of Directors of the parent company. I did not send it there. I just wanted it all cleaned up and I raised a fuss and was persistent. Over and over in my career I reviewed statistical anomalies and they always pointed to something that was not right. My data sniffing sense tells me that this election was rigged. I would bet my reputation on it.
Have you looked at the red-shift (election results variance from polls that favor republicans), that has been occurring since inception of electronic voting? Particularly noticeable in 2016 and 2020.
It is sad to see so many comments trying to dissuade people from listening to the data. Numbers do not lie. They might not say what you want them to, but they do not lie.
And any truly educated person with any experience interpreting statistical analysis knows this is black and white proof of fraud, no matter how many posts try to say otherwise. Numbers do not lie. You are caught.
The only argument that keeps coming up to try to dismiss is the one about large cities like Detroit or Philadelphia with higher populations than surrounding counties being reported to cause a vertical line that happens nowhere else on the curve but you have one huge flaw. These are the 1,2,4, and 7th largest anomalies in the nation. These are nowhere near the same size voting populations and do not behave like other “Blue” cities like NYC, Chicago, or LA. Your wishing it away does not actually wish the data away.
Serv US, I don't think that it's "black and white." The authors have done a great job in showing how to use time series data to detect *anomalies* in 2020 election data. That might or might not be a telltale for fraud -- each suspicious case has to be examined separately.
Anomaly 1 looks like the result of the City of Detroit directly reporting most of its absentee ballot count to the State. Detroit skews D, and absentees skew D.
Anomaly 2 looks like the result of the very-D County of Milwaukee reporting some of its absentee ballot count to the State.
Read through the comments for details (unfortunately you have to wade though a lot of nonsense and invective).
I don't know about Anomalies 3 or 4.
Of course, there are lots of flavors of fraud, and only some will show up as time-series anomalies. The above explanations of Anomalies 1 and 2 don't prove "absence of any fraud" any more than an outlier can "prove guilt." Importantly, this approach will spotlight instances of potential large-scale fraud and, when it exists, help to characterize it. Ballot box stuffing, graveyard voting, phony precinct reporting, and manipulation of voting machine USB sticks should each look different.
It's obvious to me that more transparency is needed if the elections systems are to earn the trust of informed citizens. Why doesn't every state have clear chains of custody and audits? And promptly publish precinct-level results? More and better data would make innovative approaches like the authors' more powerful, enhancing their use in spotlighting bad practices and serving as a deterrent to misconduct.
Numbers do not lie, but your interpretation of these numbers is flawed, because you incorrectly are expecting uniformity.
Counties don't all report their unofficial results in the same way. There's no requirement on them to, and they don't try to. Some of them do it in a more real-time fashion than others. Just because a pile of ballots goes through a counting machine at the same time, that doesn't mean they'll all be added to the tally at the same time - because some will need to be adjudicated.
Real-time reporting of partial counts is not a requirement for election integrity.
The author makes clear that uniformity isn’t an expectation. I am very fluent in his mathematical tools and I don’t find a requirement for or expectation of uniformity. The author specifically talks about possible sources of non-uniformity that could explain the anomalies, and then dispels them. What do think of his discussion on the possible sources of non-uniformity?
He's assuming that the only possible sources of non-uniformity are ballot type (i.e. mail-in vs in-person) and geography. Those are definitely not the only sources of non-uniformity. Ballots that are adjudicated or transcribed might be reported separately, or later. There are differences in the way that different counties report their unofficial results, and how close the time they are reported is to the time they are actually counted.
It's not just a non-uniform distribution of voters, there isn't a uniformity of process between counties in reporting unofficial results.
Yes, you’re right, I don’t recall that he made mention of tally methods. This area may have the potential to explain the results, and IMHO needs to be understood.
At the end of the day, unofficial results are just that - unofficial. The processes for ensuring election integrity align with the official certification of the results, not with the unofficial running totals. Hence the differences between how different counties report the unofficial results. Unofficial results only really need to be good enough for the media to call the winner of a race correctly, that's really the only purpose unofficial results serve. They aren't intended to be a real-time report of the vote counting process. Some counties leave vote totals from whole precincts unreported for days.
Any "truly educated person" who has taken a single statistics class knows that you can't take principles that apply to random sampling and try to shoehorn them into explaining votes in a very heated election.
Comparing 2020 numbers to 2016 numbers and trying to use that as "proof" doesn't work because none of the factors are the same. I myself vote republican usually - voted trump in 2016 - and voted against him after the embarrassment that has been the last 4 years. I still voted republican for several other positions.
The amount of people who are trying to talk out their ass about statistics is too damn high here.
Right the embarrassment of a booming economy, bigger tax breaks, better foreign trade deals abroad, establishing energy independence and strengthening or military while simultaneously getting our troops home and promoting peace deals in the middle east. Trump puts America and it's working class first. You're either some globalist RINO who has betrayed this country or just a lying libtard (communist globalist trash as well just acting differently in society.) So which is it?
This comment perfectly encapsulates what a Trumpist is. The working class are Trump's mark. We live in a globalist world, obviously. The other super-powers are perfectly happy to leave the US in the dust. You need the global market more than it needs you. 2021 will mark the dawn of a new order.
You treasonous globalists should stop trying to destroy and sabotage our country then I'm sure Schaub would let you lick his boots up at Davos if you assholes don't like Trumps military or economy then get the fuck out. You know what's funny?? You know how you loathe and look down on "trumpists" like neophyte scum? If these godless globalists succeed in creating their evil empire they will look down on you the way you look down on me but where we differ is I'll go down fighting evil and standing up for what i believe in whereas a spineless hateful coward like yourself you'll live on your knees and get the karma your arrogance has earned.
The fact that what is.being described as an anomaly appears to be normal distribution in Detroit for past 3 elections would seem to.indicate its not.likely fraud in Detroit but just a set of data on how Detroit votes that is an outlier from how most us votes since detroitt biased.always so democrat. I'm guessing I must have stated that poorly
If it’s fraud then why did Trump actually get a higher percentage of the Detroit vote in 2020 than he did in 2016? He improved by roughly 2%. He still received a very small,% of the Detroit vote, but he received more of it in 2020 than in 2016 while Biden received roughly the same number of votes in Detroit as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. In Philadelphia, Trump also did better than he did in 2016 while Biden did slightly worse than Hillary. If you’re going to commit fraud, why would you allow Trump to improve on his 2016 results? Also, if your going to commit fraud and manufacture votes, you would necessarily need to bump up voter turnout - after all, those fake votes would need to come from somewhere. But turnout in Detroit in 2020 was under 50%, roughly in line with 2016. The statistical data provided in the paper just reflects the artifacts of counting mail-in ballots. It takes much longer and the results are released in batches that appear as spikes when votes are reported. The total Detroit vote count in 2020 is consistent with the reported vote spikes, with a very large number of Detroit voters using mail-in ballots that take much longer to count. There is nothing nefarious in these statistics.
Nationwide its 15.1. Michigan is 15.4. That why Detroit at 5% with better numbers for trump this year than 2016 2012 2008 such an easy example to refute
Yes, it was. Turnout was higher almost everywhere - except Detroit. And within that 19% higher turnout, Biden improved on Hillary’s 2016 Kent county results by about 3% and Trump support declined by about 6%. That is consistent with Trump’s erosion of support in suburban counties and Biden’s improvement in those same areas. In Pa, Biden got less of the vote in Philadelphia in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016, but he improved in the 5 Philly suburban counties between 2% and 7% - consistent with what happened in Kent County, Michigan. Are you claiming there was vote fraud in Kent County because Biden won there?
Also any truly educated cannot possibly believe socialism is in the future of our country. Get real and see that a civil war will happen if you can't wait for legal battles to have their day.
I think the authors explained random sampling, which has nothing to do with whether an ejecting is hated or not. The authors don't conclude anything between the 2016 election outcome or this one, they just discuss the large vote"dump" for this election, and claiming people are talking statistics or their ass is not an argument but rather your lack of one.
This also occurred in Detroit in 2016, 2012, 2008 ...that's actual data. It was more pronounced in those other years than 2020. I'm pretty sure they were tracking percentage not total.for anomaly ..and in Detroit the percentage is.not an anomaly when looked at historically. I don't want the.data.to.go away.
Have a.masters on engineering and have worked closely with stats for 27years. Probably have spent 15000 hours of my life analyzing them. Sometimes raw data. Sometimes.data with a bias ($ argument). Not usually political data though spent about 10 hrs.looking at.this this point I'm sending doesn't require that background. All the analysis is up in Michigan's website.back to 2008 and its.really simple division to show data in Detroit did not shift !pre.to.biden
Also, the argument is simpler. Vast counts were made without meaningful partisan Republican oversight. This data is statistically anomalous so prove to us that 10's of thousands (if not 100's of thousands) of votes from these precincts are not fraudulent.
They can't, they have no Republican to vouch for their results, so the entire precinct votes should be thrown out (at least for the vote counts reported that were not properly witnessed). Lack of proper partisan Republican supervision alone invalidates these votes. The moral cowardice of Republicans not to demand throwing out these votes is telling.
That is simply not true. every single present as observers from both parties as well as non-partisan observers. Every single one in America. Oh well. Now you know.
The evidence on said laptop is over the top. Hunter is caught in flagrante delicto literally and figuratively. It is inarguable that the laptop is true.
There is zero evidence that it is even, or ever was, a possession of Hunter Biden. If it is, and there are illegal activities exposed by it, you don’t think Bill Barr would’ve indicted him? FF ass man, that would’ve happened before the election. I realize I’m reasoning with a two year old here......
And you’re calling the Russian conspiracy with the Republicans a hoax? Now I know why there is a “do not ingest internally“ warning on rat poison. For short bussers like you three Uninformed hayseeds.
The thing of it is... well... the Biden family (Joe, Hunter, and Jim) has been accused of being a grifting family off the backs of the American people for their misplaced trust in Joe Biden.
The laptop elucidates the fact fantabulously. It shows how Joe is compromised with a good number of foreign governments.
Some messages on the laptop can be verifiably true while others can still be planted. As with all things let the investigations and due process play out before jumping to any conclusions. Im sure the Republican Senate will be up to this if there is merit in this case
We have known issues regarding Ukraine and China (among other countries) that the laptop verifies. We have testimony from Tony Bobulinski clarifying Joe Biden's knowing role in the Biden family business schemes. This evidence is real while that used to impeach Trump was.... to put it plainly... trumped up fiction writing.
Biden deserves to be impeached (and convicted) right now. You can be impeached at any time (in or out of office) and prevented from taking office.
What Democrats did to Bork, Thomas, Kavanaugh and Trump deserves payback. Democrats are uncivil rats with little to no wisdom in governing a republic and all kinds of means and will to rule like communists Antifa style.
LOL Like that’s a fucking credible source? It’s crowd source, from Americans. Most, idiots.That’s not evidence. Sorry. A blog is just somebody keyboarding random opinions, agendas, or bullshit. In this case, bullshit. No fucking way 9500 dead people returned mail in ballots. The signatures have to match. Few, if any of the things on that list are even relevant to the discussion. Today is Today is “Take that bullshit somewhere else” day. You should upgrade calendars.
You just invalidated every single thing you are spouting...you are a leftist know-nothing. Your earlier ad hominem attacks and profanity gave that away ahead of this current ridiculous statement.
Excuse me? My profanity is evidence of my complete outraged at your stupidity. My profanity is evidence of my complete outraged at your stupidity. Nothing anyone has said that I have commented to has keyboard and a verifiable, empirical truth about voter fraud evidence. Nothing anyone has said that I have commented to has keyboarded a verifiable, empirical truth about voter fraud evidence. If you don’t like the way I have said it, that’s on you.
The longer I read these posts the more I think Ben is probably a Chinese spy sent to rial us all up. Everything he says is bombastic but not connected to anything discussed in the article or follow up.
The data above is indeed rational evidence, not empiricle evidence. However the 200 witness testimonies being put forward by Sidney Powell is empirical evidence. Every time empirical evidence is presented, the character of the witness is attacked. This rational evidence from data freely available from the NYT is much more damning as it is harder to refute without drawing the conclusion of voter fraud. If you want empirical evidence of voter fraud look no further that the 1,017 proven cases that has lead to 917 prosecutions so far. https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/docs/pacei-voterfraudcases.pdf
You need to research the subject. You don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about. No matter how big your tantrum, it’s still bullshit. Find a state that it’s even legal to do so. None.
Burden of proof remains on the plaintiff, in this case Trump. Lack of Republican observation at this point is an allegation, likely true to an extent but not an abosulute FACt as established in court yet. Lets see how the courts rule, and abide by the final ruling.
No, affidavits, videos, and a Pennsylvania court order already prove that Republican partisans were kept from performing their oversight function in a meaningful way.
We have precincts that said counting was done for the night. Sending poll watchers home while they continued to "count the votes". Absolutely outrageous. And then during those dark counting hours Biden spikes in vote count that some say the machines could not achieve in the time period. These elections officials must now prove they did not defraud their voters and the voters of all of America.
This is so shamefully third world. Take it from someone who lived the 3rd world life and has family in the third world laughing their asses off at YOU and me.
I think you could put a nice bow on this if you looked at the binomial distributions of vote batches by states separated by vote type (in person, Election Day vs. early/absentee). A concept that you present here is very analogous and, I think, amenable to a binomial analysis of the data. Essentially every single ballot counted is a boolean trials and a "batch" of boolean trials can be represented by a binomial distribution. A coin flip is the classic case - the chances of success (lets call that getting heads") is 50% on any given coin toss. However, you are not guaranteed to get exactly 5 heads in ten trials. The chances of that are only 20%. However, there is a cumulative probability of 83% that you will get between 4-8 heads in ten trials. The distribution substantially narrows as the number of trials goes up. To put the numbers in class with the numbers you discuss here, if you flipped a coin 100,000 times you only 0.25% chance of getting EXACTLY 50,000 heads but the cumulative probability of getting between 49,000-51,000 heads is nearly 100%
Large batches of boolean trials that differ significantly from the individual trial success rate are not really believable. I think this tracks very well with what you are saying here.
so how does it apply here? we arent flipping coins right? We know post priori for a given state what the final distribution (including any shenanigans) of votes were for early/mail-in and for in person Election Day. These splits are the boolean probability of success on any given trial.
So lets say that mail in/early went 80-20 biden in all these states with these anomalous. The probability of success is 80% on any given trial. The cumulative probability of any batch as large as Michigans going 95% plus to biden - even with the "coin" weighted this heavily is literally zero. As in my computer cannot calculate a number this small.
So, I would propose you run a binomial "weighted coin" analysis on all these batches nationwide, state by state with the weight of the coin determined by the final results of two populations: in person Election Day and absentee/early voting. I think you will find every other state has batches that are generally, statistically, believable, except for WI, MI, GA, PA
I can help with generating a script if you like. please reach out! I think this approach is a way to make this digestible to the general public!
None of that is relevant. Those numbers simply mean people who wanted to vote for Joe didn’t want to expose themselves to a deadly virus, the voters in those particular states or motivated to evict the squatter in the White House. Let’s do precinct by precinct Senate races in Texas, Florida, South Carolina, Maine, and Kentucky first.
"None of that is relevant. Those numbers simply mean...."
Wait, does it mean nothing? Or does it mean only what you think it means. Contradicting yourself in the same thought - something only a liberal is capable of.
"Lets do precinct by precinct...." in all the places republicans won senate seats? why, I thought this was the most secure, totally no fraud election in history of man, right? Why would we need to do that. Why are you interested in those places? We can't conclude anomalous statistics is the result of fraud right? Its not relevant right?
Why are you questioning and endangering our democracy in this reckless way! Your betters have already told you what to think about the results, submit prole!
But get this, yeah I AGREE with you, lets do it. The amount of voter fraud that is acceptable, whether my team or yours, is precisely zero. Although some places handle their absentee ballots differently then at the precinct level (ahem, Detroit for example) so we will have to go county by county and follow where the data leads us, deal? although I suggest you do some light reading on probability and cumulative distribution functions then you will understand better what I am talking about above. Can we maybe look into why the absentee ballot rejection rate, for a year with overwhelming numbers of ballots cast this way, were nearly a factor of 30 lower than is typical. More so if you consider that rejection rates for first timers can be 6 times higher than your seasoned absentee voter and its unquestionable that the bulk of the increase this year was first timers. We can look at your senate races too!
"those particular states motivated to evict the squatter in the White House..." yeah, those voters were super motivated to vote out the guy in the White House and vote in vanilla carbon copies of their run of the mill republican rep and senator - that's what it was! The guy got 10 million MORE votes than 4 years ago, increased his vote share of minorities and several other groups across the board - it was the white males that deserted him! Yeah, that makes sense too! People were showing up for their standard issue republican not the guy drawings tens of thousands of people to his rallies.
"expose themselves to a deadly virus". Please guy, grow up and put on your big boy pants you're embarrassing yourself.
Because I call you on your bullshit? Besides voter ID, and marked paper ballots, ending gerrymandering, going back to the original policy the framers implemented concerning the electoral college,(ratio of electors to popular vote. Not winner take all), Along with the English list of GOP voter suppression, having an IQ above your waist size would be good. along with the English list of GOP voter suppression, having an IQ above your waist size would be good. Pitiful is just saying stupid platitude with zero evidence.
Ben, you need to learn when to slink away. You've been owned here. You are just a mean blowhard, nothing more and have been shown to add pretty much nothing of value to an otherwise good discussion. Please, quit embarrassing yourself.
Very well stated sir! But you are engaging a liberal and logical reasoning does not apply. Fake News has advanced their TDS and 24/7 mask wearing has cut the oxygen to their brains. I would judge this particular fellow is sadly at Stage IV TDS. Best course of action is to not engage. This guy's screen name tells you everything you need to know.
I still have an addressed your no thanking the Senate race the results need audited, completely forensically investigated. Hypocrisy much? Elections where my candidate won aren’t fraud...... Sure thing, Kevin.
His reply is so full of stupid shit I must expand on exposing it.
White women are the demographic that Trump lost. Uneducated white males voted for him at the same, or even higher rate in certain state than in 16.
11 million more people voted for his opponent then any presidential candidate in history. That sentence contains the same relevance as your “10 million more votes“ nonsense. NONE
This solution would be hand marked, hand counted, paper ballots. You should get busy on that.
The Republicans had a chance to add a degree of security to elections by passing the #SafeAct. They declined.
Yeah, Joe Biden, who hardly left his basement and can't hardly form a complete sentence, got about 10 million more votes than Barack Obama in 2008 too, sure. Keep dreaming.
Sure, hand marked, hand counted paper ballots, I can agree to that. Mandatory state issued ID and absentee voting only with a damn good excuse (COVID isn't one, neither is not wanting to put on pants and the polling station is far). Mail in voting should be like abortion was supposed to be - safe, legal, and rare. This concept of mailing ballots to all voters, putting ballot drop off boxes on the side of the road (Stacy Abrams says its a poll tax for people to have to put postage on their ballots), only invites shenanigans is a massive invitation for fraud and only one side wants more of it.
There should be zero electronic devices in any part of the vote counting process. There is no way to make them secure (I work with cyberwarfare guys, they think these things are a joke). Can you explain to me why a tabulator would ever need a weighted race feature? why anyone would think connecting one of these things to the internet would ever be a good idea (even if it is a valid reason like a firmware update) or why in the hell it would have features where you connect USB drives to them. Yeah - no way that could be taken advantage of. You can't and no one can. Before you respond you should carefully evaluate the public records of senator's Wyden, Klobuchar, and Warren on this topic - I disagree with them on everything of substance but on this point they are absolutely correct. You may want to consult the PBC's program on issues with Georgia's dominion system THE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION.
But, hey, the "right" guy got elected so it must be the will of the people - forgot the past 4 years of stolen election talk, discussing around EC electors "voting their conscience" (see: Michael Moore and others), and claims of....wait for it.....dominion voting systems changing votes.
First, relativity referring to supposed election fraud. Again, there is none.
Second, provide a source for those numbers you just threw out. It’s bullshit until you do so.
“Exposing themselves to a deadly virus“ Word for Word exactly what I said. I didn’t stutter. Yesterday and American died every 40 seconds. Over 2200 people. If you dumb fuckers would do the right thing for 90 days, all of this shit would be behind us.
Fucking morons like you are the reason this place is a Third World shit hole. You have the political acumen of a rock. You’re just a skin field shit bag uneducated untraveled dumb fuck who thinks they know thanks.
Your metric means nothing (see I can play that game too, difference is, I am right). Here are a few that do. Seroprevlance studies (google is your friend) have routinely found that the infection rate, which is the only rate that matters, is anywhere from 5->30 times higher than the case rate (the number of cases uncovered by testing. The CDC estimated that this number, on average is about 10x. Therefore the infection fatality rate is 5-30 times lower than what you would calculate from the case fatality rate or 10x lower on average PER THE CDC. Other peer reviewed studies have concluded that the average time to death from a confirmed case is 10-14 days. This is born out by simply looking at the peak of the 7 day case and death averages from the spring and summer bumps. Europe, also has the same exact behavior. The current infection fatality in both Europe is around 0.12%. If you insist on looking at the statistical tails that the media is fond of reporting on and using a 28 day period the IFR climbs to an astonishing 0.16%. Or statistically not any different than your average flu. To be clear, the spring was a more serious event - mostly so by enlightened northeastern liberals ensuring that the most vulnerable amongst us were the primary population exposed to the virus and partially because no good therapeutics were available at the beginning of the outbreak. Even the liberals have figured out that sending positive patients to nursing homes is not good policy and now we have a wide array of therapeutics. This virus has been neutered already and the vaccine which will crush it.
You did know that Europe is just getting over the hump of around 300,000 cases a day right and are currently seeing almost 6000 deaths a day (a death every 15 seconds!!!!!!) right or did your liberal rags not mention what has been going on over there since September. Are they "a third world shit hole" too? Are they "dumb fuckers" who "need to do the right thing for 90 days"? Didn't think so, you just had no god damn idea what was going on in the world because the NYT and the Washington post didn't tell you to think it. Statistically Europe has faired no better than us and it shouldn't be surprising. The ultimate conceit that has been exposed in this whole episode is the total arrogance and conceit of the intelligentsia, the idea that we could control a virus to any real degree is the stuff only a moronic academic could think would be possible. The reality is much starker and much simpler - any organization that can summon the political will to do draconian things in response to a virus fundamentally has too much inertia to do anything useful. period. This country hit the peak of the infection curve this week and the death curve will peak 10-14 days from now - just like the previous two bumps and just like the current European outbreak and its previous outbreak. You know what didn't do anything? Lockdowns. Everyone jumping on that boat right now is already too late by about a month.
I could give a shit about political acumen, I care about the truth. Numbers don't lie, and you are dumb as a bag of hammers. I work in a high technology field. I am a patented inventor and I have sent experiments to the moon. The shit I do will someday in 20-30 years show up in a Mercedes S-class and people like you will say "wow, look at what those germans can do", yeah, that's what it was.
by the way, the histograms you show, in bulk and with exception of the extreme outliers, tend to follow a binomial distribution by eye. Happy to look more closely at this with you.
Another question I have: using this type circumstantial evidence and dozens of affidavits, why is the FBI not retrieving and seizing ballots to examine them? What is going on?
Right. Like if he did something illegal Donnie’s personal butt boy Bill Barr would have him immediately arrested. Trust me, thinking is way above your pay grade. You should let someone else do that for you.
If there was any fraudulent ballots, you don’t think the head treason weasel at DOJ wouldn’t be all over this? I’ll tell you what’s going on. The GOP and the squatter in the White House are full of shit. And you’re a sucker
I would like to see these fine statisticians finesse their legal disclaimers. They keep saying, "these anomalies are not evidence of fraud but indicative of possible fraud and worthy of further investigation." I keep reading these or similar hedges. However, this language is just an invitation for a hostile judge to discount this report as no evidence at all. It is important to shift the burden to the Biden team, and these statistics should be sufficient to do that.
I am pretty sure that the statisticians would all agree that these extreme anomalies would establish some sort of mistake, manipulation or fraud unless someone could come forward with evidence of some plausible non-fraudulent explanation for these extreme anomalies. So, the hedge should read, "this report is not conclusive evidence of fraud but is compelling circumstantial evidence and should be sufficient evidence to establish the election results are tainted unless someone can come forward and provide a plausible non-fraudulent explanation for these seemingly inexplainable anomalies." We need to put the ball onto their side of the court. Make Biden try to explain these ridiculous results.
Great point. Perhaps, the 'indicative of possible fraud' statements should be, justly, followed up with "and thus, it is imperative that we audit the 'dumps' or 'batches' in question to better understand what happened". This doesn't directly shift burden of proof to a campaign (not should it, at this point) but, it does create a more than sufficient argument to audit the culprit batches. Furthermore, if the election officials cannot parse our the ballots from the 'dumps' in question...then, we're raising very significant questions about how we validate our elections. After all, what is the point of all this expensive ballot tech if we can forensically audit the votes in any meaningful way?
If you agreed, why say the exact opposite? These statistical anomalies should make a prima facile case of fraud. Trump wins UNLESS Biden can come forward with persuasive evidence of a plausible explanation that doesn’t involve fraud. Of course our elections should be verifiable, but they were intentionally made unverifiable. The question is, given these clearly anomalous results, who should have the burden of conducting the recount or audit. I say Biden should have the burden to prove these banana republic election results are legitimate. The burden of proof decides most legal disputes. Whoever has the burden usually loses for lack of evidence. I think these statistical anomalies are persuasive enough to shift the burden to Biden.
The burden of proof is on Trump and the GOP. You can’t prove a negative. That is a 100%, ironclad fact. Not some dumb shit opinion, as you are offering. No wonder we’re Third World shit hole. Idiots like you running around, loose. And voting!
It's not a negative, it's a positive. Thousands of positive votes for Biden, none for Trump. Taking it up the ass while thumbing your shitphone must be difficult, eh?
You can’t prove a negative. It’s impossible. I’ll bet the bus you wrote to school and was so short, the driver could reach back and open the emergency exit door. Without leaving his seat.
That would be, rode. It's likely he did write something while he rode on the bus, but at least he went to school. You should check your grammar before attempting to ridicule someone on their education.
We do it everyday in courts of law all across America. It is a Plaintiff's burden of proof initially -- until he establishes a prima facie case. A prima facie case is a case with sufficient evidence (if no other evidence is introduced) to carry the Plaintiff's burden. Then the burden shifts to the Defendant to refute the plaintiff case. In this case, Trump is the Plaintiff. These statistical studies are sufficient evidence to establish a prima facie case of election fraud. It carries Trump's burden of proof and shifts the burden to Biden to prove there was no fraud. He can do that by presenting credible evidence of a plausible explanation for these statistical anomalies. If he cannot explain these anomalies, Trump should prevail -- either through court or by election nullification by the state legislatures.
Believe me, as soon as my family responsibilities are finished concerning my 86-year-old mother, I’m out of this Third World shit hole. I’ve been to over 90 countries. There are at least 50 that the people know how to live. We aren’t one of them. Wanna contribute to my expatriatism?
I am from Iraq and I am IT Expert. I say, just listen to the evidence, it speaks for itself. There is massive Fraud for sure. Look at the spikes in the votes, with Biden won 99% of the spike ballots; this is impossible except if there is a fraud, and there is definitely data feed to the system. The sharp differences between the numbers of mailing ballots sent versus what has received and in the system; the difference cannot be explained except it is a fraud. The switches of the votes inside the voting machine; this cannot happen unless there is a muddling with the voting machines, either remotely, locally or through enabling a hidden code, or even using triggers through internal setup events. All voting machines are connected to the internet, and I am not sure why, and this alone would allow the software manufacturing company or anyone else to muddle with the machines through many ways. The Machine are not backup by paper work, and there is no audit trail enabled inside them to track events to see what is going inside them during the vote and account for every event; this is a lone is a setup for Fraud. The unsupervised staff muddling with Ballots; how this could happen and there are clear rules; and this election is for the President of the USA. The List of the Frauds is so long, it just need someone fair to listen to it.
The ONLY way to correct this is to have ALL votes tabulated in the precinct in which they are cast, a big PITB but the only solution.
No device used in voting or counting should be connected to the internet...period! We were assured that this was the case (here in Georgia) when the law suits started flying over "voter suppression" after 2016/2018 elections.
If these anomalies are allowed to become the standard which our elections conducted, you might as well get a big straw hat, a sleeveless shirt and a machete. BANANA REPUBLIC!
The truly deceptive fact that is ignored herein, is that the vote was stopped at a point by each of the Democratic polling places in swing states where voting irregularities took place, that had President Trump leading by wide margins. These coincidental time stoppages, (mid- 4am) enabled pollsters to be able to determine just how many votes were needed to be added by the mailin ballots to over come Trump's lead. Then they resumed the count bringing in ballots (likely that generally only had a single presidential vote for Biden on it, with no other down ballot vote, also likely an illegal vote), proving that those were likely illegal votes, just because of that suspicious indicator! Either we fight for only the honest votes or we might as well never trust any voting again!
There’s got to be a pony in here somewhere. I mean, all that horseshit.
IT must be coming from Putin!!!
No. The GOP knows how to cheat and make up complete misleading bullshit all on their own. I would love to discuss issues and policy. Obviously, you know nothing about the subject.
the Democrats (a criminal syndicate masquerading as a political party) has been stuffing ballot boxes since 1868; they've got a 152 year head start. So take your indoctrinated schizophrenia and go suck ChiCom wiener.
You assholes stole the election, so watch what you say punk!
Your orange chimp lost in a landslide, SUCKER BWAHAHAHAHAHA
bull shitskies. TFG, on his egotistical power trip, couldn't conceive of the possibility of losing (losing isn't a possibility for a narcissist ) so seven months before the election he cooked up a rationale for what if he did lose? Well it couldn't happen, so if it appeared that he lost it had to be because of massive fraud. He spent seven months building up that, conning his base, so they were all on board with his bull shit when he did lose. Problem was, he had NO - ZERO- credible evidence. But he conned you and much of the country that he was right, lack of facts be damned.
I’m on your side. Trump will be re-elected, even if it has to be a reverse Coup. A Coup of the Coup.
It’s funny they used the same language with the initial Hunter Biden story. “Baseless claims”, “disinformation”, and it has backfired.
It takes the truth a little time to push through the lies. FB, Google, and Twitter will not succeed in suppression. Section 230 will be repealed and they will immediately get hit with a steady stream of lawsuits. There will not be enough lawyers to defend them all.
he doesn't care if he's elected or shoved in in a coup - as long as he has power. then welcome to the FSA - FASCIST STATES OF AMERICA, because all he cares about his himself and his power trip.
Go ahead. Discuss. I am quite versed in all this and I will take you up on it. Go first. Oh, I do not mean advanced math so stay away from all of that.
I have a math PHD, I can help translate if you would like.
Your animal/feces fetish distracts from your twin strengths: Off-topic and incoherent ranting.
https://lh3.google.com/u/0/d/0BzTqxXk7Qc-oZEhJS2ZST2pBVlE=w402-h300-p-k-nu-iv2
If “in there” were a pony, “all that” would be ponyshit.
Feces fetish + Bestiality = Ben Dover
His animal/manure obsession overrides even a semblance of credibility.
Wow. You mean low life trolls, with most likely less than G.E.D. education exist in this academic environment? The comment says it all
https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1330527645558300676?s=21
The "fact checkers" point out that all these spikes were due to the largest cities in these states all reporting their absentee votes in one batch that was heavily skewed to Biden. This ignores the fact that these ballots were counted in secret without party observers and may well have contained unregistered, illegal, or multiply counted ballots. The Wayne county recount found 171,000 votes that did not correspond to registered voters but were certified anyway. The fact that they all showed up at the same time looks more like the old-fashioned "bums rush" approach to ballot stuffing. Without thorough audits of these ballots no one can be sure this was legitimate at this point.
Yeah they cheated heavily and now they lie. Coming up with all sorts of mental gymnastics to justify this. Yet in summary, this whole thing is so off that the committed fraud is obvious to everyone with two eyes. I really hope they strike this down in the Supreme Court.
Yeah, you don’t offer any credible evidence of such. Um.....Bullshit
You should go back to troll school, snowflake.
Actually he just did
Says this BentOver one on a page full of credible evidence. As Another One said, and I paraphrase, "if you were blind then you'd have an excuse for not seeing the truth, but since you insist that you can see, then you are simply a liar."
Trolls like Bennie are too stupid to read or comprehend the article
If TFG had actual verifiable facts, he wouldn't have has to beg, plead, and harass election officials to change the counts. but he didn't. He lost, fair and square. .
SCOTUS will strike this down and Trump is coming out on top. He will not let them get away with this. 98.5% of his base do not want him to concede because he did not lose. He is actually winning electorally if the country was run legally. It is contested and there was no deadline constitutionally and until SCOTUS rules, nobody officially won any of those states that Google wants to censor and claim is over. It is actually funny because nobody is noticing or fighting for the obvious. The entire situation should have stopped at the poll watchers being persecuted all over the swing states in a strategic Hitler like method, which they always forget to hold a mirror in front of their face when they make accusations. The problem we have is that we let them change the subject and then go along the rabbit trail that leads nowhere.
It is like:
Rep: You killed this person
Dem: No I did not
Rep: We have footage
Dem: you guys cheat
Rep: No we dont
Dem: How about 20 years ago
Rep: that was a one time thing
Dem: You are in trouble you murderer
Rep: No. Im not
Social Media: Rep fact checked and proven to be murderer
MSM: Rep are murderers
General Public, Academia, Hollywood: Rep are murderers. You guys are racist and you are trying to stage a Coup
Rep: Holy crap. How did we get here?
It should have been like:
Rep: Overwhelming Evidence of Fraud
Judge: Here, take all these Electoral Votes back
Dem: Shit we got caught
It is like...you've mixed your drinks, hit the crack pipe and truly let rip!!!
perhaps fact checkers might learn about facts, in a comfort of a prison cell
No whichever side you are on facts and fact checkers are a positive . let the data challenge your perceptions and free you from your prison cell echo chambers. Were all in them.Most people on both sides of this are good people. I made mistake of engaging deeply a few weeks back and can already sense I'm getting annoyed and ruder with my posts
Let's just start over and count all the votes, every single one. then we can watch him lose all over again.
The ballots were not counted in secret and there were republican and democrat observers. trumps lawyers have admitted this in court because they cannot lie there the way they can in the media.
And funny how these only happened in swing states. You would think NYC or LA or Chicago, or some of the other heavily urban areas would have similar vote dumps.
These swing states are where Republican controlled legislatures prohibited any absentee ballot processing before election day. The spikes happened long after election-day in-person votes have been counted, leaving absentees, which already lean blue, but furthermore are from heavily blue large population centers. Not saying audits or recounts shouldnt happen, but to say that thspikes prove fraud is simply insufficient. Quite the contrary, if audits and recounts turn up no large disparities, and courts ultimately rule against Trump then all sides should abide by the election. Same goes if the supreme court rule for Trump
Most of the states have rules that don't allow any processing of ballots until election day. Pennsylvania has this law but in the larger heavily Democrat cities it was ignored and ballots were opened before election day. Voters whose ballots had errors were called and allowed to come correct their errors. That in itself is not illegal but it can't be done before election day. The rural areas, more Republican, followed the state law. Having extra time to do this is a big advantage. Furthermore, not every state counts ballots in the same order. Some count mail-in/absentee ballots first, some last, and some don't follow any order. The one huge vote dump in MI or WI had a 95%-5% ratio. That big of a ratio could only be seen in DC and even there it wouldn't be all at once. In a state that was close or very close it just doesn't happen without a lot of ballot stuffing.
The spikes happened in the early morning hours of Wednesday. There was no meaningful oversight of paper ballots coming in or the tallying of the non-paper votes.
Sending millions of unsolicited ballots left millions left over for the election officials to play with. Democrats and their values are disastrous to the continuance of our republic.
This is a communist(=globalist) movement embedded in our society that needs to be dealt with.
go to bed, baby
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Ole republics should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light of freedom.
Democrats improved from 2016 to 2020 by 2.7% in non battleground states and 2% in swing states on average. Much of new York just came in last week post this study which is why lead now 7 million plus. No clue on LA. Detroit hugely democrat and the dump percentage actually better than Republicans normally do.
Detroit. 3% republican 2016 2% 2012. 1.8% 2008. Trump did better in than dump than that and you don't even have to factor maiI in so he did considerably better than I would have expected. Just straight percentage...sense I'm becoming obsessed ..posted this 100 times and still waiting to see if one person who didn't already lean toward my view of the analysis would find it compelling
This "analysis" is garbage. The timing of when votes are reported doesn't have to follow any particular pattern.
Yes. Actually the do. It’s called science. Don’t you trust the science?
This is math not science. There are no testable hypotheses in this piece. The only thing their math shows is that it takes longer to count votes when they are in bigger groups(i.e. cities) and that each of the 4 states has a big city with lots of democratic voters.
I’m a Mathematician/statistician. Yes math is science. And data follows a smooth curve when there is enough of it. When it doesn’t, that alone is evidence of fraud. Not to mention all the rest. Tell me you science credentials. And if you don’t think math is science then don’t ever see a dr or get the vaccine or believe Covid etc... because we’re the guys that do all the science there.
A masters degree in Electrical Engineering from Georgia Tech. This may help explain it to you:
https://www.maa.org/external_archive/devlin/LockhartsLament.pdf
There is also a more fundamental way to resolve the question of you received more votes. It's called an audit, which Georgia did, a recount which Wisconsin and Georgia did, and extensive controls like 3 memeber(democrat, republican, indecent) teams to count votes and certify votes which every state did.
Not at all impressed with your engineering degree as it relates to mathematics/statistics. I’m married to an engineer and have a son that’s an engineer. I also worked with all engineers with a DoD contractor for many years. You guys are not too good with math and statistics. And no nothing like that happened. They simply recounted the fraud. There were no controls. It was a duplication of election night.
Exactly right. Yes, the ballot stuffing was done. The envelopes were not preserved. It was impossible to verify the ballots. They just re-counted. It was not a forensic examination.
Your husband/son must be environmental or sanitation engineers or perhaps one of the many backyard engineers that make perpetual motion machines. As for your abilities you've stated none but I'm certain my skills are far better than yours. While I know it's difficult to face the reality that to actually steal a presidential election, “the size of the conspiracy would have to be enormous”. It would require a mole in 1000's of election precincts or the Postal Service, such a conspiracy would require a coordinated, mailbox-to-mailbox operation, one with access to a huge stolen database of voter signatures and Social Security numbers. This simply did not happen. If you can't fathom that, you are simply going to have to sulk because Biden will take office on January 20, 2021 and you will have participated in making the country less great not more.
"They simply recounted the fraud."
Circular reasoning. You have no evidence of fraud. The Trump campaign hasn't introduced any evidence in court. They can assert any old nonsense in the media, but not in court.
You're a joke !
Georgia merely recounted already counted fraudulently entered ballots. And...they prevented observers from observing. Oh, and then there are the commercial PO Boxes having multiple absentee ballots associated with each, resulting in a multiplier. Oh...and then there are the people who found out someone had voted for them, and their provisional was not counted. Apparently you have not looked at the non-compliant things GA officials did.
audit can only uncover counting errors but not a fraud. the only fundamental way to resolve ALL issues is to redo voting in the disputed areas.
Audits would need to compare paper ballot counts against machine tabulated numbers, I am not sure that this has been done or can be done! The statistical analysis of the data, assuming the 50 States use similar procedures is useful to identify counts that don't conform. It points out anomalies to target further investigations. The report clears most of the States and points to areas for further scrutiny. There was fraud, this has been proven, the next step is to determine if it was enough to affect the election.
U clearly passed the stupid exam and failed common sense. In the Audit GOP wanted signatures verified because counting fraudulent votes is still fraud. This FRAUD is centered on the basic premise of include fraudulent votes into the mix where they cannot be discerned from legitimate votes. Only option all votes not verified are failed - option sue the election committee (all Democrats)
While engineering uses math, it's not a degree that lends itself to statistical analysis
"While engineering uses math, it's not a degree that lends itself to statistical analysis"
Tell that to all the people who specialize in machine learning, control systems, communication theory, or operations research.
LOL. You know nothing about the field.
Disagree your math. 1000 small dumps of little townships and one big dump of a large city such a Philadelphia. How do you compare these different data dumps mathematically? Philadelphia has 94% for Biden, is that not allowed?
Hypothetical test: let's redo voting in the disputed areas. it's not going to take a lot of both time and money and would remove any doubts. now name a single democrat who would support this.
If I'm the loser, of course I will challenge the winner: do you dear to redo the areas that you won?
but why the winner should follow? If every-time the loser does this, when are we going to finish?
You call it hypothetical test. I'm sorry I call it loser mentality.
NOT WHEN IN OTHER BIG CITIES HE DIDN'T GET THAT HIGH A VOTE!
He did worse than Hilary & Obama everywhere except the 5 major cities in swing states.
2016 Texas: Hilary 3,877,868 (43.24%)
2020 Texas: Biden 5,259,126 (46.5%)
2016 Florida: Hilary 4,504,975(47.82%)
2020 Florida: Biden 5,297,045(47.9%)
2016 Philadelphia: Hillary 584,025(82.53%)
2020 Philadelphia: Biden 603,790 (81.4%)
Why don't you look at the real data before you make such a false statement?
Biden is doing better than Hilary almost everywhere but in Philadelphia he actually not as good as Hilary's 82.53%
Yeah its not allowed because you could go to literally any precinct in the entire country and if you run an audit and verify and only count the legal registered votes in that precinct there is no way in hell Biden is taking 94 percent of the vote. So no it's not allowed.
why Taxes some ridiculous high trump support counties are allowed?
Watch a video explaining the anomalies. I can’t possibly educate you here. And no it’s not just mathematically and statistically improbable, it’s impossible. 1/62,000 chance is 0 chance. It’s math. Clearly you can’t do arithmetic.
1/62,000 chance is because the calculation is flawed. It happen every election year, it is an almost 100% chance.
Like the lottery. Impossible.
Philadelphia went 85% for Obama, 82% for Hillary. This year, Philly shows 81% Biden(95% reporting). So, yes, a single LARGE dump showing 94% for Biden would be suspect. A small report from Philly showing 94% would be expected and is accounted for in the analysis. The article compares margin and log-ratio for this reason. In fact, nothing from PA shows up as anomalous in this particular analysis (which isn't to say there was no cheating in PA, if you watched the PA legislature hearing from the end of November, you'll see a forensic analyst claiming PA had suspicious updates happening consistently throughout the day-- but I haven't done a close look at those claims yet).
In the article above, you can see a HUGE dump from NY shows up in the outliers with the swing state updates. But some boroughs of NYC went 88% for Hillary, and even then outlier update in the NYT data is still only around 80% for Biden. Also, the big NY update happened around 9:00 PM, not in the middle of the night, so really no surprises there. Plus, it's New York. The city alone has 8 million people, only slightly less than the entire state of Michigan.
Let's go into details. The article analyzed four abnormal data dumps, two of them in MI:
"An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump".
"An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump".
Let's add the two MI dumps together, it is 195,755 votes for Biden, 10,686 votes for Trump. That is 94.8% for Biden, 5.2% for Trump.
Let's look at Detroit, according to https://detroitmi.gov/webapp/election-results , Detroit as whole, 233,908 votes for Biden, 12,654 votes for Trump. That's 94.9% for Biden, 5.1% for Trump.
Now, do you really think the two abnormal data dumps are indication of fraud? Or do you think these two large dumps are both come from Detroit?
" Yes math is science."
What? No it's not. Mathematics- inductive and deductive reasoning- is a branch of philosophy. It is NOT science.
"And data follows a smooth curve when there is enough of it. When it doesn’t, that alone is evidence of fraud."
^No real scientist would say something as nonsensical as this.
You’re an idiot.
You're a cunt.
Mathematics is a language of numbers. While a language, it is a hard language, not a soft-philosophical one. At its core, mathematics is the stuff of the matrix which expresses the interrelatedness of all things. And yes, non-conforming points from data curves can indicate anomalies (which could be interpreted as identifying suspect data points...and in this case, fraud.)
Excuse me, neither a scientist nor mathematician, but smart enough to know that this is bs: "When [data] doesn't [follow a smooth curve], that alone is evidence of fraud."
I agree with you except for the "evidence of fraud". Their is evidence of an outlier that cant be explained. The next step would be to identify all the factors that may cause the outlier to test if these factors can in fact explain it. Unfortunately with only four observations this isnt going to be likely so we have four outliers that we cant explain. This in itself does not prove fraud.
They appear pretty easy to explain. Also analysis would no longer show them close to biggest outlier I believe anymore ...I did not rerun this analysis. .big chunk of New York just came in earlier today and bumped Biden's lead by additonal 600k to 6.94 million dwarfing these others but for same general reason....areas of hugely democratic big cities.
Correction my 600k increase in lead was right and Biden now up 7.05 million but my ratio is off and it wasn't the largest as I implied. Nothing needed , double checked all the Detroit data I posted and that was correct. Trump outperformed historically in that data dump
Wrong. These don’t represent single data points but 1,000’s of votes. That proves massive fraud. There’s also many other points. Such as the physical impossibility of inputting these at the rate they were tabulated.
Exactly right. It's amazing to me that so many self-professed geniuses in this discussion only accept a single possibility for whatever statistical anomaly they think they've found. The irony is this: By accepting only a single possible explanation, they show how little they know about statistical analysis. That includes you Jared. You too T-B-V.
Yes, math is science, that's not the problem here. Explain to me how a "smooth curve" is applied to the "REPORTING OF VOTES" timing. This analysis isn't "complaining" about the physical count of votes, but the UPDATES. The process of REPORTING VOTES is dictated by the office of the secretary of state in each of these states. That's not to imply that the process is fixed and unchanging. So, I'll ask again, how do you curve fit that process?
Smooth curve applies to reporting of votes because votes are reported in batches of different size. The relevant expectation here, which you would understand if you had spend more time reading the article instead of posting disingenuous attacks in the comments, is that as the margin of victory for any given reported batch of votes increases, the probability of an extreme ratio decreases.
In theory, it doesn't really matter the mechanism for sorting the report batches. So long as the reporting mechanism is agnostic with regards to the content of the vote totals, the assertion should hold. Take 2016 San Francisco as an example. It went 85% for Hillary, with about 400,000 votes. Imagine 100,000 votes are reported in a batch. What are the odds of 96,900 of those will all be reported for Hillary? Almost zero. It does not matter where they came from at this point. The ratio is just too skewed to be believable for a sample of 100,000 votes, even in a place where we know is already heavily skewed.
What you need to explain, is why anyone would any state selectively withhold reports of Biden votes, only to report them all in the dead of night under circumstances that immediately makes everyone suspicious of fraudulent activity?
I fully understood the "expectation" as you call it. I don't know that the homogeneity of the batches must follow the expectation that you have. It's been a while but shouldn't a confidence interval calculation have been done here? The author uses the phrase "almost impossible to believe" which, honestly, you don't see in papers that would be submitted for peer review. I hope this work is thoroughly reviewed by experts who also have access to the data needed to do a proper review. As to your question about "witholding" the reporting, I hope a thorough investigation provides you with an answer.
I’m not sure what your asking. But a large vote dump with a distribution of 99% to Biden between 1 and 4 am, that couldn’t be inputted at the rate it was, where the ballots can’t be produced is fraud. Just the 99% alone is fraud.
I can't speak to the "rate of input" but the posts here by "Ross Stalker" touch on factors that could explain it. I tend to agree that 99% of any particular batch, of a significant size of course, would raise eyebrows. I just haven't researched that particular claim enough to be able to comment.
It points out anomalies to target further investigations. The report clears most of the States and points to areas for further scrutiny. There was fraud, this has been proven, the next step is to determine if it was enough to affect the election.
Where has the fraud been proven?
Not much of one, apparently. There's no reason for the cumulative value over time of non-random discrete count data to be a smooth curve.
Actually there is. There are only two reasons a curve isn’t smooth: not enough data or fraud. The more data, the more smooth the curve. And we have plenty of data here. And “non-random discrete data” is complete gibberish. Is that something the Ministers of Propaganda told you? Discrete variables have nothing to do with actuals. Lol.
You've already made clear in other posts that you are almost certainly lying about your background. If you think that "discrete data" is gibberish, you are obviously not a mathematician or statistician. I'm only being combative because of your attitude toward other comments here.
Discrete data can only take on specific values. You can't have 0.52852 votes. In this data, some ranges of values are less frequent than others. Most of the updates were very small. The top tenth percentile in the Edison data were around 30,000 and they range up to over 1,000,000. If you look at the distribution of update sizes (I have) it is not Gaussian. It's not even log-normal and may follow a power law distribution.
So in a sense it is sort of true that it is due to a lack of data, but not because of sample size but because of either how things happened to be reported or, if it is correlated to counties, because there is not actually a smooth distribution of populations in reality.
The updates themselves are not random samples of state-wide votes; an update might be heavy on mail-in ballots from part of a city, each of which might be biased toward one candidate. Together, it could make it very biased. But that would vary from city to city. The variation in vote ratio goes up with size. This is evidence supporting variation between cities and suggests that there are confounding variables.
Combine those factors, you will probably see large sudden jumps in any cumulative plot of total votes. Since larger updates are also more rare, there is not enough data to be confident enough to call any of these anomalies.
Your statement: "When it doesn't, that alone is evidence of fraud." This is 100% incorrect. It is evidence of a yet to be explained influence. You, and so many others, want to believe it is fraud but it may be something else.
The only safe way to explain it is to tell the 6 states that they must not certify results. Trump is then the President.
Biden should be allowed to challenge on the basis that all 6 states hand over the machines ballots envelopes and any video etc to a special investigator with bi partisan control. The scope will be to charge ANYONE found guilty of any fraud with TREASON.
I would put money on Biden saying he is just going to moan for the next 4 years. None of the senior party or the heads of Google/Facebook/Twitter etc etc and 90% of the press would dare risk the death penalty
Guess what, anyone found guilty of this type of election fraud would not be convicted of treason. Look it up.
"The only safe way to explain it is to tell the 6 states that they must not certify results." That sentence makes no sense.
Oh enlighten us wise one. It’s fraud. It’s called forensic evidence. 🤡
If you saw data that showed trump outperformed republicans in this dataset for detroit since.at least 2008 would that change your mind on that one item. I'm having similar discussion with someone not online and trying to figure.out how to reach them. Also on the other side I have someone that has went the other way and literally thinks trump is controlled by the devil and I'm trying to reach them as well. These are both good people and feel like they are.both going.down a rabbit hole and trying out logic and data on a.bunch of sites to see what resonates and.feels.like nothing does with either extreme and its really depressing
Still waiting for an answer....
You have what you feel is "evidence", of something. Fine. Why can it _only_ be evidence of fraud? Just answer that simple question...
It quacks like a duck, it walks like a duck, it looks like a duck. You- it might not be a duck.
Try not to be a simpleton.
When you actively destroy evidence before everything is settled you are OBVIOUSLY hiding something.
Why not verify signatures?
Why separate envelopes from ballots?
Why no voter I.D.?
Why not make it mandatory to REQUEST a mail in ballot if you want 1?
Why disregard established law in states and accept ANY ballot regardless of errors or omissions?
Why stop the vote counting?
Coincidence that every state that stopped the vote counting and discovered Trump was WAY up suddenly had HUGE vote dumps for Hidin Biden?
Any 1 anomaly is rare. Each additional anomaly favoring the same side raises the incidence of fraud exponentially.
To disregard that is just dishonest at best.
You're bringing up some very "big picture" issues and I'm trying to stick to this particular mathematical analysis and interpretation. And states didn't "stop the voting". Let's see your proof they did.
Your statement: "When it doesn't, that alone is evidence of fraud." This is 100% incorrect. It is evidence of a yet to be explained influence. You, and so many others, want to believe it is fraud but it may be something else.
It’s fraud
That's what I thought. Giving you a red heart here.
That's not what this math shows...it shows that the vote counting AND reporting in high populous battleground state cities were vastly anomalous to almost every other precinct in the US. It's highly suspicious that these extremes in counting/reporting would exist in key battleground state cities.
There is no VAST anomaly in these datapoints. They're just the most extreme values which are expected in any sampling study. Statistically speaking, it is not unexpected to see outliers this large based on the overall distribution. The author likely knows this and provided p-values based on an illegitimate null hypothesis. Based on the overall handling of the data manipulation (term intentionally used), I would be very surprised if the author didn't do this intentionally as a way to mislead non-or lay- scientists.
Not with normalized data sets! That is the point. Votes coming in by MAIL should be randomly distributed, whatever the ratios.
Votes coming in by mail will NOT be randomly distributed and that's the whole point (and where this author made their critical error/attempt to deceive)!
At 6:31AM there was a report in Michigan of Biden getting 141,257 votes vs 5,968 for Trump, a 96.9% ratio. You have failed to explain that. You can't just dismiss a sample that large as an "outlier." That's roughly the population of Kansas City.
Er, that's what the whole analysis is about. A practicing statistician would not pinpoint that datapoint as an obvious anomaly. In fact, it's no more of an outlier than the Fig 10 datapoints at -1,9 or -8,-1. Now those three datapoints at x = -1, and y < -8 are SUSPICIOUS - we do not expect three values grouped so far beyond the tail - I wonder what kind of hanky panky was going on there...?
Literally Detroit voted lower republican than that last 3 elections. I lived near Detroit 40 plus years...its that democratic
You are a moron "There is no VAST anomaly in these datapoints." Buahahahahahaha!
No, it's just that I know how to interpret and evaluate data and you don't.
when compared to other metro areas that also had high volumes of mail in votes, these are indeed abnormalities.
But did they also have high volumes of mail in votes, AND have state laws that meant those ballots couldn't be processed before Election Day? Because that's an important difference between these states and other states.
Show me the data
and in a 5 hour window when all 4 states supposedly stopped the count and sent observers home.....very odd.
Would that window happen to be in the middle of the night? I think so and not so odd. Please tell me why reporting has to stop when counting stops. I think we can agree that reporting must occur after counting. How much time delay do you think is reasonable between the ending of counting and reporting?
It's actually the opposite. Counting continued all night long. There wasn't any reporting because counts aren't reported until the large absentee counting boards were completed and reconciled. A lot of people don't seem to understand that the results from ballot counting don't happen in real time.
Counting is very important...the TIMING of reporting is much less so. So, for the moment, may be focus on counting? In what ways was vote counting "vastly anomalous"?
Reporting is irrelevant. Physical vote counts are all that matters. Go ahead and do another round of recounts....
The problem is the elimination of the verification stage by the Dems through litigation before the election and that can't be fixed. Once you get a ballot post verification (signature, ID, etc.) and it is separated from its envelope, it is unidentifiable. If it is fraudulent, then you have succeeded in getting it into the process with no way to retrieve it. So a recount would just recount the same fraudulent votes introduced into the system. The only way to fix it is to void the elections in these states and have a snap election, in person, with ID. If Biden won by these margins, then he will win again. If there were hundreds of thousands of fraudulent votes, however, Biden will lose bigly.
That's the thing about conspiracist ideations, there is always a "gotcha". So, what you are saying here is that a massive fraud has taken place by which illegal votes were injected into the system. But the perpetrators, while masterful at injecting those votes, screwed up on the timing of the act? In other words, they should have "spread it out"? Of course, your statement about elimination of verification is just plain false.
The authors visually suggest that the certain updates in MI, WI and GA look anomalous (e.g. in joint extremity of vote ratios and vote differences, in update times, etc.), relative to other updates from the counties and states in question, as well as to updates from other counties across the country, including other urban Democrat strongholds.
The next step would be to test whether the claims made in the visual demonstration are statistically significant, given reasonable assumptions about the data generating process. With almost 9k updates across the country, including multiple updates per county and a large number of urban counties, it might be feasible to do that.
Your claim is that urbanisation alone explains these apparent anomalies. If it does, then updates from similarly urbanised counties elsewhere in the country should appear to be similarly anomalous. Based on the authors’ visual story, that doesn’t seem to be the case. To be convincing, that visual argument should be supported by a model that produces testable hypotheses about the extremity of updates, given all of these variables like urbanisation, state law, etc.
An important variable many people are ignoring are when ballots are counted and reported. For example, in Michigan, absentee ballots couldn't not be counted before Election Day. With a record breaking vote and a record number of absentee ballots, it was going to take long into the night and into the next day, in some cases, to count all the ballots. That delayed the reporting of results in some jurisdictions. In states that allowed those ballots to be counted before Election Day, like Florida and Ohio, those results were reported almost immediately, no matter the size of the jurisdiction. Most of these "anomalies" are nothing more than artifacts of how and when the votes were reported.
So I’m curious, do we know when the absentee ballots boards reported? Are these reports published? If there are 1500 AB boards, did they all report at the same time?
Mathematics and logic is 1 of the 4 branches of science. Both show this was a Fraudulent election as does probability. like Trump won 26 of the 27 40 year bellweather counties,51 of the 57 10 year and all of the 27 seats the democrats targetted! would be the only sitting president to get more votes and lose(11 million)only president in 150 years to win Ohio & Florida and lose.Biden won with more% votes in 4 cities than Kim jong Un,Sadat and Sadam Hussein! but did not have the same results in other cities of comparable population make up. when 24 pallets of votes are transported (evidence says even more) from NY-where they would not be needed to PA where they almost certainly became a 4.30am dump that had to be entered without vetting.
When u have something with scales, gills,swim bladders,cold blooded or live in water it is probably a fish. When it has all 5 IT IS A FISH!
BIden did.better in no battleground states than battleground in improvement from 2016 2.7% to 2%. These anomalies dumps include percentages where trump performed better than any Republican had since at least 2008. Detroit's vote increase from 2016 far less than Michigan or US average. The only president to lose by over 7 million votes....it doesn't look like a fish
not sure i understand your point
Point is that fraud could make sense if trump did worse than historic in anomalies. where he did better that would be a sign of no fraud or trump fraud. 2nd point is people keep saying fraud was in Battleground states and on Nov 5th you could see that Biden did better in improvements from 2016 in battleground states but vote counting kept increasing in non battleground and the reverse is now true as we pass 7 million Biden lead. Showing that this data at least doesn't support some of the narrative.of fraud. Thanks for asking
Math is science. 🙄
When you talk about "science" or use the word "science" to refer to something concrete, you are doing hypostasis. The "part" is muddied in the "whole" or the whole in the part. Mathematics is not "science", mathematics is one of the sciences among others; therefore "mathematics is a science" and not "mathematics is science". Problems are not solved by science but by one or more specific scientific categories: math, physics, chemistry, & c. To make a lens you do not resort to medicine, nor to "science", you resort to optics, mechanics, and chemistry (for coatings). When people say that science has solved the origin of the universe: this is pure metaphysics or scientific fundamentalism. Very similar to the use made of other words like "humanity", "democracy", & c.
Wrong. Mathematics is the foundation of all science. Mathematics is the science on which the whole world is based. Man doesn’t invent Mathematics, he discovers it.
In many ways, math is closely related to science. ... Mathematics is such a useful tool that science could make few advances without it. However, math and standard sciences, like biology, physics, and chemistry, are distinct in at least one way: how ideas are tested and accepted based on evidence.
Math is science. It’s the purest science there is. The most precise. That is a fact. Math is the evidence in all those fields.
"Math is science. It’s the purest science there is."
Mathematics is not science. It is a branch of philosophy.
No, math uses logic. Theres a distinction between what Mathematics claims as proof in contrast to science. For a scientist, ten experiments with consistent results might constitute proof, For a mathematician, a million successful experiments is not enough proof. Instead, mathematicians rely on logic. Mathematics is very often inspired by nature, but it is a purely intellectual pursuit. It is just a bunch of ideas in our heads, like philosophy. Pure abstract reasoning. Someone who has a degree in Mathematics is call a mathematician and someone you has a degree in physics, biology, chemistry is call a scientist.
Wow, you actually think math is not science? You think that math was not developed using the scientific method? That statistics was not developed using the scientific method? Statistics itself is the backbone of every higher scientific endeavor. Math is the root science of all other science. Math is the fundamental science that holds all other science together. I'm amazed that you think math is not science when it is the foundation science of all other science.
"You think that math was not developed using the scientific method?"
Ha! You don't even know what the scientific method is. Nor do you understand what mathematics is.
Science could not exist without math. Math and logic are not tools of science... They are the basis for it.
Meaning there is no such thing as scientific evidence without mathematical analysis... And mathematical analysis is itself scientific evidence.
Science could not exist without language. language is not tools of science... It is the basis for it.
Meaning there is no such thing as scientific evidence without language... And language is itself scientific evidence.
The above is a false augment. Regarding what should be considered as science, please check with the most influential philosophers of science Karl Popper.
Math is not a branch of philosophy. Are you the kid that ate the glue?
No, it's a statistical argument and can be considered evidence in a US court of law.
No, that's false. The article's import is that highly "anomalous" voter ratios, particularly in comparison with 3rd party results, are strongly indicative of fraud. Statistical evidence of this type is admitted into evidence in voter fraud cases all the time. Whistleblower affidavits also indicate exactly how it happened.
The analysis is a tool to identify anomalies to target further investigations. The report clears most of the States and points to areas for further scrutiny. There were other lines of evidence that identified fraud, this has been proven, the next step is to determine if it was enough to affect the election.
Science is math, How do you think Scientist can figure out how long it takes to go tot the moon and orbit the earth thru Math. As they say it is scientifically mathematically impossible.
Nope. Science is not = to math and anyone who thinks so is not a scientist.
Have you been hitting Hunters pipe? What is science?
This isn't science, it's garbage. Reporting of votes isn't some physical process. Votes can and were reported in clumps. Jeez... stupid people...
Wrooooong. its pattern analysis. NOT vote counting.
When the pattern breaks, it means someone put numbers in manually not understanding that they were breaking human voting patterns.
More or less Democrats does not change the patttern.
Higher density of D or R is typically a smaller sample county.
Larger counties do not get 95%+ D or R eveeeeeeeeeer.
You're assuming each data dump is a random sample of ballots, but that isn't how the process works.
Verification of mail-in ballots. Ballots sent for adjudication. Transcribed ballots. All reasons that batches of ballots might not be reported in the same order that they were counted. And that's all perfectly normal.
There's no expectation of uniformity between counties on how they will report their unofficial results.
Also if someone just put numbers in manually, that would be discovered during the state elections board canvass of counties.
What you're ignoring is that these winning vote dump anomalies only happened in the 4 swing states in 4 updates in the middle of the night. If it was legitimate we could expect to see similar midnight reporting spikes in many other states and big cities like L. A., New York, Seattle, etc. where tons of democrats also used mail in voting. Nope, we only see it in the" too close to call "swing states where Trump was winning before the dumps happened. Fraud.
What you're ignoring is that results reported on election night are always unofficial, and are separate from the official tabulation for certification by the state canvassing boards, and also that different states have different rules around the processing of ballots.
You wouldn't expect to see a "midnight reporting spike" in New York. Why? Because New York didn't even start processing mail-in ballots until November 6th! And their process for verifying mail-in ballots is particularly slow as well. NY was called for Biden by the networks on the basis of early and on-the-day in-person voting. But it took more than a week for all the House races to be called.
As for Seattle? Almost everyone in Washington votes by mail, and ballots are alloweed to arrive as late as November 23 (so long as they are postmarked in time). In Washington the counties can start processing mail-in ballots as soon as they receive them, and they release updated totals once at the end of each day. With the vast majority of ballots being mail-in, and with them being processed and reported on a rolling basis, mail-in ballots don't cause a "spike" here, midnight or otherwise.
As for Los Angeles; California has a long history of mail-in voting. It is another state where mail-in ballots can be processed before Election Day. They aren't counted before Election Day, but if they arrive early enough that staff aren't totally focused on Election Day prep (i.e. before the weekend preceding Election Day) they are verified and ready to count. So in most counties, the first votes reported will be mail-in votes that arrived early, then in-person early votes - and THEN in-person on the day votes. Followed by mail-in votes that weren't processed before Election Day. So again, mail-in ballots in California don't cause that same "spike"... middle of the night or otherwise.
So no. Not fraud. Just low information on your part.
It’s important to add that we don’t see similar anomalies in all of the key swing states. PA, AZ and NV don’t appear have them. Neither do FL and OH.
If what appear to be anomalies were simply artefacts of mass mail-in voting in swing states with Democrat-dominated urban centres, then we’d expect to see similar patterns in other such states, including states that Trump won. The fact that we don’t at least suggests that the explanation isn’t as simple as a combination of mass mail-in voting and Democrat-dominated urban centres.
all mail in ballots have to have observers of both parties watching the envelope opening. at 011 to 0700 there were none so not a single vote in these batches was legal. That is a loss of hundreds of thousands of votes for Biden in every state. In any case the legislatures cannot certify unless there is a complete investigation and only Trump will do that
As I already said, the unofficial vote totals are not updated in real-time, a batch could be added to the unofficial totals after it has actually been counted. That's the nature of the unoffical totals, although they are updated in batches there's no expectation that the counties need to try and do this in real-time. Adding numbers to those unofficial totals isn't what makes those numbers 'legal'. There's a separate process of tabulation for the state election board's canvassers which is what makes the numbers official.
But on the issue of mail-in ballots, you are even more wrong. Because the ballot envelope opening, and verification of whether or not the ballot should be accepted, is a separate process from the counting of the mail-in ballots that have been accepted.
I think you should stop speculating on these things until you go and actually look learn about how the process works on the ground. Maybe watch some of the videos from the different counts - there are many. Because knowing that the validation and the counting of the mail-in ballots are two separate processes, that could happen hours apart (or in the states where they're allowed to validate them before Election Day, could happen days or even weeks apart), is a REALLY basic bit of knowledge about how the process works.
And honestly, it's frankly embarassing for you that you didn't know this, and yet in another comment you said with absolute certainty that we should "accept that there was probably fraud" so it's "on balance better to keep the current incumbent". You are really in no position to allege that the things you're noticing are evidence of fraud when you clearly lack this very basic knowlege of how the count process works generally.
Rrff
The trolls are too stupid to understand how statistics works. Don't waste too much time explaining to them idiots.
I find it hard to believe that a person with such poor grammar understands statistics.
Believe it bitch.....I took 2 statistics courses as part of my major in Mechanical Engineering (Bachelor of Science t*rdface). And I aced both the 200 level stats course and the 400 level Statistics for Engineering. Statistics is cake.....as if I care what you think of me. Moron.
Then do a recount. The "physical" ballots are available.
But they aren't in many cases. They are images standing in for ballots. Electronic "image" ballots that were recorded by humans who were not the original voter.
Ok, you're telling me that the original hard copy ballots are no longer available in these states? If true that is a surprise to me and it doesn't seem wise. But, as others like Miss1776 have pointed out, if the ballots themselves were fraudulent then the recount is meaningless. So, at the end of the day, I withdraw my suggestion to recount.
Straw man argument that you make over and over again. Once the ballots are removed from the envelopes they are untethered to an actual, legal voter. Counting illicit ballots over and over again is how we got here and why the anomalies exist.
How convenient for your side. You just described a situation that appears unwinnable. This statistical analysis isn't enough in court. If there was fraud, you need to provide more than statistics.
I just looked at the City of Detroit Absentee ballots (more relevant to this analysis than total In-Person plus Absentee).
Detroit City Absentee was 166,203 Biden / 6,153 Trump / 1,081 Other thus 95.8% / 3.5% / 0.6%
Wayne County (of which Detroit is a part) Absentee was 426,129 Biden / 131,315 Trump
Of note, Detroit appears to have reported its results directly to the state. See my other comments on this thread for details and links.
So then you go to precinct level data in Detroit and find precincts with over 95% voter turnout and many with over 100% of registered voters. So tell us again?
You'd have to supply a link or reference. I believe many of the >100% reports are explained by on-site Election Day voter registration. In my opinion this is terrible public policy: (1) undermines integrity of voter rolls, (2) encourages voting by people who don't care enough to bother registering beforehand.
But the article is a statistical approach to identifying potential fraud, and I'll try harder to keep my comments on-topic.
Nope. That's not what it is. Pattern analysis is a statistical analysis that requires data from many many elections (when applied to elections) and does not work for anomalous elections like this one (i.e. unprecedented turnout). In addition, as with all stats analysis, the result is a possible answer and not the ground truth because, when dealing with people, there's a huge element of randomness.
You are uneducated fool for thinking this analysis is garbage. If you think having a candidate of your choice sit as President is more important than the future of our elections then you deserve to lose your citizenship. Millions of people have died protecting our constitution. I used to always vote Democrat but over the years the party has been taken over by criminals who are trying to destroy our constitution. As America wakes up the Democrat party is falling apart and more people are moving away from them which is why they cheat. Trump rallies would have 10’s of thousands show up with traffic backed up so badly many thousands more couldn’t even get in and the most people Biden had at any rally was 14 people. That was a good turn out for him too. Wake the fuck up man
Many of Biden's rallies had hundreds of supporters -- the rallies in cemetaries.
LOL, even this "libtard" found that funny. Bravo!
The real source of many Dem Votes lol
Biden voters didn't and don't need to go rallies. As a republican, I will also say that rallies are stupid, and serve no purpose. They were basically voting against Trump, not *for* Biden.
Plus there is a correlation:
- People who voted for Biden are very concerned about Covid19, tend to wear masks and socially distance. Of course they would follow the advice to avoid big crowds.
- People who voted for Trump were generally less alarmed about the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, his tightly packed rallies left high numbers of infected people in their wake.
This also explains the mail-in votes skewed for Biden (aside from people who were very clear that they wanted to get rid of Trump perhaps also wanting to vote in advance so they could say, been there, done that.... vs. whatever might happen on Election Day)
Well, and trump literally told his supporters not to vote by mail because their votes wouldn't get counted... That maybe played a role in why mail in was skewed toward biden. Just a thought, you know, because reasons.
I don't think this analysis is garbage, but after a lot of thought, I don't think it points to anything meaningful. I think there has to be better evidence out there and this is a distraction from finding it. I just wish it would come out. I've so far been very let down by what has been presented as evidence and was really disappointed after watching the star witness in Michigan, particularly during her interview with Lou Dobbs. Maybe our president has the wrong people running this. Interesting side note, while I lined up to vote for our president, I do know more than a handful of my republican friends voted for biden by mail, not because they like him, but against Mr Trump. I can't imagine what they were thinking, but they did. Purely anecdotal, but it did make me wonder.
Millions have died?
Millions die every year. What's your point?
Did you read Joe's remark? "Millions of people have died protecting our constitution." Is it reasonable to assume that would be comprised of all the men and women killed in our many wars?
That’s the mirror pal. It’s science. I’m an actual scientist. Go back to your barista job. And these numbers aren’t just improbable, they’re impossible.
Hello miss ,
You don’t sound like scientist. I am a guy with 2 masters and one PhD in control systems engineering. So I am must be good at math . There is no correlation between time of vote reporting and number of vote .The number of votes reported are depends on sample size. Higher the sample size , higher the vote . Now, these vote may be mail in ballots counted on side by 100s of machine and aggregated and reported . You can’t correlate timing of votes and numbers to look for patterns. Its equivalent to correlating cars with bread . Two completely unrelated things . Go back to your Geology
Maybe good a math - not at English - and absolutely no common sense! how could these votes happen at 0300 - 0640? there was no counting and no observers so any votes processed at that time would be illegal?
"votes happen'" ? What exactly do you mean by that. You need to learn the entire process. Counting is not the same as release of information. Pretty basic....
Control systems engineering? That isn’t even a real engineer. Lol. Ok. You push paper. What a joke. No you’re not good at math. You suck at math. Absolute gibberish. There is no “sample size” or correlation conversation here. 🤡 The election isn’t a statistical/mathematical exercise, the audit should be. And yes, everything follows a pattern. Everything.
As someone who studied control systems as part of a BSME program, I have to point out that you are clueless. The math involved in this field is very complex. And that specialty is seen in various engineering curricula, Mechanical, Aerospace, Electrical, etc... And this entire thread is mostly about the statistical analysis presented here. This is why those terms are being used. And finally, not everything follows a pattern. At its foundation, statistics teaches us there are "outliers". This is fundamental to the study.
Excellent post and to underscore: "there is no correlation between the TIME OF VOTE REPORTING and NUMBER OF VOTES". By the way, I love those PID control loops. I also focused on control theory but only achieved a lowly BSME.
LOL
Well that also outs you. No statistician would say they're impossible.
Wrong again. Amazing. There are things that are mathematically and statistically impossible. Like this election. Maybe do some research about mathematics.
Thank you for REASON, Miss1776
No they can’t. It’s science
You are lying. there is NO WAY you are a scientist. I am one and I can see that you do not know what you are talking about
Really? tell me about your degrees and work experience. I’ve shared mine.
Thank you! My thoughts exactly.
Trust comes from seeing authors/reviewers/editors/journals stake hard-earned professional reputation on the validity of results. Here I see an anonymous blog post.
Not sure what your point is but it’s a stupid one.
You asked “Don’t you trust the science”, I explained why this post lacks the elements that make science trustworthy.
Math and science do not become "trustworthy" because of the name attached to the work. The name of the author (and credentials, for that matter) should be irrelevant. The data is public, and the analysis is laid out clearly for anyone to refute.
The lack of a name attached to the work means the poster has nothing to lose from being wrong. That doesn't mean he _is_ wrong, but from my standpoint he is _more likely_ to be wrong than someone with an incentive not to be wrong (incentive being the protection of hard-earned reputation).
I am right-winger, but I agree without a name less convincing.
In some cases you do need to publish anonymously - but in this case you just need to own up to it. This site has no real information on who runs it, etc. If they are anonymous because of fear of reprisal just say it in site information.
> Math and science do not become "trustworthy" because of the name attached to the work.
Generally speaking this is exactly how they do become trustworthy, and the lack of an identifiable name on this post raises doubts.
Much more importantly in this case, the votes can be audited (recount). So the next question is, how many recounts would you like?
Wrong. It simply means you don’t understand the science. Maybe work on that.
As a professional, it raises much suspicion that this is an anonymous published paper that is not backed by a legitimate organization. A legitimately published piece would have an author in order to establish that persons credentials. Additionally, the public should be aware of how the effort was funded to understand the presence or lack or influence. For all we know, this could have been authored by a foreign national with interests in creating discord in the US, which it clearly seems to be doing by this post. I understand the premise of the work and it is logical, but don’t agree with the conclusion, in that these anomalies show fraud. Anomalies can be created by a mathematical analysis based on the wrong set of variables, or in other words, by a lack of understanding of how the votes were counted. I am interested in seeing something similar to this from a legitimate source.
You can't apply sophisticated math to a turd and turn it into a gold bar. Read the many posts here from the real engineers, mathematicians, and scientists. Their counterpoint is consistent. Also, at the end of the day, all that matters is the actual physical count of ballots and NOT when the reports were issues.
If you're not sure what the point is, how do you ascertain it is a stupid one?
That should be obvious unless your stupid. Think about it.
"you're" ....hmmm a telltale sign of the uneducated...I believe your stories about engineers, math, your son's salary are all made up. You're a fraud.
Surprised you don't understand the scientific method. Did you claim to be a scientist? If you really were a scientist you would know that the S.M. demands that these results must be verified by others.
Mathematics is a very disciplined science unlike the physical sciences. Mathematics proves itself. And many mathematicians are coming to these same conclusions individually which is superior to any “peer review” or white paper. Which are mostly garbage these days.
Well, math "results", like scientific results must be verified. Right? Look at the solution of Fermat's Last Theorem. The initial proof submitted by Wiles was close but not quite correct. Peer review revealed there were problems. Eventually, he provided a rigorous proof.
There is no science here - this is presentation of data in a way that wishes to tell a particular story. The "anomalous" data points shown here are totally expected in any sampling study and statistically-speaking aren't that extreme at all.
Actually no. I’m glad you brought this up. Almost all statistical data is being used as propaganda today so it’s important to understand the difference. Real statistical data always uses raw data, the complete data set, sources the data, and reports the methodology. Propaganda uses manipulated data (or data that has had calculations performed on it), leaves out data, doesn’t source the data and doesn’t report and show the methods. You’re welcome.
Incorrect. Look at the curves and find one other vertical jump even half the size of these. If everyone was looking at these objectively it would jump off the page. Imagine you are looking at a cost of goods analysis for a business instead of such an emotionally charged topic, and you would not be trying to rationalize the irrational.
Er, you're looking at data for two states. I'm originally from England and even I know there are 50 states!!! I guess you totally ignored the data for all 50 states - which is what the authors are hoping. They realize that the mathematically inept will focus on the those charts and forget that the data is cherry picked.
Incorrect. He clearly states that these were specifically picked due to the fact that these were the states that had the largest outliers. Other states did not have these anomalies. Again, dismissing data and ironic name calling due to your emotion attached does not dismiss it.
Depends on the business. In my specialty (medical) crazy outliers for the cost of a good (a specialty drug or an inpatient stay) are very much expected. If I saw this in my own data, I might research it further, but "fraud" (something that's also common in my field) would come after a lot of other benign explanations. The author didn't do nearly enough research to reach any conclusion.
But in those cases, each input can have a drastically different value. A vote is a vote and all are equal value. Even those that point out that it is Detroit which is a larger city and weighted heavily toward Biden votes are forgetting that the author compares Michigan to every other state (with publicly available data). There are several "Biden heavy" states with more densely populated cities like LA, NYC, Chicago, and Boston that did not see these anomalies occur in the middle of the night. I would like to see more data, but if there is a correlation between these being the only "Biden-heavy" urban areas that were in states that were clearly heading toward a Trump victory prior to the stoppages, then it would be naive to dismiss multiple unusual patterns happening in the same manner. And all resulting in the same outcome. This is statistically significant. Not a conspiracy theory. Remove the emotions and just look at it objectively.
The average Democrat and Republican counties differ greatly in size, population, speed of counting, and ratio of absentee vs in person votes. So no the statistics of Trump and Biden county/precincts do not always show the same characteristics. Anomalies are worth investigating, but as the article itself points out, they by themselves are not proof of fraud. The determination of fraud or lack thereof must be made based on the results of th4 investigations and argued out in courts
This facile statistical analysis doesn't provide evidence of anything other than votes were reported in clumps.
Clumps? How big a "clump" is 700,000 ballots? a ream of paper is 500 sheets. A case of paper (10 reams or 5,000 sheets) weighs about 20 pounds. 700,000 one-page ballots is the equivalent of 140 cases of paper (2,800 pounds). So a U-Haul truckload of ballots miraculously "materialized" early in the morning in Philadelphia and pushed Biden over the top after trailing by 670,000 votes?
The question is, do they normally report the votes from each machine or do they wait to report a total for a certain time period. If their normal procedure for the night is to report every 6 hours then yes there can be a large jump in a urban area with Amie dense population. If they had been reporting every 30 min then jumped to 6 hours, then there is a problem.
there was no counting being done during the night so where did these votes come from and who verified them?
Numerous states ''quit'' counting and sent people home so how did these numbers turn up early in the morning if they quit counting?
Because they aren't reported in real-time. Counties could report them hours after they actually counted them. That's how unofficial vote totals work. There's no requirement that they be reported real-time.
No, there isn't, because there are many reasons a batch of ballots would be reported later. If the ballots were set aside for adjudication, for example.
Only global warming science.
Wrong. That is propaganda
When they omit decades of weather data, yes that disqualifies them.
This is not science. Science proves a theory by repeated experimentation and testing. Leaving out known critical data is not "science". All these claims are nothing but conjecture and speculation designed to deceive those that do not actually understand statistics or the scientific method.
This is not science. Science proves a theory by repeated experimentation and testing. Leaving out known critical data is not "science". All these claims are nothing but conjecture and speculation designed to deceive those that do not actually understand statistics or the scientific method.
Wrong. Mathematics is all scientific proof. In every science field. The whole universe is founded on mathematics. From outer space to DNA. If you can’t prove your scientific hypothesis through math, you can’t prove it at all.
Yes we do. Science also shows the COVID-19 Pandemic has become HYPER politicized, which is the reason most trump voters cast their ballots in person and most Biden supporters voted long before by mail. Science also shows in person votes are tabulated first and mail in ballots are voted at the end. Let me know if you need more info. Oh, and please don't feed us unproven allegations that even a Trump appointed judge will not entertain.
To the LEFT, RIGHT and MIDDLE... We should ALL be thankful that what is keeping the USA from falling apart are non partisan judges who hold sacred their duties to call balls and strikes, no matter who is throwing the pitch.
You premise of non-partisan judges that are complicit in the biggest crime in US history is an extremely faulty one.
All that considered there was still massive fraud. If you refuse to see mountains of evidence, you refuse to see.
A massive problem was the illegal changing of election laws in all these swing states by a criminal executive branch and judiciary. Of course they want to bury that.
Elections can’t be audited. Recounting the fraud isn’t an audit. This is also illegal. There must be a chain of custody, production of records, reconciliation within a reasonable margin etc...
The voting machines installed by executive fiat is also illegal. Foreign companies should not be given any part in our elections. Machines and software should be available for audit. We do it with casino software all the time. It should not be accessed by anyone after inspection. They should not be on any network. We need to go to a paper ballot system only.
Not allowing GOP poll watchers to observe or harassing and removing them through a complicit police force is also illegal.
I won’t even go into the actual massive fraud that’s been uncovered and documented for the sake of brevity.
This is NOT science. It is actually the opposite of science. You failed math in science in HS didn't you?
No actually I was in honors. I took trig in 8th grade. Calculus my senior year. But you go. Pretty sure you’re the one that failed math. Mathematics is science. So trust the science.
Your mommy failed the world when she didn't abort you moron.
You're missing the point. What's important is the count of votes, not the "updates" or in other words, when they are reported. Go ahead and recount all of the votes in as many states as you want. Oh, wait, that is already underway. In the meantime, this is conspiracist ideation wrapped in a bunch of mathematics. The application of the math doesn't validate any important hypothesis here.
They are merely recounting the fraud. There is nothing meaningful going on there.
What’s important is not merely a “recount” but verifying that each vote cast against registered voters database and matching the data with appropriate legal voter info
Pattern analysis is NOT vote counting.
The numbers were loaded without following the pattern
- Smaller counties with dense political views SHOULD be the outliers.
- Larger counties with varied political views fell closer to the average.
-The pattern breaks when Large Counties reported 90%+ Biden. and Biden only, meaning single vote Biden. not straight democrat ticket.
- Many patterns were DECIMATED in this election. =FRAUD
Biden being the only dem voted on a ballot make all the sense in the world. Trump was reviled by many Republicans. They voted for Biden but kept the rest of their ballot Republican.
The rest of ballot was blank. It was only marked for Biden. Nobody else.
Say who? But regardless, broken patterns mean broken patterns. Could be fraud, could be something else. Some person (not you) in this discussion brought up 19 counties that have picked the presidential winner correctly for the last X years, etc....except this year of course. In his mind that is evidence of fraud. So, here is my question. How are the people in those counties able to always pick the winner? And more importantly, through what mechanism are they always guaranteed to pick the winner? That chicken-shit was willing to put that crap out there but unwilling to answer these two questions.
Single vote ballots are tracked in Michigan for sure. Look it up.
Those counties are very significant.
They don’t always vote the same.
There are typically 2 or 3 that stray and get it wrong.
The populations of those counties represent a strong statistical. correlation to the Electoral College of the United States.
It’s just a Very high Probability, like 98%, that without very significant change they vote how the electoral college votes. So they vote with “Swing states”.
Of course if the stars align and things could change. But this year way to many stars are aligning. Waaaaaaay to many.
If you want to ignore all the fishy numbers and eye witness accounts. Fine. You’re guy won so no o problem for you. Right?
But, if these numbers and happenings are real.
You had no say in this election. You’re vote did not count. You lost the constitutional right to vote. As did all other Americans. Which is very very bad in the long run for everyone.
Yet another person unwilling to answer my two questions. How do they do it? Why must the win streak never end? Others in this forum are offering this as proof of fraud. Are you? Regarding your question to me. As I've stated plenty of times in my various comments, if fraud did take place it should be prosecuted. In the meantime, I will watch our idiot president continue to berate the republican governor of Georgia, demanding that he "do things" that are outside the scope of his powers.
My view is that the lateness of most of these updates is a scandal in itself. Consider how hard Democrats worked to make the nation think it would be a natural occurrence that the big Democratic margins would get counted very late. Did anyone push Carville and the others to offer a data-based hypothesis for why that would be so? I know Wisconsin and the best hypothesis for why Milwaukee had a very major update at 3:42 AM (7h 42m after the polls closed and 20h 42m after the law authorizes counting to start) is that the Democrats that control Milwaukee wanted it that way. Seriously, Milwaukee had as well-staffed and equipped elections team per vote counted as those counties that were coming in with their results at 10 PM. 11:00 PM? Okay, I buy that. Midnight? Gut feels pretty funny, but possibly. 3:42 AM? Nope, ain't buying what they're trying to sell.
Some counties don't even start counting until the next day, but nobody usually notices because it's possible to call the result before then. Did you even see how long it took all the results to come in from New York?
If you had statistical analysis training, you would not be making this comment. These anomalies are glaring and need to be investigated and determined as to the cause.
The cause is the abnormal number of Trump poll watchers reporting legitimate Biden votes ad fraudulent.
This causes the vote cast to be held until it can be verified and counted by another group of poll workers. The poll watchers, particularly in these battleground states, did this at a very high rate while Democratic poll watchers continued to flag at a normal rate.
The secondary certification typically all get updated once a review session has completed, so if 1000 votes were flagged, all 1000 would be counted once the review for all was completed.
No. The point is that Republican poll watchers were not allowed to see hundreds of thousands of mail-in/absentee ballots in the early hours of Wednesday. Specifically, they were not allowed to verify outer envelopes, signatures, registration status, etc. Look at the videos online that show cardboard being put on windows of people trying to watch from the outside in both PA and MI.
The canvassing process simply reruns separated ballots or uploads the same voting files from flash drives or hard drives, which is why the vote tallies rarely change significantly. The main point is that once a mail-in/absentee ballot is separated from the envelope, there is no way to verify if it is a legal ballot.
That cardboard is from spectators, not official watchers. The official watchers are in the room with the people doing the actual counting.
If you are going to continue this "look at the cardboard video" narrative, it is clear to me that you are delusional.
The spectators in the room were limited or non-existent. The cardboard video is misinformation to convince you the right is crazy. Some on the right think that’s illegal. They are also confused.
It’s a misinformation campaign designed to confuse everyone while the real theft is more clever. Dig deeper.
Why would people outside of the room not be allowed to see in the room if everything is "transparent" as we have been told?
There are sworn affidavits from people who were there to be poll watchers that contradict your statements. They were there. You and I were not. In a democratic republic, shouldn't people willing to be prosecuted for lying under oath have an opportunity to be heard?
That is untrue. Republican and Democratic observers were in the Detroit vote counting center at all times. It was only on the morning after the election, when mail-in votes reported from Detroit began to be released, that Republicans rushed to the TCF center and demanded to watch the remaining votes be counted. There is a legal limit to the number of people allowed as observers. That limit had already been reached. Some Republican observers left the counting area and were replaced by other Republicans. Later, they attempted to re-enter the counting room, but as the legal maximum un]ber of both Democratic and Republican observers had already been reached, they were denied admittance. This claim - that Republicans were not permitted in the room to observe the vote count - has already been made in court and rejected.
Maybe so, maybe not. As I stated above, "there are sworn affidavits from people who were there to be poll watchers that contradict your statements. They were there. You and I were not. In a democratic republic, shouldn't people willing to be prosecuted for lying under oath have an opportunity to be heard?" So far, most of the judges have not let any evidence be presented.
The judge in Michigan read the affidavits, heard from all sides and rejected the claims as baseless. There's documented evidence that people who were not registered to be poll watchers were told to rush down to the TCF Center and demand to be allowed in. That's not allowed under Michigan state law. Are you saying that the laws should have been ignored?
Ummm...yeah it does. See mail in ballots come in via....the mail (or in boxes where they were deposited). But they all get mixed together as they come in over time - some for Trump and some for Biden, whatever the ratio between the two may be in certain area. So it is like shuffling a deck of cards between face cards and number cards - you get a more or less standardized distribution between the two sets. What this data indicates is that over 100,000 votes in each of these areas was deposited as a batch at the same time (as they all stayed together with no sorting) and that they were picked up together at the same time - not over a series of days as they came in and got mixed with Trump votes. THAT is what this shows - the improbability of that vote distribution in a standardized number set of supposedly randomly distributed values.
Couple that with the fact that 1) tens of thousands of these were ONLY marked for President and 100% of them were for Biden and 2) the difference between down ballot votes and the Presidential vote and - if you know anything about probability and statistics - this jumps off the page at you.
That is correct, you would have Trump votes still going up and Biden votes going up. more for Biden in the more populated areas but what you see in all the swing states is a huge spike for Biden and Trump is abnormally small, almost, not going up at all. Which is impossible when his votes from all ethnic groups are more for Trump, and more in all of history! The largest turn out in history too? Only in the key states that Biden needed too, is impossible. The chances of all the planets lining up and stars disappearing for 5-6 hours is a possibility too, but will it ever happen....No. Well, how do you know? Because it has never happened.
Vote by mail in most states was still done by district. You mailed your vote into your county or city ballot location. Or you dropped it off there. So mail in ballots will be no different than physical voting in that regard. The only difference was that there was a behavioral difference between Republican and Democratic voters when it came to mail in voting because the Republican nominees was telling Republicans to NOT vote by mail.
There is nothing unique about top of the ticket voters. They've existed in every election since 1788.
Except more. Mail-in ballots came in than went out. And Pennsylvania broke the law and the constitution. I know it’s a small thing when it comes to math. Trump won Florida and Ohio. Look up benford law.
You mistake DISTRIBUTION for total number of votes. There are still Trump votes...they would be mixed into the Biden votes over time in ANY distribution. It is third-world dictator stuff when you get 99 to 100% turnout and over 100% of registered voters and ALL of the votes are for one candidate. There is a HUGE difference in "top of the ticket" voters number a few thousand (in agreement with prior election percentages) and a huge lump of tens of thousands of such votes in a tranche, all together. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html
Are these urban area results inconsistent with other urban areas? Are they inconsistent with past results? You have no baseline so you have no way of knowing whether these results are anomalous or not. When the Democrats routinely get 85% of the black vote, it should surprise ANYONE that areas that are overwhelmingly black will be above the mean. It would be surprising if they weren't!
You are digging into voter data to see what you want without trying to get any context or understanding of past historical precedent. Hillary Clinton won Wayne county 66-29. Joe Biden won Wayne county 68-30. Hillary got a HIGHER percentage in Philadelphia than Biden.
Was it fraud that Biden won Manhattan 85-14?
When you look at specific counties and claim that our elections are similar to dictatorships, it suggests you don't understand how data distributions work.
flyerhawk wrote: "You are digging into voter data to see what you want without trying to get any context or understanding of past historical precedent."
Exactly. The correct method for evaluating said "voter spikes" is to assess said spikes at the county level.
The analysis is mostly independent of time. There's no time component in the scatter plot. The top explanation here is that those anomalies are heavily democrat cities. Ok. But does that explain the extreme ratios? Biden won those 4 cities 10:1, but not other big cities with similar demographics in other states? I think we would need an explanation of those ratios in those cities anyway. Compare to other states. Compare nationally. Compare historically. Compare demographics. Etc.
Also what about the Other to Trump ratio? How is that explained?
If this were an honest analysis, they would have done actual baseline testing using other states that weren't battleground states. They didn't do that. So there is no way to know if this is really anomalous or consistent across the board.
Oh, the ratio is actually 23.67:1 for the first anomaly - that would be Detroit according to the prevailing explanation in the comments section. Is that plausible?
Anyway apparently the author does compare to other states. So other populous, blue, diverse, vote-by-mail cities are indeed compared to. I guess you can still point out differences in vote counting and reporting, that would result in extremely different batch properties.
How wonderful it must be to be such an untroubled and simple person so as to be able to disagree with all contrary views as “garbage “- how nice it must be to live in such an undisturbed bubble!
So, when is reporting vote tallies in clumps problematic? This analysis shows nothing.
It’s called evidence
Where's the evidence retard?
I’m going to guess you’re single, long history of getting pumped and dumped (either that no one is into you), and you have daddy issues. Such a nasty woman you are.
I have no idea who you’re talking to but this is a really vile comment and a reflection of who you are. Maybe rethink that. You liberals are satanic. You really are.
Stop sipping the globalist kool-aid and do a little research with an open mind and it will be all over the place.
All over the place.
Clumps? You mean massive DUMPS. Someone entering ballots 3-5 times is fraud. Unauthorized personnel using a thumb drive that is also unauthorized is fraud period.
These are things that only happened in people's imagination.
Obviously, you know NOTHING about data analysis and computing. I've been in IT, computing, and data analysis for 20+ years, am an independent, and this clearly show's there were anomalies that are impossible to happen and cannot be explained away!
You've been in analysis for 20 years and you think anomalies are impossible?
If you actually read and understood the report the author takes into consideration the possibilities of varying report quantities from separate precincts to possibly explain the abnormalities. It turns out that the math says that for the precincts that have such wide variance from the norm, which also have the highest possible populations of Biden supporters, would have had to report 100% of their votes cast in one single data dump. That's just not how large precincts report on the progress of their vote counting.
Now if someone can show that those outlier precincts mentioned in this report did, in fact, report their hundreds of thousands of votes in a single data dump then it's possible, not probable, but possible it was a true count. But zero percent of large population precincts count and report their votes this way so it's highly unlikely. And if those large precincts didn't count and report that way then the math shows that that is HIGHLY SUSPITIOUS.
Science doesn't lie, and math is science.
Someone here pointed out that the source data used here is from a group called Edison Research (https://www.edisonresearch.com/election-polling/#two) which NYT used for their ongoing vote data. Note that this is separate from their exit polling data.
These counts are NOT raw, real time numbers from the machines. Batches reflect numbers pieced together by some analysts at Edison from various sources with rolling corrections (which is why there are over 600 entries with negative values in there).
That alone invalidates this entire analysis because the batches don't necessarily correspond to any meaningful unit.
This analysis is math, not science. The science part is using math to test hypotheses. That was not done here. The math was done to try and prove the author's point. When the data are treated from a scientific perspective, the "extremes" aren't that extreme at all. In any sampling study you're always going to get extremes at the high and the low ends, the big question is: how unlikely are the extremes? In this case, not unlikely at all. That's why the author didn't report P-values.
Well, no. See, he ran the math and that led to the conclusion. You can't know what the conclusion will be BEFORE you do the math - the test hypothesis IS the math. It either shows something or it doesn't (proving the null hypothesis). Probability and Statistics, and statistical analysis, is the basis of multiple disciplines of science, though most outside of hard sciences, forensic analysis, and economic/financial analysis don't use or understand it well (individually).
Science is using math correctly - that was not done here
Quick primer in scientific method: i) develop a hypothesis BEFORE doing the experiment: Here - extremes in vote tally updates cannot be explained by random variation (an indication of fraud); ii) do the experiment/analysis: analyze vote tally distributions and ask if outliers cannot be explained by random fluctuations; iii) examine results and ask if hypothesis is accepted or rejected. Extrapolating from the p-values reported in this study the hypothesis is almost certainly not supported - i.e. these outliers can reasonably be expected to occur by chance.
Quick review of statistical analysis and the scientific method. You have data. You run a series of statistical tests to see if there are anomalies - linear regression, normal distribution, inferential analysis, etc. If there are no anomalies, then there is no issue and the data is valid - it either is or is not. If there are anomalies then you look for the explanation, as you see the author has done here. THAT is when you have to make hypothesis about the CAUSE for the abnormalities, but the FACT THEY EXIST has been determined.
You hit the nail on the head, but - and a big BUT, the author did not test for anomalies, they tested for outliers. Yes, I totally see there are outliers, but are they anomalies? Unless you have access to the data, it's not possible to tell because the the critical analyses that should have been performed to test this were not presented. Very doubtful the OP doesn't know this and so one can only assume that they held back these data because the results did not support the main thesis. It appears you know something about statistics - are you not concerned about the lack of P values (or the inappropriate null hypothesis underlying the closest thing they got to a P-value?).
"zero percent of large populations precincts count and report their votes this way". You seem to be stating this as a fact. Please cite your sources. Also, it's spelled "suspicious".
Actually, the analysis is pretty sound with respect to identifying anomalous statistical behavior of the updates. But that doesn't mean there was fraud. The truly awful polling that occurred before the election shows us the limitations of trying to draw conclusions from data in a close election.
Correct. When. data scientist, working say in healthcare, discovers one Doctor billed Medicare 100K for gloves (to make up an example), he or she has discovered an outlier that may be interesting to the fraud team for further research. One doesn't prove fraud from math. You find areas of interest. Later prosecutors bring the Doctor into court and prove the fraud. I'm not convinced I care about today's data, but it was an interesting read. However, those who are arguing about whether math is science or whether math proves legal fraud - are literally saying nothing important at all. That's where the conversation falls off a cliff and people repeat their understandings of what words mean or where data analysis falls in the big picture.
problem is u have to make a decision! accept there was probably fraud. Trump wins. say fuck the evidence Biden is the winner. If Biden wins the evidence will be put in the bin with hunter's laptop and Tara Reade etc! on balance better to keep the current incumbent
The laptop story has been debunked lots of times. Also it's bizarre as hell.
Citation? Other than CNN.
You are clearly not from planet earth.
What the hell are u talking about????? What part of the laptop story was false? Nothing It was Hunter's he asked for it to be returned so did his solicitor. so everything on it was his the photos 99% not yet public show him with underage girls they refer to money to be paid to his father and people came forward to verify his dealings with China
It was all made up. Ask Bill Barr. Ask the FBI. Ask the blind shop owner.
ONLY A NUT JOB DEMOCRAT WOULD COME UP WITH THAT? ASK WHY DURING THE NIGHT. MOST CRIMES APPEAR UNDER THE COVER OF DARKNESS WITH NO OBSERVERS. THIS WAS FRAUD
You clearly have no idea what the above means. Educate yourself before you consider making claims of garbage you fucking moron.
It's garbage, you dickhead. So, counted results from mail-in ballots were reported in clumps, so the fuck what? How else are they going be be reported, in dribs and drabs? Jeez, some of you ass clowns are so fucking stupid.
We dont teuat retarded cocksuckers lime you. Cry some more salty tears despicable fuck
Absolutely true. And if people actually look at the data, there are tons of so-called anomalies where, until you look closely, the data makes it look like something unusual has happened. This poster had to look pretty deep, filter pretty tightly, and make up a few theories to create some anomalies... More blatant "anomalies" that would serve to help Trump, here:
* Trump winning counties where more voters than the entire 2010 population voted !
* Counties that has third world dictator like combos of vote %'s for Trump plus nearly every eligible citizen voting !
* Counties where Trump did better in absentee ballots than he did in his overall winning %.
https://davidmuncier.substack.com/p/state-department-criteria-for-corrupt
ps: BTW - all these results are explainable, but you have to want the credible explanation vs. the biased conclusion of fraud.
The election is best broken down in this statistical analysis presented in AZ testimony. Listen and see if you don't agree, or at least question your prior thinking. https://youtu.be/kU5tQDwjOF8
Yeah, sample your blue neighborhood and see if you find 96% Biden, you may in your home, but as you get further out and poll 147K, you find it much harder...
These aren't random samples.
Perhaps you would explain. Put your analysis side by side this one!
This is as good as it will ever get. There can be no other audit or proof of ballot stuffing simply because the system is designed to be unauditable. Ballots are generic untraceable pieces of paper, which once separated from their envelopes are unprovable as legal, illegal, real, or fake. The toothpaste cannot ever be put back into the tube and that is the whole point of the mail-in system. No ID, no verification, no chain of custody, no observers, no audit trail, no backup, no integrity, and therefore no court can ever find proof beyond a reasonable doubt. The only remedy for this is an auditable re-do of the vote in the questionable states.
Totally agree... a re-do with real security is called for.
Not in the constitution ..This whole election becomes fraudulent do to 6 states..It goes into a singe vote per state..Trump wins once it gets to this point.
Whatever, the security of our elections is what's at question.
Nor is winner take all EC. Try again?
Only if proven beyond a reasonable doubt. No critical thinking person implies we’re anywhere near there.
"Proven beyond a reasonable doubt" applies only to criminal cases. The presidents challenges are "civil litigation," the bar being met is "a preponderance of the evidence," to win the case.
Thanks for your clarification. That’s exactly why this is all complete horseshit. There is no evidence!
Proving you are not smart enough to understand the article
Your posts are horrid to read Ben. I’ve been scrolling through this chain for hours and you take the award for most unintelligent responses.
Says the animal fetishist.
But there were laws in place for mail in ballots ID check, signature verification, and a deadline to be received. Those laws were changed illegally and in some cases ignored altogether in WI and PA. In at least two states I know of WI, AZ a non profit by run by Mark Zuckerberg gave $400M to these and maybe other states with instructions to push mail-in voting. The money would be taken back if certain conditions weren't met. This is a violation of election law.
None of that is true. There were observers from both parties, if your state has voter ID laws, you had to provide a copy. Verification is done through signature match. Virtually impossible to forge. Mail in voting has .006 rate of fraud. The GOP had a chance to pass the #SafeAct. THREE TIMES! Let’s do the same for Senate races in Maine, Texas, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Hypocrisy much?
No there weren’t. GOP pol watchers were blocked in all these swing states in the urban areas where all the fraud occurred and caused the state to go blue. Signature matches weren’t done. Lots of witness testimony to that. They are refusing to audit that and not allowing Republicans to view the ballots. That illegal. Mail-in voting is not the same as absentee voting. Mail-in voting has a nearly 100% chance of fraud. I’m an actual mathematician/statistician. Tell me what’s your expertise or that moron your watching on the boob tube. You don’t illegally change election laws 90 days before an election because you’re conducting an honest election. We are looking at the entire country. But for now we have fraud to overturn.
The swing states in question have Republican controlled legislatures, and did NOT change election laws 90 days before election, unless Republicans did it. Swing states with universal mail-in voting, like Pennsylvania, passed the law over a year ago, again by Republican controlled legislatures. Some governors and election committees did try to change election rules but those have been blocked by courts, either not implemented or the votes affected by the blocked changes segregated, without affecting the election outcome.
The swing states are precisely the states that DID change election laws 90 days prior to the election ILLEGALLY through the executive and judiciary branches. Which is why it’s no surprise these same courts are striking down objections or efforts to correct the crime. You are correct that only the legislatures can change these laws and those legislatures are Republican controlled. They went around them. AGAIN ALL THE SWING STATES HAD ELECTION LAWS CHANGED ILLEGALLY. The PA Supreme Court threw out the case on the most absurd basis, that the time had passed (1 year) to remedy it. If they had brought it up at the time, the court would have ruled no standing (injury). SCOTUS will reverse and these judges should be impeached. Maybe get all the information first.
Just who are, and how many are there of these signature matchers, and what are their qualifications (i.e., handwriting experts)? Only a fool would believe millions of signatures could be verified in such a short period of time. That is the fallacy of the low fraud rate you mention for the mail-in ballots.
It's like fingerprint verification or facial recognition. The threshold on the number of points that have to agree can be set at strict scrutiny or at no scrutiny.
Much of the signature matching is conducted by optical scanners. Witnesses have signed affidavits stating that election officials in the four states in question all turned the sensitivity settings of the matching algorthyms way down. That means, in effect, while the signatures were "checked" almost any scribble could pass. The result is that rejection rates in those states were around 0.1% for this election, while histporically they have been between 2%-2.5%. These officials knew the mass mail in voting was designed for fraud, and opened the gates to maximize it. This cheat all by itself gave Biden the election.
There is absolutely no way Joe Biden won. He barely left his basement and when he did, he was incoherent. They talk about Trump being an embarrassment, how can Biden lead this country? For the first time in my 59 years, I'm ashamed of my country.
I'm from Sweden and while I think Trump was damaged by the COVID (I'm not saying he did anything wrong) I did still think he'd win considering how weak and bleak Bidens campaign looked, at least to someone outside the states. Biden offered very little concrete politics, it just sounded like a lot of mumbling and hedging the bets as opposed to Trump who genuinely seemed entthusiastic and optimistc about jobs, energy independence and yes even COVID. It was surprising.
I agree with you. But I have lived in the USA long enough to tell you that the political corruption is overwhelmingly terrifying. Specially with what the Clintons and what OBAMA DID.I woke up when the F.B.I ended up deliberately setting up Mr. POTUS, gral. FLYNN etc... I suspected from the begining, I couln not believe it because it was taking place in the US. I was born in Colombia, druglords land, terrorists groups, corrupt GA office organized crime, kidnapping as a way of life...you name it. This helped me noticed behaviors in the US by politicians that were a red flag.SPeaking different fireign languages, heloed me realized how the strem media and news were translated without accuracy. Realuzed the bug world wide media manipulators, then how latin countries are mislead and made HATE certain politicians as a result of the inutial manipulation. DISGUSTING.
All along the major law enforcement agencygot caught making up 17 fake crimes against the US PRESIDENT to disappear him through the FISA courts by lying and persuading judges.... she retired 3 mis. earlier ..... anyways... considering the chinese virus and what GEORGE SOROS has through his ONG's destabilizing countries I can tell you, TRUMP WON, there was a massive fraud, even statisticians abroad are saying the same.
BIDEN has dementia, well known. He was used and IF he remains as new elected president he will be removed by his own people by using one of thethe 4 options in Article 25.
The media and corrupt WA DC Deep State, have gone to extremes to remove and soon hurt the President of the USA. Remember what happened to ex president Reagan?
I am extremely sorry the USA got so corrupt and their people INDIFERENT. All the violence and marches, torching of properties, businesses, destruction of statues, aggresion, vulgarity was planned. Bad people infiltrated and they only person who seem to be concern for that 4th country behaviour is their president, some politicians while the supposedly ''democrats'' mayors are extremely permissible ordereing the police to do NOTHING!
Pityful what their own people are doing to the USA. Once this First worldwide Biological warfare is over, the economy destabilized, reduction of the population, job scarcity, weak armed forces and medical body we, all (worldwide) are going to be manipulated and obligated to get a SHOT, VACCINE, to hurt humans DNA and their health to weaken each country labor force and be easier target of dictatorships.
What happened in Venezuela
is spreading in some Latin American countries, Africa etc
One of the worstbpeople on earth is GEORGE SOROS.
America in hands of TRUMP a second term, may survive. But I am afraid deep state and fake media will meka people sovangry that a JON DOE WACO may kill ..... And that may be thevend of what once was a nice country with a very unique, special Constitution and Amendments. May GOD BLESS MR TRUMP AND THE USA!
Now that you’re done with your delusional rant, would you like to comment on the fact that the GOP didn’t even have a platform for the 2020 election?
What part of Keep America Great went over your head?
Do you know what a political platform is?
Yeah, it's 180 pages of garbage talking about how to keep America under the big toe of China.
Platform like the 2020 RNC logo?? draws mixed reviews from Charlotte residents / WCNC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY0BJD46r4MDeath 2 America used as the DNC logo this year?
I asked about a GOP platform and you replied with a YouTube link? Cmon now man.
DNC* logo
Well said ! Trump = Truth , Biden = Bullshit
Very well said!
If your for Trump you aint black..Or how bout the 80 year old man he wants to arm wrestle with...Cant form a sentence and cant much read off a TelePrompter...Brings a VP in over skin color not actual experience..Lives in basement...No crowds at any rally's he did .... Trumps huge rally's over whelming...Threatens other country's with billion dollar deals.
Son is caught in a huge pay to play scam....Was suppose to be 3 debates but he only shows up for two...The list goes on an on...Hillary tells Biden not to concede no matter what .... no one says a word..Te media is obvious bias...The Scotus is also bias...Your watching the destruction of freedom in real time..and this will have a WORLD effect on everyone...No one will come to the rescue no matter what their country does to them.
Any connection you have to reality is “obviously “purely coincidental. Even if any of that were true, it pales in comparison to the actions of GOP legislators and the rapist squatting in the White House. wanna Milligan?
You're basically illiterate, aren't you?
Supreme court is biased really? 6-3 conservative majority and 3 Trump apointees, and they are biased for liberals i assume you would say? In that case maybe truth does sometimes have a liberal bias, because justices must serve the truth and the constitution before party.
So very true
This article carefully analyzes 9000 dumps of data. The best the people trying to discredit can do is try to claim that 'big cities' lean Biden and therefore these anomalies don't indicate a real issue. But this is the data. It does create a scatter plot that shows a relationship. And when you look at the most abnormal data points out of 9000, you find 4 massive dumps, in the middle of the night with extreme ratios for Biden. Ohio has many large cities, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, Akron, Canton, Hamilton. None of those behaving abnormally. The same for Texas, Florida, ..and pick your State....it's not simply the size of the data being from a Biden friendly city...these specific critical places performed at a mathematical extremity that Biden required to win.
But there are much bigger issues. As you pointed out, Mr. Biden was a recycled failed candidate with no enthusiasm at all. In only the critical swing states do we find Mail in Ballots with an extraordinary low rate of rejections. This is not even discussed in this article. But Mail in being the least secure form of voting, is normally allowed a higher level of scrutiny, where an observer can verify that it appears the Ballot envelope was signed by the registered voter. Yet, in the very areas where the giant dumps for Biden occur, we find them shutting down the voting centers, preventing observers and dumping these huge Biden counts. In Pa. where we would expect a 3-5% rejection rate of Mail in, we find 0.3%, in Ga. only .25%
So suddenly the confluence of Odd datasets and critical swing states with Democrats controlling the counting and denying Republican Observers further suggests something amiss.
But it goes even further. Ohio, since it does have large urban areas as well as suburbs and farms is a classic Bellwether. It had no odd behaving data sets, Trump won it easily, as he did Iowa, another Bellwether. Trump won Congressional races, held the Senate (which they expected to lose), and State Legislatures. Again, from a statistical point of view, Trump seemed like a record setting candidate.
Only those massive Data dumps in those critical Swing areas in the middle of the night seem to have given Biden the electoral college.
And I've not even touched on Mr. Biden's supposed performance in Black Voting districts in the Swing areas relative to 1. the history of White Democrat Candidates never generating more than 59% black turnout and 2. how that history seemed to hold true in all those big cities in Ohio, and in other non-swing states areas.
Again, we come back to Mr. Biden's remarkable good fortune of having statistically improbable results sets in the specific places he needed to have them occur in the middle of the night with no one watching.
You’re very stupid and should stay out of American politics. The Republican Party *literally didn’t have a platform* for the 2020 race. Democrats, of course, had a comprehensive and progressive one based on evidence. But as usual, Dems get trashed for being an actual political party while Republicans get away with grifting instead of helping anyone. Jesus.
The DemocRAT platform consisted of: Higher taxes, wiping out small business, locking everyone in their homes, driving the cost of gasoline to $10/gallon, throwing open the borders to terrorists and freeloaders - in short, "Make America DEAD again."
"The DemocRAT platform consisted of: Higher taxes, wiping out small business, locking everyone in their homes, driving the cost of gasoline to $10/gallon, throwing open the borders to terrorists and freeloaders - in short, "Make America DEAD again.""
Yet, Trump still lost! Ha, ha, ha!
And yet the GOP couldn’t even put together a platform at all. And they still lose. Really shows how deluded you are. Enjoy.
so you still voted for a party that has a trash platform? lol you americans are just a bunch of deluded idiots. at least do us a favour and tell biden to continue the trade war and pressure against china, rally the ASEAN allies you left behind under Obama, and pull out american troops from wars. if you do all that, maybe the rest of the world can take the dying west seriously
The trade war literally fucked over *American* farmers. Please describe ANYTHING Trump did other than tariffs with respect to China? Literally nothing. He did nothing. He got a Phase One trade deal that China didn’t even abide by. How are you possibly this deluded? By the way Trump dropped more bombs than Obama and Bush combined. Enjoy your narrative you fucking idiot.
Dems ? lol... A Communist wannabe, lets try something that have never ever worked in any country as since time started, but this time, this time it will be different, because all democrats are pristine, and even their farts smell like flower, and no one ever have to work again, unless they want to. no one ever have to pay any taxes, but lets give everyone $1000 a week in spending money...
What was the Dems comprehensive platform. Be more specific please.
Google it you dumbass. The fact is the GOP had no platform and the Dems had one. It’s my opinion that it’s a good platform, you don’t need to agree. Why can’t you admit that a political party should have a platform? If Dems didnt have one you’d be all over it. But guess what you’re a hypocrite like all the conservitards. Sheep.
Seek Help! Typical libitard. No evidence of logical reason. Actions speak louder tha Propaganda. It not your fault that you do not have wisdom, and without, you do not know your a fool. Keep up the name calling, Liberals are pro's at it.
Biden's platform was spelled out on his campaign website with detailed plans on more than 40 issues.
"concrete politics" aka proposed National policy can not be communicated in 30 second sound bites. That's one reason trump lost, all rhetoric, just single word claims and nothing substantial. He shoots from the hip, he's never proposed or followed an actual plan. Even his loyal inner circle says from one day to the next trump kept changing his mind.
Trump's response to Covid-19 was seen as horrible in many countries. Maybe not in Sweden - horses for courses.
I admit I had fears Biden might not be charismatic enough. But his policies were sound. He placed much emphasis on following scientific advice again. For the most part, he tried to not go to Trump's ad hominem level (the first debate being the exception, but that was a mess anyway). And he's not as controversial as Bernie Sanders, whose self-description as "socialist" puts a lot of Americans off (even if his idea of socialism is closer to Social Democrats in many countries).
A friend posted links to the programs of Trump and Biden and there was about 100x more information on the Dem's policies. Trump's site consisted of little else than sloganeering and "hard man" statements.
Centrist politics isnt bad politics yes its boring uninspiring and difficult to garner votes under normal circumstances. But the COVID situation plus Trumps bombastic tweeting habits made enough people long for a return to 'normal', boring politics i suspect. The media twisting and taking out of context much of Trump's words certainly played a role
The media was soft as hell on Trump. What did they twist out of context? He’s a fucking dolt.
Tell you mom, its time to step out of your nest, you 40? and still, live at home?
learn the basics again, 1+1=2 , 2+2=4 . and its not a social construct.
Spiderman is not real.
money doesn't magically appear.
China wants you bad - and don't care about the world/globe
Biden Dement
Hillary Crook
Hot = burn a finger
Psycosis=meditate don't work
Get to your GP, get some pills , chill out, read a book, a normal book... not cartoons... get normal..
If the media is so tough on Trump, then let me ask you, did you ever hear about the fact that Trump didn’t even have a platform for the election? Probably not, because they’re incredibly easy on him since he lies at such scale they simply gave up calling him out on it. Come join us in reality. Stop the grift.
The platform was more of the same from his first term: Strong economy, tough on unfair trade, lock out criminal invaders, keep America's energy independence, America FIRST.
Joe had a platform too: Higher taxes, a country-destroying "green new deal", eliminating energy independence, locking down the Country until all small businesses fail, confiscate firearms (thereby starting a civil war).
Why can’t you just admit not having a platform is ridiculous? Biden doesn’t support the GND and you just sound like a hyperbolic biased idiot.
Actually, Joe Biden did in fact win. He won the popular vote by >6 million and also won 306 electoral college votes. Get over it.
You are insane Martin. Biden didn’t win anything and neither did Hillary. Wonder why Democrats aren’t insisting on audits of red states? Fraud all over.
Actually Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by >3 million. And that was WITH republican cheating. Biden won despite republican cheating. Diaper Don thought the fix was in which is why he is going insane right now. We voted in numbers that overcame republican cheating. If you want to see fraud, look at the tossup house and senate races that republicans won this year. McConnell won re-election with a 14% approval rating? Lindsey Graham won? Yeah, right.
McConnell’s approval rating is national. The nation doesn’t vote for McConnell. What was grandma Nancy’s approval rate again, halfwit? You leftists are incapable of math or logic, it’s why you’re leftists.
https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/article214226584.html
Ok fine. 34% in Kentucky. 52% unfavorable in Kentucky. Yet he won again. Yeah right!
If you count libertarians, more people voted against Hillary than voted for her. Unless you’re silly enough to think libertarians would vote for Hillary. We don’t have a popular vote in the US. Get over it.
Now now. Don't get nasty just because I made you look foolish.
How do you explain 27 races in congress viewed as "toss ups" and the Republicans won all 27 races and we're supposed to believe these ballots had Biden for their president?? You know it's bullshit, everyone knows it's bullshit, and on January 20th we aren't going to see this fraudulent bullshit determine the leader of the free world.
No she didn’t. All those 3M votes came from LA county. There was massive fraud in 2016 as well.
LA County cast 2.6 millions ballots in 2016 and 3 million in 2020.
LA County was 3.6M in 2016 and 3.4M in 2020. 1.5M illegal voters taken off the rolls after 2016. That’s their count. So fraud. The other 1.5M off another blue urban area. I can’t remember anymore. All these blue urban areas are corrupt and overrun with voter fraud, with only sham elections.
LOL. You're an idiot.
That’s the mirror Martin
Someone lifts your wallet, takes your cash. You demand it back saying he stole it. He says it's his and tells you to get over it. You'd be okay with that? Didn't think so.
America was stolen over a 100 years ago via the Federal Reserve. If this is the first time you're ashamed by your country, you have been in a dreamland for far too long.
As an economist I have no idea what “America was stolen over a [sic] 100 years ago via the Federal Reserve” means. However, even if I stipulate that assertion is correct, it’s a non sequitor to the issue at hand — which means the author knows this is analysis is valid, but does t want to accept it
Being stolen? They are trying to turn this into a communist country. The federal reserve won’t matter after that!
Do you work for the media? He didn't say this was the first time he was disappointed with the country. YOU made that up. Now why would you do such a thing?
He used the word “ashamed“. Yes Yes that’s what he said in the last sentence. Reading comprehension much?
Rebecca.... your divorce papers must be filled out. You and reality are no longer together.
He’s a poor choice at best. That being said, magnitudes better than a career lying , money laundering, thieving, treasonous rapist. 59? He should’ve been embarrassed tens of thousands of times by now. Dumb fuck
Votes count, not cult worship attendance or flags & red caps.
You must have limited yourself to just one source of info., since only trump claimed Biden was in his basement.
trump lost the popular vote in 2016, our Nation has become even more sharply divided since. This election could have gone either way. There is no logical reason anyone who was paying attention should be surprised that trump lost again inn 2020.
In my 59 years, I've never been prouder of this Nation! We've had a black POTUS, a huge minority voter turn out, a woman VP-elect, and We The People prevented an attempted fascist takeover!
I feel you!
There is no denying the oddity of this election. It goes well beyond direct statistical analysis. It is extremely atypical when compared to past presidential races...abnormalities including the amount of single race voting, 18 of 19 bell weather counties fail to make the correct pick, overall republican success when the republican incumbent president appears to be losing. It goes on and on. Those are facts. Does that prove that Biden is a fraud? No. But combine: 1) historical anomalies, 2) statistical anomalies, 3) the rush by the left -media/party to confirm Biden, 4) refusal of the media to consider any alternative to a Biden presidency, 5) past statements by dems questioning election security/mail in ballots, 6) unanswered questions about Dominion Voting, 7) direct testimony from hundreds of poll workers of instances of questionable activity and, 8) five years of unrelenting hate, badgering and vicious anger against President Trump... and then ask WHY SOME OF US QUESTION THE SUPPOSED RESULTS.
I notice that when people enumerate the oddities of this election, they totally ignore the huge difference between polls and actual results, particularly in swing states that Trump needed to win. There was a poll in WI in the last week before the election that had Biden up by 17 points. And he barely wins the state. So who is more likely to be committing fraud?
Unfortunately, though, the worst fraud is legal: the electoral college. That there could be any remote question of who won the election when Biden had six million more popular votes is just sick, sick, sick. I'm so tired of people in a few swing states holding the rest of the country hostage.
"I'm so tired of people in a few swing states holding the rest of the country hostage."
The last president to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote before Bush in 2000 was Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and only 5 presidents in history have had this same outcome. There have been 33 elections since 1888 and only 2 have won the electoral college without winning the popular vote: Bush (already mentioned) and Trump in 2016.
So 94% of elections since 1988 have had the winner of the popular vote win the electoral college. I would say that's a pretty far cry from "people in a few swing states holding the rest of the country hostage," even if those two have occurred in the last 2 decades.
The Founders studied democracies throughout history and found that mob rule was the result as direct popular vote often led to tyranny. This is the exact reason why we have the electoral college. Without it, New York City, Chicago, Los Angelas, Houston, and a handful of other cities would hold the rest of the country hostage pretty much all the time.
The electoral college isn't fraud. It's actually, when understood the way it was intended, a safeguard against tyranny so that we don't have 51% of the population constantly dictating what 49% of the population can and can't do and what is right and wrong in a society. Just because something is popular among the majority of people doesn't make it right. The electoral college helps to protect that, but the way our entire government is set up is supposed to have safeguards all over the place. Sadly, the Constitution is more of a suggestion in the minds of many Rs and Ds in Washington so it isn't always followed.
Actually, Bill Clinton only got 43% of the popular vote in 1992: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election
Wilson, Lincoln, and Quincy Adams received less than Clinton when it comes to the percentage of the popular vote (Q Adams received 30.92%). In fact, 19 presidents have received less than 50% of the popular vote.
I'm confused at why this is relevant? He still won the popular vote and the electoral college. He isn't the only one who received less than 50% of the popular vote.
As far as the comment I made regarding 51%/49%, the context is talking about why we aren't a direct democracy. It wasn't relating to popular vote in our presidential elections.
So its ok for POTUS candidates to focus on 13 specific states to win the election and that isnt broken?
Would you rather them focus on specific states or about 6 specific cities? I think it's unrealistic to assume a candidate can visit all 50 states and campaign in both rural and urban areas in the limited amount of time he/she has before an election. But without the electoral college, you would see POTUS candidates focus on NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, and a handful of other cities because he/she would know that the populous cities is what he/she would need to win. And because swing states do vary, it causes candidates to have to choose which whole states (not just cities) would be most strategic for him/her to visit.
Polls cannot be trusted.
As far as the issue of polls, there were independent pollsters warning the MSM polls for weeks that their data was wrong, but they were laughed at and criticized. And it was these independent pollsters who were right. So your question, "So who is more likely to be committing fraud?" is based off the assumption that the MSM polls were right. They were wrong in 2016 and they were wrong in 2020. One would hope they would fix their methods/metrics, but that remains to be seen. They didn't fix them from 2016 to 2020.
We can't use polls (which can easily be bias) to determine whether someone is committing fraud. We use data analysis, which is what is happening. The statistical anomalies are overwhelmingly benefiting Biden. There are also tons of irregularities that have been the norm for decades that at least should make us pause a bit. It could just be a random election cycle. But combined with statistical analysis, it's definitely throwing up red flags. And it should. If this was the other way around, we know the media would be in an outrage and demanding investigations, as they should.
The polls were all wrong again. Pretty much everyone agrees on that. They either poll more Democrats, use incorrect party affiliation percentages, or skew the percentage of the assumed vote. It's done intentionally to discourage supporters from voting as well as the candidate from thinking he can win.
maybe because actual data trumps polls (no pun intended) and the fact that polls even the best of them are hipshots. But its obvious from your ignorant comments throughout this blog that common sense logic means nothing to morons like you.
If you have evidence of voter fraud, then bring it on. The issues you cite are a reflection of your biases, not objective analysis. Do you even know what Dominion voting machines do, or how they work?
The facts he cites are just facts. Many are literally impossible. 2 + 2 = 5 situation.
If the population were 4 people he would say that doesn't make sense, and you would yell at him to prove that 2+2 does not = 5. Because you are sure it could maybe, if we hate Trump enough, 2+2 could be 5. but it cant. Literally impossible. Same as the results of this election.
PA sent out 1.8 million mail-in ballots and recorded they received 1.4 million back. However the final count for mail-in ballots was 2.5 million. Worth looking into maybe? Similar issues in MI, WI, GA, AZ, NV.
PA sent out over 3 million ballots, which is easily verifiable with 5 minutes and Google.
Smoke much weed?
https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/pennsylvanians-urged-to-hand-deliver-mail-ballots-immediately/
There were over 1.8 million sent to just Democrats.
Debunked.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q307
Right on!
3) and 4) dont make much sense. What are they (media) supposed to do? The number points to a Biden win, and historically the elections were called based on those preliminary numbers long before the electoral vote, so they did the same thing for this election. That Trump and supporters have doubts shouldn't prevent the media from calling the election, unless the media share those same doubts (some do, others dont), or unless courts award the election win to Trump. That the left media report based on their version of events (and right media doing the same) isnt evidence of a conspiracy. Otherwise you make a good argument. But remember burder of proof is with the accuser/plaintiff. Doubt is just too easy to manufacture (remember the Russia thingy) which is why we should always ask for proof
Exactly. It was the media who manufactured, and hyped the doubt in the Russia thingy, when all facts and common sense indicated to the contrary. Had the media exposed the Russia thingy to even the slightest ctitical scrutiny there would have been no Russia thingy. Not to mention there would now be numerous conspirators rotting in prison for the rest of their lives, as they should be - including members of the media who the facts have demonstrated were among those conspirators participating in an attempted soft coup against a duly elected president. The point is that the media once again are ignoring what all facts and common sense are screaming, and this is an indicator of something smelly afoot.
The Russian "thingy" was very real. If you don't think so, ask all the people who went to jail.
Please let me know a single person who went to jail for anything having to do with Russian "collusion" with the Trump campaign. Every case brought was for unrealted matters, by an FBI cabal using the power and resources of the Federal Government to squeeze innocent people (except Manafort, who had legitimate tax issues, but unrelated to anything Trump) for politcal purposes, hoping to shake people down for dirt, any dirt, true or fabricated against the President. THAT is actually a crime. In fact, I'll be happy if you can quote a single sentence from the 2.5 year Mueller investigation - staffed entirely by partisan Democrats - confirming a single instance even close to Russian "collusion". You don't hve to answer right away, you can wait until after the $75 million lawsuit Carter Page just filed against the FBI, Comey and his cohorts is resolved.
They went to jail over process issues - not for colluding with Russia. Good grief.
Real...bologna haha.....4 years of 'investigation' turned up NOTHING....hahaha eat it!
I don't think they got your joke.
Numbers dont add up folks. How about a place that experienced 200% in voting. More people voted than the number of registered voters. A five year old can understand what it means. For God sake, just redo this election. It takes few weeks but there is no other choice. People have to manage to show up in person this time,
The Constitution details how this must be settled, including deadlines along the way. A new election cannot be completed by the deadlines. Rather, the evidence of impossible results, together with witness testimony and other evidence of fraud/illegality, must result in SCOTUS declaring key state vote certifications invalid, preventing an Electoral College majority, and leaving the final vote to the House of Reps, by state delegation, where Trump should win.
So, let an unqualified, extremist, highly political stacked court override the will of the people?Um..... aren’t you guys the party up “no court legislators“?
Hypocrite much. Oh BTW there is no evidence of any of that manure you’re slinging.
Extremists like Sotomayor who think the Bill of Rights need be retired
Read the constitution Ben
Please, how many times have state and federal judges have overturned the will of the people? A zillion--maybe more?
By “conservative” “Strict constitutionalist” types, mostly. Not qualified to be a clerk for Judge Judy
Yea, meanwhile leftist shill Obama judges refuse to convict Dems caught massively breaking the law and think the bill of rights is toilet paper. The only right you commies care about is the “right” to murder unborn babies.
And that’s justification to do it again? Christ we should’ve burned everything to the ground in 2000 when the court stole that election.
Burning things to the ground is all you commies ever do. Lord knows you halfwits are incapable of building something.
You’re proposing letting completely unqualified, mostly right wing nut jobs, in heavily gerrymandered states to overturn the results of an election where there is no hard evidence of fraud. Not what the framers had in mind. I assure you.
2000 ballots of “indefinitely confined” people all signed MLW in Wisconsin. There’s hard evidence, halfwit.
Mail in ballots have a fraud rate of .006%. By far, the most full proof and secure way to vote in the entire country. We don’t have access to any of the coding software by any voting machine manufacturing company.
secondly, no one should have to risk their health and life over casting a ballot. Especially when they are not hand mark, hand counted, paper ballots.
Leave this to the adults
0.006% citation needed, halfwit.
Says the dude who liked an uncited comemnt about "200% turnout" lmao
It OnLy NeEdS tO bE cItEd If I dIsAgReE wItH iT
Ben Dover you are assuming that the correct processes are followed. The assessors couldn't even do a process audit in PA. They were too far from the action. Yes, the voting machines are design to commit fraud, and were used that way. That is why they were bought!
Bought under... rules decided by Republicans?
The 200% turnout is fake news that was already debunked. They weren't the county's official figures, it was literallly just something that some blog said.
No, America should not "just redo" the election based on a bunch of Internet misinformation. You're suggesting, without any evidence to justify it, that the election should be held again, but without absentee voting.
If you held the election again, but without absentee voting, you're not actually holding the election again. You're holding a new election under different rules - rules that makes it more difficult for some people to vote. That, my friend, is called voter suppression. Changing the rules so that people who you don't like find it more difficult to vote is the very definition of voter suppression.
Like most things that autocrats do, voter suppression is usually completely legal, but always immoral.
Cheating and intentionally steal, manufacture ballots should disqualify a candidate. He deserves a orange suit, free food, health care behind bars
I completely agree. Let’s legislate every vote in America be cast on a hand marked, hand counted, paper ballot. Then, forensically analyze every code of software of all voting machines. The GOP Senators would have to vote from Leavenworth.
You commies would never crawl out of mom’s basement to vote.
Hand marked, hand counted paper ballots can be mailed...
That is 100% absolute bullshit from a registered certified purebred Angus. Give me one legitimate source to anything you just commented on. That is 100% absolute bullshit from a registered certified purebred Angus. Give me one legitimate source to anything you just commented on. There will be snowballs in Hell first
Yep you in fact are headed there, do not pass go!
Got any relevant political issue or policy discussion? Or just your dumb fuck trying to be witty white trash come backs?
I am an engineer, i understand this white paper, many people won't. Fortunately, it does not take a mathematical mind to know our election was stolen. It is quite obvious to anyone due to the outlandish, systematic cheating on display right out in the open.
The bigger question is what are we going to do about it when the tiny number of people who actually get to have a say about it do nothing?
The founding fathers in their great wisdom gave us one final check on an illegitimate government and lawless people.
And what was that? Let’s get busy on the #OngoingCriminalEnterprise And what was that? Let’s get busy on the #OngoingCriminalEnterprise that is the GOP!
I was a telecommunications traffic engineer for ten years. These kinds of data anomalies are ALWAYS suspicious. Early in my career I was able to find $18,000,000.00 in misrouted telephone calls. There is a thing called least cost routing and when the expensive circuits are pounded while the cheap circuits sit idle, that is a clue that either the calls are being misrouted or the switch-site technicians have busied out the circuits. I wrote up an estimate of the damage that was being done and it ended up in the in-boxes of the Board of Directors of the parent company. I did not send it there. I just wanted it all cleaned up and I raised a fuss and was persistent. Over and over in my career I reviewed statistical anomalies and they always pointed to something that was not right. My data sniffing sense tells me that this election was rigged. I would bet my reputation on it.
Have you looked at the red-shift (election results variance from polls that favor republicans), that has been occurring since inception of electronic voting? Particularly noticeable in 2016 and 2020.
It is sad to see so many comments trying to dissuade people from listening to the data. Numbers do not lie. They might not say what you want them to, but they do not lie.
And any truly educated person with any experience interpreting statistical analysis knows this is black and white proof of fraud, no matter how many posts try to say otherwise. Numbers do not lie. You are caught.
The only argument that keeps coming up to try to dismiss is the one about large cities like Detroit or Philadelphia with higher populations than surrounding counties being reported to cause a vertical line that happens nowhere else on the curve but you have one huge flaw. These are the 1,2,4, and 7th largest anomalies in the nation. These are nowhere near the same size voting populations and do not behave like other “Blue” cities like NYC, Chicago, or LA. Your wishing it away does not actually wish the data away.
Serv US, I don't think that it's "black and white." The authors have done a great job in showing how to use time series data to detect *anomalies* in 2020 election data. That might or might not be a telltale for fraud -- each suspicious case has to be examined separately.
Anomaly 1 looks like the result of the City of Detroit directly reporting most of its absentee ballot count to the State. Detroit skews D, and absentees skew D.
Anomaly 2 looks like the result of the very-D County of Milwaukee reporting some of its absentee ballot count to the State.
Read through the comments for details (unfortunately you have to wade though a lot of nonsense and invective).
I don't know about Anomalies 3 or 4.
Of course, there are lots of flavors of fraud, and only some will show up as time-series anomalies. The above explanations of Anomalies 1 and 2 don't prove "absence of any fraud" any more than an outlier can "prove guilt." Importantly, this approach will spotlight instances of potential large-scale fraud and, when it exists, help to characterize it. Ballot box stuffing, graveyard voting, phony precinct reporting, and manipulation of voting machine USB sticks should each look different.
It's obvious to me that more transparency is needed if the elections systems are to earn the trust of informed citizens. Why doesn't every state have clear chains of custody and audits? And promptly publish precinct-level results? More and better data would make innovative approaches like the authors' more powerful, enhancing their use in spotlighting bad practices and serving as a deterrent to misconduct.
Numbers do not lie, but your interpretation of these numbers is flawed, because you incorrectly are expecting uniformity.
Counties don't all report their unofficial results in the same way. There's no requirement on them to, and they don't try to. Some of them do it in a more real-time fashion than others. Just because a pile of ballots goes through a counting machine at the same time, that doesn't mean they'll all be added to the tally at the same time - because some will need to be adjudicated.
Real-time reporting of partial counts is not a requirement for election integrity.
Well put. It's shocking how many people here don't understand this fundamental aspect of the election process.
The author makes clear that uniformity isn’t an expectation. I am very fluent in his mathematical tools and I don’t find a requirement for or expectation of uniformity. The author specifically talks about possible sources of non-uniformity that could explain the anomalies, and then dispels them. What do think of his discussion on the possible sources of non-uniformity?
He's assuming that the only possible sources of non-uniformity are ballot type (i.e. mail-in vs in-person) and geography. Those are definitely not the only sources of non-uniformity. Ballots that are adjudicated or transcribed might be reported separately, or later. There are differences in the way that different counties report their unofficial results, and how close the time they are reported is to the time they are actually counted.
It's not just a non-uniform distribution of voters, there isn't a uniformity of process between counties in reporting unofficial results.
Yes, you’re right, I don’t recall that he made mention of tally methods. This area may have the potential to explain the results, and IMHO needs to be understood.
At the end of the day, unofficial results are just that - unofficial. The processes for ensuring election integrity align with the official certification of the results, not with the unofficial running totals. Hence the differences between how different counties report the unofficial results. Unofficial results only really need to be good enough for the media to call the winner of a race correctly, that's really the only purpose unofficial results serve. They aren't intended to be a real-time report of the vote counting process. Some counties leave vote totals from whole precincts unreported for days.
Any "truly educated person" who has taken a single statistics class knows that you can't take principles that apply to random sampling and try to shoehorn them into explaining votes in a very heated election.
Comparing 2020 numbers to 2016 numbers and trying to use that as "proof" doesn't work because none of the factors are the same. I myself vote republican usually - voted trump in 2016 - and voted against him after the embarrassment that has been the last 4 years. I still voted republican for several other positions.
The amount of people who are trying to talk out their ass about statistics is too damn high here.
Right the embarrassment of a booming economy, bigger tax breaks, better foreign trade deals abroad, establishing energy independence and strengthening or military while simultaneously getting our troops home and promoting peace deals in the middle east. Trump puts America and it's working class first. You're either some globalist RINO who has betrayed this country or just a lying libtard (communist globalist trash as well just acting differently in society.) So which is it?
This comment perfectly encapsulates what a Trumpist is. The working class are Trump's mark. We live in a globalist world, obviously. The other super-powers are perfectly happy to leave the US in the dust. You need the global market more than it needs you. 2021 will mark the dawn of a new order.
You treasonous globalists should stop trying to destroy and sabotage our country then I'm sure Schaub would let you lick his boots up at Davos if you assholes don't like Trumps military or economy then get the fuck out. You know what's funny?? You know how you loathe and look down on "trumpists" like neophyte scum? If these godless globalists succeed in creating their evil empire they will look down on you the way you look down on me but where we differ is I'll go down fighting evil and standing up for what i believe in whereas a spineless hateful coward like yourself you'll live on your knees and get the karma your arrogance has earned.
Your incredibly hateful language shows just how far the US have come since the days when John McCain stopped a woman lying about Barack Obama.
Here's what Trump did that was so good for the economy this year. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21366624/trump-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-failure
Vox? Next time just use a CNN link..
You are so full of anger and hate. Please remember we're all neighbors in God's eyes.
Isn't it easier for you to go to one of countries that share your beliefs.
The fact that what is.being described as an anomaly appears to be normal distribution in Detroit for past 3 elections would seem to.indicate its not.likely fraud in Detroit but just a set of data on how Detroit votes that is an outlier from how most us votes since detroitt biased.always so democrat. I'm guessing I must have stated that poorly
Or fraud is institutionalized in Detroit?
If it’s fraud then why did Trump actually get a higher percentage of the Detroit vote in 2020 than he did in 2016? He improved by roughly 2%. He still received a very small,% of the Detroit vote, but he received more of it in 2020 than in 2016 while Biden received roughly the same number of votes in Detroit as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. In Philadelphia, Trump also did better than he did in 2016 while Biden did slightly worse than Hillary. If you’re going to commit fraud, why would you allow Trump to improve on his 2016 results? Also, if your going to commit fraud and manufacture votes, you would necessarily need to bump up voter turnout - after all, those fake votes would need to come from somewhere. But turnout in Detroit in 2020 was under 50%, roughly in line with 2016. The statistical data provided in the paper just reflects the artifacts of counting mail-in ballots. It takes much longer and the results are released in batches that appear as spikes when votes are reported. The total Detroit vote count in 2020 is consistent with the reported vote spikes, with a very large number of Detroit voters using mail-in ballots that take much longer to count. There is nothing nefarious in these statistics.
Turnout is 19% higher in Kent County than in 2016. That's a lot
Nationwide its 15.1. Michigan is 15.4. That why Detroit at 5% with better numbers for trump this year than 2016 2012 2008 such an easy example to refute
Yes, it was. Turnout was higher almost everywhere - except Detroit. And within that 19% higher turnout, Biden improved on Hillary’s 2016 Kent county results by about 3% and Trump support declined by about 6%. That is consistent with Trump’s erosion of support in suburban counties and Biden’s improvement in those same areas. In Pa, Biden got less of the vote in Philadelphia in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016, but he improved in the 5 Philly suburban counties between 2% and 7% - consistent with what happened in Kent County, Michigan. Are you claiming there was vote fraud in Kent County because Biden won there?
Since at least 2008. They are dedicated and consistent and they actually did a worse job of it in2020...that seems a stretch though
That could be :). Do we have a sorted list of the vote breakdown for large cities? Would Detroit be #1 democrat city? What about LA, NYC and Philly?
Also any truly educated cannot possibly believe socialism is in the future of our country. Get real and see that a civil war will happen if you can't wait for legal battles to have their day.
Very well put.
I think the authors explained random sampling, which has nothing to do with whether an ejecting is hated or not. The authors don't conclude anything between the 2016 election outcome or this one, they just discuss the large vote"dump" for this election, and claiming people are talking statistics or their ass is not an argument but rather your lack of one.
This also occurred in Detroit in 2016, 2012, 2008 ...that's actual data. It was more pronounced in those other years than 2020. I'm pretty sure they were tracking percentage not total.for anomaly ..and in Detroit the percentage is.not an anomaly when looked at historically. I don't want the.data.to.go away.
Have a.masters on engineering and have worked closely with stats for 27years. Probably have spent 15000 hours of my life analyzing them. Sometimes raw data. Sometimes.data with a bias ($ argument). Not usually political data though spent about 10 hrs.looking at.this this point I'm sending doesn't require that background. All the analysis is up in Michigan's website.back to 2008 and its.really simple division to show data in Detroit did not shift !pre.to.biden
So used to watching the news, nobody knows what to do when confronted with reality!
Detroit has skewed 3% or less republican in 2016 2012 2008........even with the absentee ballot skew this data looks like a normal Detroit dump to me
What's a normal big city dump? Is Detroit anomalous even within big cities?
Also, the argument is simpler. Vast counts were made without meaningful partisan Republican oversight. This data is statistically anomalous so prove to us that 10's of thousands (if not 100's of thousands) of votes from these precincts are not fraudulent.
They can't, they have no Republican to vouch for their results, so the entire precinct votes should be thrown out (at least for the vote counts reported that were not properly witnessed). Lack of proper partisan Republican supervision alone invalidates these votes. The moral cowardice of Republicans not to demand throwing out these votes is telling.
That is simply not true. every single present as observers from both parties as well as non-partisan observers. Every single one in America. Oh well. Now you know.
Your post above isn't even comprehensible.
YOU: "every single present as observers from both parties as well as non-partisan observers. Every single one in America."
Who could possibly give you a "like" let alone two "likes" (up to this point in time)?
You should know if Biden becomes president then in two years he will be impeached for his "laptop from hell" problem.
Biden, the whole Democrat party for that matter, are China's bitches.
Frank, they will just say the laptop was planted by Putin. That is the standard leftist explanation for every fact that shows they are wrong.
https://lh3.google.com/u/0/d/0BzTqxXk7Qc-oZEhJS2ZST2pBVlE=w402-h300-p-k-nu-iv2
https://apnews.com/article/cd2da448a9db6af11d8c10e9c3f3495b
The evidence on said laptop is over the top. Hunter is caught in flagrante delicto literally and figuratively. It is inarguable that the laptop is true.
https://lh3.google.com/u/0/d/0BzTqxXk7Qc-oZEhJS2ZST2pBVlE=w402-h300-p-k-nu-iv2
There is zero evidence that it is even, or ever was, a possession of Hunter Biden. If it is, and there are illegal activities exposed by it, you don’t think Bill Barr would’ve indicted him? FF ass man, that would’ve happened before the election. I realize I’m reasoning with a two year old here......
And you’re calling the Russian conspiracy with the Republicans a hoax? Now I know why there is a “do not ingest internally“ warning on rat poison. For short bussers like you three Uninformed hayseeds.
Biden's laptop from hell? What on earth. Last I checked Hunter Biden wasn't just elected President.
Dear Sarah,
The thing of it is... well... the Biden family (Joe, Hunter, and Jim) has been accused of being a grifting family off the backs of the American people for their misplaced trust in Joe Biden.
The laptop elucidates the fact fantabulously. It shows how Joe is compromised with a good number of foreign governments.
Some messages on the laptop can be verifiably true while others can still be planted. As with all things let the investigations and due process play out before jumping to any conclusions. Im sure the Republican Senate will be up to this if there is merit in this case
We have known issues regarding Ukraine and China (among other countries) that the laptop verifies. We have testimony from Tony Bobulinski clarifying Joe Biden's knowing role in the Biden family business schemes. This evidence is real while that used to impeach Trump was.... to put it plainly... trumped up fiction writing.
Biden deserves to be impeached (and convicted) right now. You can be impeached at any time (in or out of office) and prevented from taking office.
What Democrats did to Bork, Thomas, Kavanaugh and Trump deserves payback. Democrats are uncivil rats with little to no wisdom in governing a republic and all kinds of means and will to rule like communists Antifa style.
This is a lie! Observers were excluded. We all know why.
You obviously have access to the Internet. You should use it. It is allowed in every precinct in the country. If they weren’t there, tough shit.
Just because you say so? To call you dumber than a box of rocks good insult the gravel in my driveway.
There's currently massive evidence, including signed affidavits and other witness testimony, contradicting you.
https://hereistheevidence.com/
LOL Like that’s a fucking credible source? It’s crowd source, from Americans. Most, idiots.That’s not evidence. Sorry. A blog is just somebody keyboarding random opinions, agendas, or bullshit. In this case, bullshit. No fucking way 9500 dead people returned mail in ballots. The signatures have to match. Few, if any of the things on that list are even relevant to the discussion. Today is Today is “Take that bullshit somewhere else” day. You should upgrade calendars.
Ben Dover: Do you have any words other than "Bullshit" in your vocabulary?
The signitures did not have to match. Quit lyin The law was not followed.
That’s the stupidest thing I’ve seen on the Internet in a long time. Should I get you a trophy?
I’m sorry, that’s how they validate the ballots in every single state. Impressive Public display of stupidity though. Well done
Ha ha ... you believe that???
You just invalidated every single thing you are spouting...you are a leftist know-nothing. Your earlier ad hominem attacks and profanity gave that away ahead of this current ridiculous statement.
Excuse me? My profanity is evidence of my complete outraged at your stupidity. My profanity is evidence of my complete outraged at your stupidity. Nothing anyone has said that I have commented to has keyboard and a verifiable, empirical truth about voter fraud evidence. Nothing anyone has said that I have commented to has keyboarded a verifiable, empirical truth about voter fraud evidence. If you don’t like the way I have said it, that’s on you.
The longer I read these posts the more I think Ben is probably a Chinese spy sent to rial us all up. Everything he says is bombastic but not connected to anything discussed in the article or follow up.
The data above is indeed rational evidence, not empiricle evidence. However the 200 witness testimonies being put forward by Sidney Powell is empirical evidence. Every time empirical evidence is presented, the character of the witness is attacked. This rational evidence from data freely available from the NYT is much more damning as it is harder to refute without drawing the conclusion of voter fraud. If you want empirical evidence of voter fraud look no further that the 1,017 proven cases that has lead to 917 prosecutions so far. https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/docs/pacei-voterfraudcases.pdf
You need to research the subject. You don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about. No matter how big your tantrum, it’s still bullshit. Find a state that it’s even legal to do so. None.
Burden of proof remains on the plaintiff, in this case Trump. Lack of Republican observation at this point is an allegation, likely true to an extent but not an abosulute FACt as established in court yet. Lets see how the courts rule, and abide by the final ruling.
No, affidavits, videos, and a Pennsylvania court order already prove that Republican partisans were kept from performing their oversight function in a meaningful way.
We have precincts that said counting was done for the night. Sending poll watchers home while they continued to "count the votes". Absolutely outrageous. And then during those dark counting hours Biden spikes in vote count that some say the machines could not achieve in the time period. These elections officials must now prove they did not defraud their voters and the voters of all of America.
This is so shamefully third world. Take it from someone who lived the 3rd world life and has family in the third world laughing their asses off at YOU and me.
I think you could put a nice bow on this if you looked at the binomial distributions of vote batches by states separated by vote type (in person, Election Day vs. early/absentee). A concept that you present here is very analogous and, I think, amenable to a binomial analysis of the data. Essentially every single ballot counted is a boolean trials and a "batch" of boolean trials can be represented by a binomial distribution. A coin flip is the classic case - the chances of success (lets call that getting heads") is 50% on any given coin toss. However, you are not guaranteed to get exactly 5 heads in ten trials. The chances of that are only 20%. However, there is a cumulative probability of 83% that you will get between 4-8 heads in ten trials. The distribution substantially narrows as the number of trials goes up. To put the numbers in class with the numbers you discuss here, if you flipped a coin 100,000 times you only 0.25% chance of getting EXACTLY 50,000 heads but the cumulative probability of getting between 49,000-51,000 heads is nearly 100%
Large batches of boolean trials that differ significantly from the individual trial success rate are not really believable. I think this tracks very well with what you are saying here.
so how does it apply here? we arent flipping coins right? We know post priori for a given state what the final distribution (including any shenanigans) of votes were for early/mail-in and for in person Election Day. These splits are the boolean probability of success on any given trial.
So lets say that mail in/early went 80-20 biden in all these states with these anomalous. The probability of success is 80% on any given trial. The cumulative probability of any batch as large as Michigans going 95% plus to biden - even with the "coin" weighted this heavily is literally zero. As in my computer cannot calculate a number this small.
So, I would propose you run a binomial "weighted coin" analysis on all these batches nationwide, state by state with the weight of the coin determined by the final results of two populations: in person Election Day and absentee/early voting. I think you will find every other state has batches that are generally, statistically, believable, except for WI, MI, GA, PA
I can help with generating a script if you like. please reach out! I think this approach is a way to make this digestible to the general public!
None of that is relevant. Those numbers simply mean people who wanted to vote for Joe didn’t want to expose themselves to a deadly virus, the voters in those particular states or motivated to evict the squatter in the White House. Let’s do precinct by precinct Senate races in Texas, Florida, South Carolina, Maine, and Kentucky first.
Wow, what a hot sloppy illogical mess!
"None of that is relevant. Those numbers simply mean...."
Wait, does it mean nothing? Or does it mean only what you think it means. Contradicting yourself in the same thought - something only a liberal is capable of.
"Lets do precinct by precinct...." in all the places republicans won senate seats? why, I thought this was the most secure, totally no fraud election in history of man, right? Why would we need to do that. Why are you interested in those places? We can't conclude anomalous statistics is the result of fraud right? Its not relevant right?
Why are you questioning and endangering our democracy in this reckless way! Your betters have already told you what to think about the results, submit prole!
But get this, yeah I AGREE with you, lets do it. The amount of voter fraud that is acceptable, whether my team or yours, is precisely zero. Although some places handle their absentee ballots differently then at the precinct level (ahem, Detroit for example) so we will have to go county by county and follow where the data leads us, deal? although I suggest you do some light reading on probability and cumulative distribution functions then you will understand better what I am talking about above. Can we maybe look into why the absentee ballot rejection rate, for a year with overwhelming numbers of ballots cast this way, were nearly a factor of 30 lower than is typical. More so if you consider that rejection rates for first timers can be 6 times higher than your seasoned absentee voter and its unquestionable that the bulk of the increase this year was first timers. We can look at your senate races too!
"those particular states motivated to evict the squatter in the White House..." yeah, those voters were super motivated to vote out the guy in the White House and vote in vanilla carbon copies of their run of the mill republican rep and senator - that's what it was! The guy got 10 million MORE votes than 4 years ago, increased his vote share of minorities and several other groups across the board - it was the white males that deserted him! Yeah, that makes sense too! People were showing up for their standard issue republican not the guy drawings tens of thousands of people to his rallies.
"expose themselves to a deadly virus". Please guy, grow up and put on your big boy pants you're embarrassing yourself.
These leftists are so damned pitiful!
Because I call you on your bullshit? Besides voter ID, and marked paper ballots, ending gerrymandering, going back to the original policy the framers implemented concerning the electoral college,(ratio of electors to popular vote. Not winner take all), Along with the English list of GOP voter suppression, having an IQ above your waist size would be good. along with the English list of GOP voter suppression, having an IQ above your waist size would be good. Pitiful is just saying stupid platitude with zero evidence.
Ben, you need to learn when to slink away. You've been owned here. You are just a mean blowhard, nothing more and have been shown to add pretty much nothing of value to an otherwise good discussion. Please, quit embarrassing yourself.
Very well stated sir! But you are engaging a liberal and logical reasoning does not apply. Fake News has advanced their TDS and 24/7 mask wearing has cut the oxygen to their brains. I would judge this particular fellow is sadly at Stage IV TDS. Best course of action is to not engage. This guy's screen name tells you everything you need to know.
I still have an addressed your no thanking the Senate race the results need audited, completely forensically investigated. Hypocrisy much? Elections where my candidate won aren’t fraud...... Sure thing, Kevin.
Read carefully for comprehension. I am for auditing anything, including races my team won. Are you? didn't think so.
His reply is so full of stupid shit I must expand on exposing it.
White women are the demographic that Trump lost. Uneducated white males voted for him at the same, or even higher rate in certain state than in 16.
11 million more people voted for his opponent then any presidential candidate in history. That sentence contains the same relevance as your “10 million more votes“ nonsense. NONE
This solution would be hand marked, hand counted, paper ballots. You should get busy on that.
The Republicans had a chance to add a degree of security to elections by passing the #SafeAct. They declined.
statistics don’t mean a damn thing.
You sir, have no standing.
My god dude, here, this is a liberal rag that you probably like that says exactly what I said:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/11/07/election-2020-exit-polls-trump-minorities-race-women-column/6191966002/
Yeah, Joe Biden, who hardly left his basement and can't hardly form a complete sentence, got about 10 million more votes than Barack Obama in 2008 too, sure. Keep dreaming.
Sure, hand marked, hand counted paper ballots, I can agree to that. Mandatory state issued ID and absentee voting only with a damn good excuse (COVID isn't one, neither is not wanting to put on pants and the polling station is far). Mail in voting should be like abortion was supposed to be - safe, legal, and rare. This concept of mailing ballots to all voters, putting ballot drop off boxes on the side of the road (Stacy Abrams says its a poll tax for people to have to put postage on their ballots), only invites shenanigans is a massive invitation for fraud and only one side wants more of it.
There should be zero electronic devices in any part of the vote counting process. There is no way to make them secure (I work with cyberwarfare guys, they think these things are a joke). Can you explain to me why a tabulator would ever need a weighted race feature? why anyone would think connecting one of these things to the internet would ever be a good idea (even if it is a valid reason like a firmware update) or why in the hell it would have features where you connect USB drives to them. Yeah - no way that could be taken advantage of. You can't and no one can. Before you respond you should carefully evaluate the public records of senator's Wyden, Klobuchar, and Warren on this topic - I disagree with them on everything of substance but on this point they are absolutely correct. You may want to consult the PBC's program on issues with Georgia's dominion system THE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION.
But, hey, the "right" guy got elected so it must be the will of the people - forgot the past 4 years of stolen election talk, discussing around EC electors "voting their conscience" (see: Michael Moore and others), and claims of....wait for it.....dominion voting systems changing votes.
First, relativity referring to supposed election fraud. Again, there is none.
Second, provide a source for those numbers you just threw out. It’s bullshit until you do so.
“Exposing themselves to a deadly virus“ Word for Word exactly what I said. I didn’t stutter. Yesterday and American died every 40 seconds. Over 2200 people. If you dumb fuckers would do the right thing for 90 days, all of this shit would be behind us.
Fucking morons like you are the reason this place is a Third World shit hole. You have the political acumen of a rock. You’re just a skin field shit bag uneducated untraveled dumb fuck who thinks they know thanks.
You’re wrong.
Your metric means nothing (see I can play that game too, difference is, I am right). Here are a few that do. Seroprevlance studies (google is your friend) have routinely found that the infection rate, which is the only rate that matters, is anywhere from 5->30 times higher than the case rate (the number of cases uncovered by testing. The CDC estimated that this number, on average is about 10x. Therefore the infection fatality rate is 5-30 times lower than what you would calculate from the case fatality rate or 10x lower on average PER THE CDC. Other peer reviewed studies have concluded that the average time to death from a confirmed case is 10-14 days. This is born out by simply looking at the peak of the 7 day case and death averages from the spring and summer bumps. Europe, also has the same exact behavior. The current infection fatality in both Europe is around 0.12%. If you insist on looking at the statistical tails that the media is fond of reporting on and using a 28 day period the IFR climbs to an astonishing 0.16%. Or statistically not any different than your average flu. To be clear, the spring was a more serious event - mostly so by enlightened northeastern liberals ensuring that the most vulnerable amongst us were the primary population exposed to the virus and partially because no good therapeutics were available at the beginning of the outbreak. Even the liberals have figured out that sending positive patients to nursing homes is not good policy and now we have a wide array of therapeutics. This virus has been neutered already and the vaccine which will crush it.
You did know that Europe is just getting over the hump of around 300,000 cases a day right and are currently seeing almost 6000 deaths a day (a death every 15 seconds!!!!!!) right or did your liberal rags not mention what has been going on over there since September. Are they "a third world shit hole" too? Are they "dumb fuckers" who "need to do the right thing for 90 days"? Didn't think so, you just had no god damn idea what was going on in the world because the NYT and the Washington post didn't tell you to think it. Statistically Europe has faired no better than us and it shouldn't be surprising. The ultimate conceit that has been exposed in this whole episode is the total arrogance and conceit of the intelligentsia, the idea that we could control a virus to any real degree is the stuff only a moronic academic could think would be possible. The reality is much starker and much simpler - any organization that can summon the political will to do draconian things in response to a virus fundamentally has too much inertia to do anything useful. period. This country hit the peak of the infection curve this week and the death curve will peak 10-14 days from now - just like the previous two bumps and just like the current European outbreak and its previous outbreak. You know what didn't do anything? Lockdowns. Everyone jumping on that boat right now is already too late by about a month.
I could give a shit about political acumen, I care about the truth. Numbers don't lie, and you are dumb as a bag of hammers. I work in a high technology field. I am a patented inventor and I have sent experiments to the moon. The shit I do will someday in 20-30 years show up in a Mercedes S-class and people like you will say "wow, look at what those germans can do", yeah, that's what it was.
Not relevant?? Return to you bridge troll.
by the way, the histograms you show, in bulk and with exception of the extreme outliers, tend to follow a binomial distribution by eye. Happy to look more closely at this with you.
Another question I have: using this type circumstantial evidence and dozens of affidavits, why is the FBI not retrieving and seizing ballots to examine them? What is going on?
likely the same reason the FBI did nothing with Hunter's laptop. They're swamp & part of the coup
Right. Like if he did something illegal Donnie’s personal butt boy Bill Barr would have him immediately arrested. Trust me, thinking is way above your pay grade. You should let someone else do that for you.
The FBI is still working around the clock to try and establish motive....
If there was any fraudulent ballots, you don’t think the head treason weasel at DOJ wouldn’t be all over this? I’ll tell you what’s going on. The GOP and the squatter in the White House are full of shit. And you’re a sucker
I would like to see these fine statisticians finesse their legal disclaimers. They keep saying, "these anomalies are not evidence of fraud but indicative of possible fraud and worthy of further investigation." I keep reading these or similar hedges. However, this language is just an invitation for a hostile judge to discount this report as no evidence at all. It is important to shift the burden to the Biden team, and these statistics should be sufficient to do that.
I am pretty sure that the statisticians would all agree that these extreme anomalies would establish some sort of mistake, manipulation or fraud unless someone could come forward with evidence of some plausible non-fraudulent explanation for these extreme anomalies. So, the hedge should read, "this report is not conclusive evidence of fraud but is compelling circumstantial evidence and should be sufficient evidence to establish the election results are tainted unless someone can come forward and provide a plausible non-fraudulent explanation for these seemingly inexplainable anomalies." We need to put the ball onto their side of the court. Make Biden try to explain these ridiculous results.
Great point. Perhaps, the 'indicative of possible fraud' statements should be, justly, followed up with "and thus, it is imperative that we audit the 'dumps' or 'batches' in question to better understand what happened". This doesn't directly shift burden of proof to a campaign (not should it, at this point) but, it does create a more than sufficient argument to audit the culprit batches. Furthermore, if the election officials cannot parse our the ballots from the 'dumps' in question...then, we're raising very significant questions about how we validate our elections. After all, what is the point of all this expensive ballot tech if we can forensically audit the votes in any meaningful way?
If you agreed, why say the exact opposite? These statistical anomalies should make a prima facile case of fraud. Trump wins UNLESS Biden can come forward with persuasive evidence of a plausible explanation that doesn’t involve fraud. Of course our elections should be verifiable, but they were intentionally made unverifiable. The question is, given these clearly anomalous results, who should have the burden of conducting the recount or audit. I say Biden should have the burden to prove these banana republic election results are legitimate. The burden of proof decides most legal disputes. Whoever has the burden usually loses for lack of evidence. I think these statistical anomalies are persuasive enough to shift the burden to Biden.
The burden of proof is on Trump and the GOP. You can’t prove a negative. That is a 100%, ironclad fact. Not some dumb shit opinion, as you are offering. No wonder we’re Third World shit hole. Idiots like you running around, loose. And voting!
It's not a negative, it's a positive. Thousands of positive votes for Biden, none for Trump. Taking it up the ass while thumbing your shitphone must be difficult, eh?
You can’t prove a negative. It’s impossible. I’ll bet the bus you wrote to school and was so short, the driver could reach back and open the emergency exit door. Without leaving his seat.
That would be, rode. It's likely he did write something while he rode on the bus, but at least he went to school. You should check your grammar before attempting to ridicule someone on their education.
I’m using iPhone dictation while driving a really big powerful John Deere tractor on uneven terrain. Get with Tim Apple on that. LOL
So you're doing TWO things wrong at the same time.
You are a lying sack of shit. "[R]eally big powerful John Deere" my ass.
We do it everyday in courts of law all across America. It is a Plaintiff's burden of proof initially -- until he establishes a prima facie case. A prima facie case is a case with sufficient evidence (if no other evidence is introduced) to carry the Plaintiff's burden. Then the burden shifts to the Defendant to refute the plaintiff case. In this case, Trump is the Plaintiff. These statistical studies are sufficient evidence to establish a prima facie case of election fraud. It carries Trump's burden of proof and shifts the burden to Biden to prove there was no fraud. He can do that by presenting credible evidence of a plausible explanation for these statistical anomalies. If he cannot explain these anomalies, Trump should prevail -- either through court or by election nullification by the state legislatures.
Shift the burden to Biden? Shift the burden to Biden? Um....You can’t prove a negative, Prof Einstein
There may be better places for you than this thread, like Tel Aviv.
Believe me, as soon as my family responsibilities are finished concerning my 86-year-old mother, I’m out of this Third World shit hole. I’ve been to over 90 countries. There are at least 50 that the people know how to live. We aren’t one of them. Wanna contribute to my expatriatism?
Bye.
I just took you off of my postcard list....lol
??? And just exactly what is the reference to that complete lack of witticism?
I am from Iraq and I am IT Expert. I say, just listen to the evidence, it speaks for itself. There is massive Fraud for sure. Look at the spikes in the votes, with Biden won 99% of the spike ballots; this is impossible except if there is a fraud, and there is definitely data feed to the system. The sharp differences between the numbers of mailing ballots sent versus what has received and in the system; the difference cannot be explained except it is a fraud. The switches of the votes inside the voting machine; this cannot happen unless there is a muddling with the voting machines, either remotely, locally or through enabling a hidden code, or even using triggers through internal setup events. All voting machines are connected to the internet, and I am not sure why, and this alone would allow the software manufacturing company or anyone else to muddle with the machines through many ways. The Machine are not backup by paper work, and there is no audit trail enabled inside them to track events to see what is going inside them during the vote and account for every event; this is a lone is a setup for Fraud. The unsupervised staff muddling with Ballots; how this could happen and there are clear rules; and this election is for the President of the USA. The List of the Frauds is so long, it just need someone fair to listen to it.
Don't quit your day job.
The ONLY way to correct this is to have ALL votes tabulated in the precinct in which they are cast, a big PITB but the only solution.
No device used in voting or counting should be connected to the internet...period! We were assured that this was the case (here in Georgia) when the law suits started flying over "voter suppression" after 2016/2018 elections.
If these anomalies are allowed to become the standard which our elections conducted, you might as well get a big straw hat, a sleeveless shirt and a machete. BANANA REPUBLIC!
They are, and have been since the first machines in ‘74. Where are you been?